101 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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For this contribution to the "Cartographies" section of the special issue on "Mapping Queer Bioethics," the author focuses on the concept of spatialized time as made material in the location of historical places, in particular as it relates to a reconsideration of approaches to Australian queer/LGBT youth education. Accordingly, the author employs historical maps as illustrative examples of spatialized time, reflecting on the relationships between historical knowledge and queer youth education.

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Fieldwork is viewed as integral to geography teaching and acclaimed benefits often include holistic, student-driven learning, where all the senses are engaged and the impacts are more than cognitive. While these benefits are often assumed, in this paper, I argue that geography fieldwork in schools is often teacher-led and focused on the intellectual task of knowledge acquisition and skill development. Based on a qualitative content analysis of examples of fieldwork in a state geography teachers’ journal, I assert that the affective and sensory dimensions, are often used to promote the benefits of fieldwork, but seldom explicitly addressed through fieldwork pedagogy and learning activities in school geography. I contend that this is a missed opportunity for a deeper, more embodied and critical engagement with, and response to, the places visited.

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Objective. General practice co-operatives have led to significant improvements in quality of life for general practitioners. Little is known about general practitioners’ own experiences with the working arrangements and governance of co-operatives. This study investigates GP satisfaction, the working environment, governance and future developments in co-operatives. Methods. A questionnaire was sent to GPs in two co-operatives in the Republic of Ireland, covering mixed urban and rural areas. Results. Of 221 GPs in the co-operatives, 82% responded and confirmed the co-operatives’ positive effects on their lives. However, 57% still received requests for out-of-hours care while off duty, most commonly from patients who preferred to see their own doctor. Half felt overburdened by out-of-hours work, especially those over 40 y of age. Twenty-five per cent were dissatisfied with the GP complaints mechanism. The majority (63%) would prefer a GP/ health board partnership for the organization of out of hours, while 23% wanted sole responsibility. GPs indicated a strong need for better ancillary services such as nursing, mental health, dentistry, pharmacy and social work. Access to records is an important issue in terminal care and mental illness. Conclusion. While GP co-operatives are a success story for general practice, they will work better for general practitioners and their patients if nursing, mental health, dentistry, pharmacy and social services are improved. Support and training is needed in mental health, palliative and emergency care to increase competence and reduce stress. GPs are willing to work with health authorities in further co-operative development. More attention needs to be paid to the complaints and suggestions of GPs in the running and governance of their co-operatives.

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Early empirical studies of exchange rate determinants demonstrated that fundamentals-based monetary models were unable to outperform the benchmark random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts while later papers found evidence in favor of long-run exchange rate predictability. More recent theoretical works have adopted a microeconomic structure; a utility-based new open economy macroeconomic framework and a rational expectations present value model. Some recent empirical work argues that if the models are adjusted for parameter instability, it is a good predictor of nominal exchange rates while others use aggregate idiosyncratic volatility to generate good predictions. This latest research supports the idea that fundamental economic variables are likely to influence exchange rates especially in the long run and further that the emphasis should change to the economic value or utility based value to assess these macroeconomic models.

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The intraday high–low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high-quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high–low range volatility consistently outperforms the other.

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The paper studies dynamic currency risk hedging of international stock portfolios using a currency overlay. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate time-varying covariance among stock market returns and currency returns. The conditional covariance is then used in the estimation of risk-minimizing conditional hedge ratios. The study considers seven developed economies over the period January 2002 to April 2010 and estimates daily conditional hedge ratios for portfolios of various stock market combinations. Conditional hedging is shown to dominate traditional static hedging and unconditional hedging in terms of risk reduction both in-sample and out-of-sample, especially during the recent global financial crisis. Conditional hedging also proves to consistently reduce portfolio risk for various levels of foreign investments.

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In this paper, we test whether oil price uncertainty predicts credit default swap (CDS) returns for eight Asian countries. We use the Westerlund and Narayan, 2011 and Westerlund and Narayan, 2012 predictability test that accounts for any persistence in and endogeneity of the predictor variable. The estimator also accounts for any heteroskedasticity in the regression model. In-sample evidence reveals that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for three Asian countries, whereas out-of-sample evidence suggests that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for six countries.

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In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.

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In this paper, we propose the hypothesis that cash flow and cash flow volatility predict returns. We categorize firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange into sectors, and apply tests for both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. While we find strong evidence that cash flow volatility predicts returns for all sectors, the evidence obtained when using cash flow as a predictor is relatively weak. Estimated profits and utility gains also suggest that it is cash flow volatility that is more relevant as a source of information than cash flow.

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This paper investigates the price volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets in the US using 5-min data over the period 2009-2012. Our main findings can be summarised as follows. First, we find strong evidence to demonstrate that the integration of the bid-ask spread and trading volume factors leads to a better performance in predicting price volatility. Second, trading information, such as bid-ask spread, trading volume, and the price volatility from cross-markets, improves the price volatility predictability for both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. Third, the trading strategy based on the predictive regression model that includes trading information from both markets provides significant utility gains to mean-variance investors.

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This paper examines volatility asymmetry in a financial market using a stochastic volatility framework. We use the MCMC method for model estimations. There is evidence of volatility asymmetry in the data. Our asymmetric stochastic volatility in mean model, which nests both asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) and stochastic volatility in mean models (SVM), indicates ASV sufficiently captures the risk-return relationship; therefore, augmenting it with volatility in mean does not improve its performance. ASV fits the data better and yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than alternatives. We also demonstrate that asymmetry mainly emanates from the systematic parts of returns. As a result, it is more pronounced at the market level and the volatility feedback effect dominates the leverage effect.