Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Cross cultural perspectives of teachers : a study in three countries

In a shrinking world where globalization has blurred the boundaries across nation states and cultural divides, limitations on intercultural communication can readily give rise to glib generalizations and lack of understanding of diversity. Acknowledging the key role of teachers in shaping the views of future generations, this paper reports on the first stage of a research study on the intercultural understanding of teachers in Australia, Japan, and Thailand. Overall, the teacher participants had diverse cross-cultural experience, differing both in extent and nature of the contact. The methodology used a common survey instrument, except for its language of presentation. However, instead of using a traditional comparative approach to contrast responses of the three target groups, the study asked teachers to provide their perceptions of prevailing world views of people in their own AND the other two countries. The reciprocal nature of the observations provides a powerful methodology to explore perceived intercultural similarities and differences. The article also considers problems associated with response set in investigations of this kind. Three scales are considered — change through intervention, symbolic inner self, and independent thought and action — and the data reveal some similarities but also some striking differences in perceptions across countries. The differences signal a lack of intercultural understanding which is being explored further in a second, qualitative stage of the research. The findings indicate the need for increasing shared programs, exchanges and other opportunities for reciprocal relations that foster genuine dialogue, partnership and intercultural understanding between countries.

Measuring entrepreneurial activity in low-teledensity countries

In 2009, a team of 38 researchers carried out the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey of social and business entrepreneurial activity in the Kingdom of Tonga. The GEM survey estimates the proportion of the population involved in business and social start-ups and new firm creation. This paper describes not the results of the survey but rather the methodology employed. Because Tonga is spread out over a swath of the Pacific Ocean, the team faced challenges in terms of survey design, field work, logistics, and quality control. To meet the standards of rigour, we designed a 'ruggedised method' for measuring entrepreneurial activity. Countries with a teledensity threshold of less than 30% (fixed lines per 100 inhabitants) present serious challenges to survey designers. The study discusses questionnaire preparation, recruitment and training of interviewers as well as survey design issues such as sample size, response rate, sampling weights, and lessons learned. The report will assist other teams in measuring entrepreneurial activity in low-teledensity countries and provides guidelines when the study is repeated elsewhere. The study also proposes a way forward to incorporate new technologies such as tablet PCs, GPS, and GIS to address the dilemmas of measuring entrepreneurial activity in low-teledensity countries.

National environment and high potential new ventures in developing countries

This thesis examined the impact of macro environment factors on high-potential entrepreneurial venturing, culminating in a comprehensive, testable framework (derived from both extant theory and original empirical investigation) for analyzing and improving the capacity of any developing nation to become a dynamic entrepreneurial environment conducive to high-potential new venture creation.

Mobile solutions for front-line health workers in developing countries

We introduce an architecture for low-cost mobile Health (mHealth) applications that run on health-workers’ existing devices. Moreover, we envision extending the phone’s capabilities with an external to attach “sensor” modules, such as pulse oximeter, ECG and phonocardiogram. Our design principles are frugality and simplicity. We propose a comprehensive solution to aid health-workers in their daily tasks, at a low-cost and high penetration rate.

Are shocks to real output permanent or transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

Panel unit root and stationarity tests without structural breaks suggest that for eight Pacific island economies real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita contains a unit root. The panel stationarity test that accommodates structural change in the trend function, however, finds evidence in favour of regimewise trend stationarity. This result points to the importance of taking structural breaks into account. The finding implies that, for the period considered, the permanent secular component of output is dominated by transitory fluctuations accompanied by infrequent changes in the trend function. The only exceptions are Fiji and Kiribati, for which individual stationarity tests with multiple structural breaks suggest that real GDP per capita contains a unit root.

Is economic development in the Pacific island countries export led or import led?

This article examines the export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses for a panel of Pacific island countries—namely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu—for the period 1982–2004. The modelling is performed using a panel unit root, panel co-integration and panel Granger causality approach. We find bi-directional Granger causality for the panel of Pacific island countries between exports and economic growth, imports and economic growth, and exports and imports. The results suggest that the poor growth performance of many Pacific island countries reflects their poor export performance; however, if the supply-side constraints on exports are removed, there could be a virtuous cycle between economic growth and exports.