The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study.

There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra-high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at-risk (BAR)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the BAR criteria.

The value of visual fleece assessment in addition to objective measurements in identifying Angora goats of greater clean mohair production

Visual assessment of the fleece of Merino sheep is an accepted method to aid genetic improvement but there is little evidence to support the use of visual assessment for improving mohair production. This paper examines the extent that visual traits, including staple length, character (staple crimp), staple definition, tippiness, style and staple entanglement, are related to clean fleece weight in animals of similar live weight and mean fibre diameter (MFD) from the same flock. Measurements were made over 9 shearing periods on a population of castrated Angora males (wethers) goats representing the current range and diversity of genetic origins in Australia, including South African, Texan and interbred admixtures of these and Australian sources (these different genetic origins are defined as Breed in this work). Data on genetic origin, sire, dam, lifetime characteristics (date of birth, dam age, birth weight, birth parity (single or twin), weaning weight), live weight, fleece growth and visual fleece attributes were recorded. A restricted maximum likelihood (REML) model was developed to relate clean fleece weight with age, MFD, average fleece-free live weight, lifetime characteristics and visual fleece attributes. There were separate linear responses of clean fleece weight to MFD and staple length for each age group, a quadratic response to the square root of average fleece-free live weight, an effect of sire breed and linear responses to dam age, staple definition score and character. Depending on age at shearing, the increase in clean fleece weight was between about 50 and 80. g for each increase of 1. μm in MFD. At similar MFD, clean fleece weight was generally greater at summer shearings compared with winter shearings. There was a strong increase in clean fleece weight with average fleece-free live weight up to around 50. kg but little response in clean fleece weight for animals larger than 50. kg. There was some evidence of a smaller increase in clean fleece weight as the age of dam increased. There was an effect of Breed in the model but this effect disappeared when a random sire effect was included in the model. There was a positive response to staple length at some age groups but the response did not differ from zero in other age groups. This response varied from negligible to about 70. g per 1. cm increase in staple length. Clean fleece weight increased about 40. g per unit increase in staple definition score and increased about 30. g for every 4 units increase in the number of staple crimps. There was no evidence that clean fleece weight was affected by staple style, staple tip score or staple entanglement score or lifetime factors such as birth weight, date of birth, birth parity, or weaning weight. The results show that using a combination of measuring MFD and visually assessing the fleece for staple length, staple definition and crimps can help identify the most profitable Angora goats. In this process, the objective measurement of MFD appears essential. Visual assessment will provide some extra benefit in identifying these animals above that provided by measuring MFD alone. Animal size should be considered by mohair producers when identifying more productive mohair producing animals. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

The value of retail rents with regression models: a case study of Shanghai

Abstract
Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the determinants of the retail space rent in Shanghai.
Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic model and spatial regression models are used in the paper. The problem of spatial autocorrelation is tested by Moran’s I statistics, and the root mean square error (RMSE) test is performed to find out the best model.
Findings – The significant explaining variables are the age, the area of retail space, the distance to the Jing An CBD centre, the type of the retail and the district of the property. A new classification of district in retail research context is suggested in this paper, and it is proved to be better than the districts set up by government to explain the retail rent variation.
Originality/value – This paper presents the first empirical study about the retail rental market in Shanghai. The research helps retail property investors and retail tenants deepen their understanding of the retail market in Shanghai. Spatial econometrics techniques are first introduced into the empirical retail rent research to produce a more precise estimation.

Rebound or resignation: developing a predictive model of return to subjective wellbeing set-point

Though subjective wellbeing (SWB) is generally stable and consistent over time, it can fall below its set-point in response to adverse life events. However, deviations from set-point levels are usually only temporary, as homeostatic processes operate to return SWB to its normal state. Given that income and close interpersonal relationships have been proposed as powerful external resources that are coincident with higher SWB, access to these resources may be an important predictor of whether or not a person is likely to recover their SWB following a departure from their set-point. Under the guiding framework of SWB Homeostasis Theory, this study considers whether access to a higher income and a committed partner can predict whether people who score lower than normal for SWB at baseline will return to normal set-point levels of SWB (rebound) or remain below the normal range (resigned) at follow-up. Participants were 733 people (53.3 % female) from the Australian Unity Longitudinal Wellbeing Study who ranged in age from 20 to 92 years (M = 59.65 years; SD = 13.15). Logistic regression analyses revealed that participants’ demographic characteristics were poor predictors of whether they rebounded or resigned. Consistent with homeostasis theory, the extent of departure from the proposed normal SWB set-point at baseline was significantly associated with rebound or resignation at time 2. These findings have implications for the way that SWB measures can be used in professional practice to identify people who are particularly vulnerable to depression and to guide the provision of appropriate and effective therapeutic interventions.

The use of a nursing informatics system as an exemplar to investigate business value of IT in healthcare

Researchers and decision makers in healthcare are taking great interest in clinical practices where there is a high potential to improve healthcare outcomes and reduce costs by incorporating a myriad of technology solutions. However, to date very few, if any of these IS/IT (information systems/information technology) solutions have realised the expected improvements to quality care with the expected cost reductions. This makes the need to evaluate the impact of IT on overall performance of clinical practices i.e. business value of IT a key strategic imperative in healthcare. To address this key need, we propose a comprehensive framework that conceptualises business value of IT in healthcare in different layers. To illustrate the proposed framework, a case study is used, which serves to examine the proposed conceptual model. The exemplar case study is an Australian-made nursing documentation system; an enterprise system that caters for multiple clinical users in acute healthcare contexts and hence provides appropriate richness to validate the proposed model.

Wild and banal: the value of the arts as commons

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the value of the arts play in public spaces in replicating a contemporary commons. Design/methodology/approach – The study is an exploratory investigation which uses a case study of cultural events in public parks – the Vancouver Parks Board’s fieldhouse residency program (2012-2015). The study uses content analysis of the social media sites created for these projects to identify how the sites and the cultural events were valued by stakeholders and participants. Findings – The paper finds that, in combination, the park events and the social media discussion of them function as a form of the commons, in which new urban communities are formed or defined around specific common social interests. Research limitations/implications – The paper finds that, in combination, the park events and the reflective engagement prompted by the social media discussion of them function as a form of the commons, in which new urban communities are formed or defined around specific common social interests. Practical implications – It is anticipated that cultural programs will increasingly interact with common public places. Social implications – The study supports the increased use of and recognition of public places as culturally significant. Originality/value – The study aims to encourage the expansion of arts and cultural policy and programs to incorporate common public places.

Resolving the value of the dingo in ecological restoration

There is global interest in restoring populations of apex predators, both to conserve them and to harness their ecological services. In Australia, reintroduction of dingoes (Canis dingo) has been proposed to help restore degraded rangelands. This proposal is based on theories and the results of studies suggesting that dingoes can suppress populations of prey (especially medium- and large-sized herbivores) and invasive predators such as red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) that prey on threatened native species. However, the idea of dingo reintroduction has met opposition, especially from scientists who query the dingo's positive effects for some species or in some environments. Here, we ask 'what is a feasible experimental design for assessing the role of dingoes in ecological restoration?' We outline and propose a dingo reintroduction experiment-one that draws upon the existing dingo-proof fence-and identify an area suitable for this (Sturt National Park, western New South Wales). Although challenging, this initiative would test whether dingoes can help restore Australia's rangeland biodiversity, and potentially provide proof-of-concept for apex predator reintroductions globally.

Using otolith microchemistry and shape to assess the habitat value of oil structures for reef fish

Over 7500 oil and gas structures (e.g. oil platforms) are installed in offshore waters worldwide and many will require decommissioning within the next two decades. The decision to remove such structures or turn them into reefs (i.e. 'rigs-to-reefs') hinges on the habitat value they provide, yet this can rarely be determined because the residency of mobile species is difficult to establish. Here, we test a novel solution to this problem for reef fishes; the use of otolith (earstone) properties to identify oil structures of residence. We compare the otolith microchemistry and otolith shape of a site-attached coral reef fish (Pseudanthias rubrizonatus) among four oil structures (depth 82-135 m, separated by 9.7-84.2 km) on Australia's North West Shelf to determine if populations developed distinct otolith properties during their residency. Microchemical signatures obtained from the otolith edge using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) differed among oil structures, driven by elements Sr, Ba and Mn, and to a lesser extent Mg and Fe. A combination of microchemical data from the otolith edge and elliptical Fourier (shape) descriptors allowed allocation of individuals to their 'home' structure with moderate accuracy (overall allocation accuracy: 63.3%, range: 45.5-78.1%), despite lower allocation accuracies for each otolith property in isolation (microchemistry: 47.5%, otolith shape: 45%). Site-specific microchemical signatures were also stable enough through time to distinguish populations during 3 separate time periods, suggesting that residence histories could be recreated by targeting previous growth zones in the otolith. Our results indicate that reef fish can develop unique otolith properties during their residency on oil structures which may be useful for assessing the habitat value of individual structures. The approach outlined here may also be useful for determining the residency of reef fish on artificial reefs, which would assist productivity assessments of these habitats.

Predictive mapping of abalone fishing grounds using remotely-sensed LiDAR and commercial catch data

Defining the geographic extent of suitable fishing grounds at a scale relevant to resource exploitation for commercial benthic species can be problematic. Bathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) systems provide an opportunity to enhance ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies for coastally distributed benthic fisheries. In this study we define the spatial extent of suitable fishing grounds for the blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) along 200 linear kilometers of coastal waters for the first time, demonstrating the potential for integration of remotely-sensed data with commercial catch information. Variables representing seafloor structure, generated from airborne bathymetric LiDAR were combined with spatially-explicit fishing event data, to characterize the geographic footprint of the western Victorian abalone fishery, in south-east Australia. A MaxEnt modeling approach determined that bathymetry, rugosity and complexity were the three most important predictors in defining suitable fishing grounds (AUC = 0.89). Suitable fishing grounds predicted by the model showed a good relationship with catch statistics within each sub-zone of the fishery, suggesting that model outputs may be a useful surrogate for potential catch.

The economic value of wetlands in developing countries: a meta-regression analysis

This paper presents the first comprehensive synthesis of economic valuations of wetlands in developing countries. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) is applied to 1432 estimates of the economic value of 379 distinct wetlands from 50 countries. We find that wetlands are a normal good, wetland size has a negative effect on wetland values, and urban wetlands and marine wetlands are more valuable than other wetlands. Wetland values estimated by stated preferences are lower than those estimated by market price methods. The MRA benefit transfer function has a median transfer error of 17%. Overall, MRA appears to be useful for deriving the economic value of wetlands at policy sites in developing nations.