Listed property trusts and downside systematic risk sensitivity

Purpose: This paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).

Design/methodology/approach: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment-CAPM (LPM-CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.

Findings: The results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs' investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.

Practical implications: Investors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.

Originality/value: This study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs.

An exploration of the relationship between size and risk in a downside risk framework applied to Malaysian property shares

The relationship between size and risk (systematic and unsystematic risk) has received considerable attention in recent literature. However, these studies employ variance as the risk measure, which the appropriateness for using this risk measure is always questioned by researchers and practitioners due to its underlying strict assumptions. Therefore, there is crucial to adopt an alternative risk measure for ascertaining the relationships. The aim of the study is to examine the relationships between size and systematic downside risk and unsystematic downside risk in line with the theoretical sound of this risk measure. The empirical evidences reveal that the size is strongly correlated with unsystematic downside risk. While, there is a weak inverse relationship between size and systematic downside risk.

Curriculum for entrepreneurial creativity and resourcefulness in New Zealand

This thesis asks: ‘How can tertiary education nurture entrepreneurial creativity?’ Entrepreneurship is considered to be a vital determinant of economic growth and the entrepreneur is understood as someone who innovates and commercialises their own innovation. The setting is New Zealand which is struggling to make the shift from relying on primary production to becoming a ‘creative economy.’ The creative individual has been identified as a new mainstream but it is argued that in New Zealand, education provision is inadequate for supporting the development of the practice of entrepreneurship. The problem is not unique. Various writers are critical of business education generally, and of the mismatch between the passion and chaos in entrepreneurs’ lives and the way education programs are typically organised as a linear sequence of discipline-based courses with prescribed content, activities and outcomes. Rich data were gathered from in-depth interviews with twelve nascent, new or experienced entrepreneurs and two associates (one a marketer, the other a scientist). Each participant was drawn from a different area of economic endeavour. They were asked to share their stories and views about creativity, the connections between creativity and entrepreneurship, business success, formal and informal education, and ways to improve tertiary education programs. The research found that a suitable environment for nurturing creativity will most likely have structure but will also enable chaos. It will present opportunities for experiencing diversity, and will stimulate unconscious and conscious mental processes. It will provide scope for hard work that is fun and involves authentic risk-taking, and will enable both individual and purposeful teamwork. The study also found that business success is not based on knowledge but is rather about being resourceful. The becoming of the creative entrepreneur thus includes developing capability to network with peers and mentors and communicate with customers and staff, and developing passion for and resilience in the pursuit of a dream. The findings suggest that in an age of uncertainty, nurturing entrepreneurial creativity and resourcefulness requires learning to be viewed as a practice-based community process where knowing and doing are interwoven with being. It is argued that this needs to align with Ronald Barnett and Kelly Coate’s (2005) notion of ‘a curriculum for engagement.’ It is suggested that an entire program might simply invite students to work collaboratively to identify and exploit an entrepreneurial opportunity by producing and commercialising an appropriate product/service innovation; to undertake this work as two separate projects – one within an existing organisation, and the other as a new venture; and to theorise their work. It is proposed that a suitable framework lies in William Doll’s (2002) advocacy for a curriculum based on a matrix of five Cs: ‘currere,’ complexity, cosmology, conversation, and community. To these, creativity is added as a sixth C.

Breast cancer : the embodied transfer of uncertainty and risk

The thesis highlights how women reconstruct themselves after mammography, following a positive diagnosis of cancer, and post mastectomy. It juxtaposes women's experiences of breast cancer with doctors' perceptions of their role in treating patients, allowing an understanding of how risk and uncertainty are transferred between the private and public spheres.

Climate change research & responses on the Eyre Peninsula : Weaving natural resources management with community resilience planning

In the last 10 years climate change risk assessment has come to a head as a matter of discussion at all levels of governance. In an attempt to gain a co-ordinated appreciation, measure of scope and impact likelihood, and to better guide a holistic natural resources management strategy, the Eyre Peninsula Natural Resources Management Board has taken a comprehensive exclusive and coordinated approach at a regional level to this issue.

Water, agricultural sustainability, biodiversity enrichment and stabilisation, and community resilience planning are all integral features in this 'program' of research and engagement. The clear intent is to creatively drive change and socio-economic growth without compromising the significant aesthetic and biodiversity attributes of the landscape and its primary role as a dryland wheat producer. The 'program' involves clear practice-based research as to fact, fiction and perception, and the provision of scenarios as to vulnerability and resilience building to cater for climate change over the next 30 years but also to sensitively respond to propective mining growth for the Peninsula.

This paper reviews this 'program', the research and findings undertaken, the co-ordinated actions being taken, the importance of community engagement and resilence building, and the orchestration and propective execution of this 'program' by the Board.

The 'program' represents important case model in successful regional planning.

Association between hyperglycaemia and fracture risk in non-diabetic middle-aged and older Australians : a national, population-based prospective study (AusDiab)

Summary : The association between pre-diabetes and fracture risk remains unclear. In this large cohort of middle-aged and older Australian men and women without diabetes, elevated 2-h plasma glucose and pre-diabetes were associated with a reduced 5-year risk of low trauma and all fractures in women, independently of BMI, fasting insulin and other lifestyle factors.

Introduction : We aimed to (1) examine associations between fasting and 2-h plasma glucose (FPG and 2-h PG), fasting insulin and risk of low trauma and all fractures in non-diabetic adults and (2) compare fracture risk between adults with pre-diabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose) and those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT).

Methods : Six thousand two hundred fifty-five non-diabetic men and women aged ≥40 years with NGT (n = 4,855) and pre-diabetes (n = 1,400) were followed for 5 years in the AusDiab Study. Fractures were self-reported.

Results : Five hundred thirty-nine participants suffered at least one fracture (368 women, 171 men), of which the majority (318) occurred after a low-energy trauma (258 women, 60 men). In women, a 2-h PG ≥7.2 mmol/L (highest quartile) was associated with a decreased risk of low trauma and all fractures independent of age and BMI [OR (95% CI) for low trauma fractures, 0.59 (0.40–0.88)], but also fasting insulin, smoking, physical activity, history of fracture, dietary calcium and alcohol intake or menopausal status. There was no effect of 2-h PG on fracture risk in men [OR (95% CI), 1.39 (0.60–3.26)] or any relationship between fracture risk and quartiles of FPG or insulin in either sex. Compared to women with NGT, those with pre-diabetes had a reduced risk of fracture [OR (95% CI) for all fractures, 0.70 (0.52–0.95); for low trauma fractures, 0.75 (0.53–1.05)].

Conclusion : Elevated 2-h PG levels and pre-diabetes were inversely associated with low trauma and/or all fractures in non-diabetic women, independent of BMI and fasting insulin levels.

Splash!: a prospective birth cohort study of the impact of environmental, social and family-level influences on child oral health and obesity related risk factors and outcomes

Background: Dental caries (decay) is the most prevalent disease of childhood. It is often left untreated and can impact negatively on general health, and physical, developmental, social and learning outcomes. Similar to other health issues, the greatest burden of dental caries is seen in those of low socio-economic position. In addition, a number of diet-related risk factors for dental caries are shared risk factors for the development of childhood obesity. These include high and frequent consumption of refined carbohydrates (predominately sugars), and soft drinks and other sweetened beverages, and low intake of (fluoridated) water. The prevalence of childhood obesity is also at a concerning level in most countries and there is an opportunity to determine interventions for addressing both of these largely preventable conditions through sustainable and equitable solutions. This study aims to prospectively examine the impact of drink choices on child obesity risk and oral health status.
Methods/Design: This is a two-stage study using a mixed methods research approach. The first stage involves qualitative interviews of a sub-sample of recruited parents to develop an understanding of the processes involved in drink choice, and inform the development of the Discrete Choice Experiment analysis and the measurement instruments to be used in the second stage. The second stage involves the establishment of a prospective birth cohort of 500 children from disadvantaged communities in rural and regional Victoria, Australia (with and without water fluoridation). This longitudinal design allows measurement of changes in the child’s diet over time, exposure to fluoride sources including water, dental caries progression, and the risk of childhood obesity.
Discussion: This research will provide a unique contribution to integrated health, education and social policy and program directions, by providing clearer policy relevant evidence on strategies to counter social and environmental factors which predispose infants and children to poor health, wellbeing and social outcomes; and evidence-based strategies to promote health and prevent disease through the adoption of healthier lifestyles and diet. Further, given the absence of evidence on the processes and effectiveness of contemporary policy implementation, such as community water fluoridation in rural and regional communities it’s approach and findings will be extremely
informative.

Risk management, player welfare and privacy : player development managers and dilemmas for employee relations in Australian football league clubs

This paper reports on one aspect of a research project that was funded by the Australian Football League (AFL) to explore the emergence and evolution of a ‘professional identity’ for AFL footballers. The research was informed by Foucault's later work on the care of the Self to focus on the ways in which player identities are governed by coaches, club officials, and the AFL Commission/Executive; and the manner in which players conduct themselves in ways that can be characterised as professional - or not. The paper explores the roles of Player Development Managers (PDMs) in emerging processes of risk and player management. These roles increasingly involve PDMs in risk management practices and processes that can be seen as intrusive in players’ lives. These risk management processes raise a number of concerns about player privacy and the rights of Clubs to know what their employees are up to away from the workplace.

Statin use, bone mineral density, and fracture risk: Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Background Recent data suggest that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) decrease fracture risk and increase bone mineral density (BMD).

Methods This cross-sectional study is set in southeastern Australia. We evaluated the association between statin use, fracture risk, and BMD in 1375 women (573 with incident fractures and 802 without incident fracture, all drawn from the same community). Fractures were identified radiologically. Medication use and lifestyle factors were documented by questionnaire.

Results Unadjusted odds ratio for fracture associated with statin use was 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23-0.71). Adjusting for BMD at the femoral neck, spine, and whole body increased the odds ratio to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.25-0.80), 0.42 (95% CI, 0.24-0.75), and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.24-0.78), respectively. Adjusting for age, weight, concurrent medications, and lifestyle factors had no substantial effect on the odds ratio for fracture. Statin use was associated with a 3% greater adjusted BMD at the femoral neck (P = .08), and BMD tended to be greater at the spine and whole body but did not achieve statistical significance.

Conclusion The substantial 60% reduction in fracture risk associated with statin use is greater than would be expected from increases in BMD alone.

Individual, social, and physical environmental correlates of physical activity among young women at risk of depression

Background : A number of factors have been identified as important correlates of physical activity (PA) among young women. Young women at risk of depression have a greater likelihood of being physically inactive and it is unknown whether correlates differ for women at risk and not at risk of depression.

Methods : A sample of 451 women aged 18-35 years self-reported leisure-time PA, enjoyment of and self-efficacy for walking and vigorous PA, barriers, social support, access to sporting/leisure facilities and access to sporting equipment in the home. Depression risk was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (cut point ≥5). Logistic regression analyses examined differences in PA correlates among women at risk and not at risk of depression.

Results : Self-efficacy for vigorous PA was statistically different between groups in predicting odds for meeting PA recommendations but odds ratios were similar across groups. No other significant interactions between correlates and depressive symptoms were identified.

Conclusions : The findings suggest few differences in the individual, social and physical environmental correlates of PA among young women who are and are not at risk of depression. Further research is needed to confirm the existence of any PA correlates specific to this high-risk target group.

Principals and legal risk : complacency or concern?

There has been an increasing awareness across many jurisdictions of potential legal issues that might arise in schools. These issues range from bullying to sexual misconduct, from injury to negligence. In a recent study in Singapore, despite the increased attention to such issues, school principals displayed a range of attitudes toward legal risk and a diverse range of strategies to minimise it. The findings were compared to those from a small scale study of senior educators in Queensland in order to ascertain commonalities and differences of view. This paper summarises those views and suggests some basic principles to help those in positions of leadership to avert unwanted legal attention.

Cardiovascular risk factors and psychological distress in Australian farming communities

Objective:  To examine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, psychological distress and associations between physical and mental health parameters within a cohort of the Australian farming community.

Design:  Cross-sectional descriptive study.

Setting:  Farming communities across Australia.

Participants:  Data of men (n = 957) and women (n = 835) farmers from 97 locations across Australia were stratified into categories based on National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines.

Main outcome measure(s):  Prevalence of and interrelationship between overweight, obesity, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes risk and psychological distress.

Results:  There was a higher prevalence of overweight (42.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 34.2–50.8), obesity (21.8%, 95% CI, 18.3–25.3), abdominal adiposity (38.4% 95% CI, 24.5–52.5), hypertension (54.0%, 95% CI, 34.4–73.5) and diabetes risk (25.3%, 95% CI, 17.7–36.7) in the farming cohort compared with national data. There was also a positive significant association between the prevalence of psychological distress and obesity, abdominal adiposity, body fat percentage and metabolic syndrome in older (age ≥ 50 years) participants.

Conclusions:  This study group of farming men and women exhibited an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors and co-morbidities. The findings indicate a positive association between psychological distress and risk for developing CVD, particularly in the older farmers. If the younger cohort were to maintain elevated rates of psychological distress, then it is foreseeable that the next generation of farmers could experience poorer physical health than their predecessors.

Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D is associated with increased risk of the development of the metabolic syndrome at five years : results from a national, population-based prospective study (the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study : AusDiab)

Context: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration has been inversely associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the relationship between 25(OH)D and incident MetS remains unclear.

Objective: We evaluated the prospective association between 25(OH)D, MetS, and its components in a large population-based cohort of adults aged 25 yr or older.

Design: We used baseline (1999–2000) and 5-yr follow-up data of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

Participants: Of the 11,247 adults evaluated at baseline, 6,537 returned for follow-up. We studied those without MetS at baseline and with complete data (n = 4164; mean age 50 yr; 58% women; 92% Europids).

Outcome Measures: We report the associations between baseline 25(OH)D and 5-yr MetS incidence and its components, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, season, latitude, smoking, family history of type 2 diabetes, physical activity, education, kidney function, waist circumference (WC), and baseline MetS components.

Results: A total of 528 incident cases (12.7%) of MetS developed over 5 yr. Compared with those in the highest quintile of 25(OH)D (≥34 ng/ml), MetS risk was significantly higher in people with 25(OH)D in the first (<18 ng/ml) and second (18–23 ng/ml) quintiles; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.41 (1.02–1.95) and 1.74 (1.28–2.37), respectively. Serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with 5-yr WC (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.01), fasting glucose (P < 0.01), and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (P < 0.001) but not with 2-h plasma glucose (P = 0.29), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P = 0.70), or blood pressure (P = 0.46).

Conclusions: In Australian adults, lower 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with increased MetS risk and higher WC, serum triglyceride, fasting glucose, and insulin resistance at 5 yr. Vitamin D supplementation studies are required to establish whether the link between vitamin D deficiency and MetS is causal.

Do parents’ and children’s concerns about sports safety and injury risk relate to how much physical activity children do?

Objective To see whether concerns about injury risk relate to children's physical activity (PA).
Methods Two cohorts were recruited from 19 Australian schools and assessed in 2001 (T1), 2004 (T2) and 2006 (T3). The younger (n=162) was assessed at 6, 9 and 11years old, and the older (n=259) at 11, 14 and 16 years old. At T1 and T2, parents of the younger cohort reported on fear of child being injured, and whether child would be at risk of injury if they played organised sport; the older cohort self-reported injury fear. Accelerometers assessed PA at each time point. Linear regression models examined cross-sectional associations, and also associations between T1 injury fear and risk and T2 PA, and T2 injury fear and risk and T3 PA.
Results In the younger cohort at T2 (9 years), fear and risk were both negatively associated with moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) (β=−0.17, 95% CI −0.30 to −0.03 and β=−0.26, 95% CI −0.41 to −0.10) and also vigorous PA (VPA). Fear was also associated with moderate PA (MPA). For the older cohort at T1, injury fear was negatively associated with MVPA (β=−0.21, 95% CI −0.35 to −0.07) and also MPA and VPA. Parental perception of risk at T1 (6 years) was negatively associated with children's MPA at T2 (9 years) (β=−0.17, 95% CI −0.32 to −0.02). Sex did not moderate any association.
Conclusions Younger children and their parents need to know which sports have low injury risks. Some children may need increased confidence to participate.

Self-reported medication side effects in an older cohort living independently in the community - the Melbourne Longitudinal Study on Health Ageing (MELSHA) : cross-sectional analysis of prevalence and risk factors

Background Medication side effects are an important cause of morbidity, mortality and costs in older people. The aim of our study was to examine prevalence and risk factors for self-reported medication side effects in an older cohort living independently in the community.

Methods The Melbourne Longitudinal Study on Healthy Ageing (MELSHA), collected information on those aged 65 years or older living independently in the community and commenced in 1994. Data on medication side effects was collected from the baseline cohort (n = 1000) in face-to-face baseline interviews in 1994 and analysed as cross-sectional data. Risk factors examined were: socio-demographics, health status and medical conditions; medication use and health service factors. Analysis included univariate logistic regression to estimate unadjusted risk and multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess confounding and estimate adjusted risk.

Results Self-reported medication side effects were reported by approximately 6.7% (67/1000) of the entire baseline MELSHA cohort, and by 8.5% (65/761) of those on medication. Identified risk factors were increased education level, co-morbidities and health service factors including recency of visiting the pharmacist, attending younger doctors, and their doctor's awareness of their medications. The greatest increase in risk for medication side effects was associated with liver problems and their doctor's awareness of their medications. Aging and gender were not risk factors.

Conclusion Prevalence of self-reported medication side effects was comparable with that reported in adults attending General Practices in a primary care setting in Australia. The prevalence and identified risk factors provide further insight and opportunity to develop strategies to address the problem of medication side effects in older people living independently in the community setting.