Propagation model of smartphone worms based on semi-Markov process and social relationship graph

Smartphone applications are getting more and more popular and pervasive in our daily life, and are also attractive to malware writers due to their limited computing source and vulnerabilities. At the same time, we possess limited understanding of our opponents in cyberspace. In this paper, we investigate the propagation model of SMS/MMS-based worms through integrating semi-Markov process and social relationship graph. In our modeling, we use semi-Markov process to characterize state transition among mobile nodes, and hire social network theory, a missing element in many previous works, to enhance the proposed mobile malware propagation model. In order to evaluate the proposed models, we have developed a specific software, and collected a large scale real-world data for this purpose. The extensive experiments indicate that the proposed models and algorithms are effective and practical. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Explore the hidden treasure in protein-protein interaction networks - an iterative model for predicting protein functions

Protein-protein interaction networks constructed by high throughput technologies provide opportunities for predicting protein functions. A lot of approaches and algorithms have been applied on PPI networks to predict functions of unannotated proteins over recent decades. However, most of existing algorithms and approaches do not consider unannotated proteins and their corresponding interactions in the prediction process. On the other hand, algorithms which make use of unannotated proteins have limited prediction performance. Moreover, current algorithms are usually one-off predictions. In this paper, we propose an iterative approach that utilizes unannotated proteins and their interactions in prediction. We conducted experiments to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed iterative approach. The iterative approach maximally improved the prediction performance by 50%-80% when there was a high proportion of unannotated neighborhood protein in the network. The iterative approach also showed robustness in various types of protein interaction network. Importantly, our iterative approach initially proposes an idea that iteratively incorporates the interaction information of unannotated proteins into the protein function prediction and can be applied on existing prediction algorithms to improve prediction performance.

Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for markov random fields on lattice

In this paper we generalize Besag's pseudo-likelihood function for spatial statistical models on a region of a lattice. The correspondingly defined maximum generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates (MGPLEs) are natural extensions of Besag's maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate (MPLE). The MGPLEs connect the MPLE and the maximum likelihood estimate. We carry out experimental calculations of the MGPLEs for spatial processes on the lattice. These simulation results clearly show better performances of the MGPLEs than the MPLE, and the performances of differently defined MGPLEs are compared. These are also illustrated by the application to two real data sets.

Discovering linear causal model from incomplete data

One common drawback in algorithms for learning Linear Causal Models is that they can not deal with incomplete data set. This is unfortunate since many real problems involve missing data or even hidden variable. In this paper, based on multiple imputation, we propose a three-step process to learn linear causal models from incomplete data set. Experimental results indicate that this algorithm is better than the single imputation method (EM algorithm) and the simple list deletion method, and for lower missing rate, this algorithm can even find models better than the results from the greedy learning algorithm MLGS working in a complete data set. In addition, the method is amenable to parallel or distributed processing, which is an important characteristic for data mining in large data sets.

Technology licensing and grantbacks under hidden information

This paper explores technological transfer via licensing under hidden information. The transaction features a quality choice of technology to be transferred between a licensor and a licensee that has private information about its ability to implement and refine the technology. The model accounts for the possible damage that drastic refinements and reverse licensing can do to the licensor's market position, and makes predictions on the structure of licensing contracts. We show under what conditions a licensing contract will include a further contractual provision such as a grantback clause. Finally, the welfare implications of grantback inclusion are assessed.

A performance model of speculative prefetching in distributed information systems

Previous studies in speculative prefetching focus on building and evaluating access models for the purpose of access prediction. This paper investigates a complementary area which has been largely ignored, that of performance modelling. We use improvement in access time as the performance metric, for which we derive a formula in terms of resource parameters (time available and time required for prefetching) and speculative parameters (probabilities for next access). The performance maximization problem is expressed as a stretch knapsack problem. We develop an algorithm to maximize the improvement in access time by solving the stretch knapsack problem, using theoretically proven apparatus to reduce the search space. Integration between speculative prefetching and caching is also investigated, albeit under the assumption of equal item sizes.

On the recognition of abstract Markov policies

Abstraction plays an essential role in the way the agents plan their behaviours, especially to reduce the computational complexity of planning in large domains. However, the effects of abstraction in the inverse process – plan recognition – are unclear. In this paper, we present a method for recognising the agent’s behaviour in noisy and uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We use the concept of abstract Markov policies in abstract probabilistic planning as the model of the agent’s behaviours and employ probabilistic inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to infer the correct policy from a sequence of observations. When the states are fully observable, we show that for a broad and often-used class of abstract policies, the complexity of policy recognition scales well with the number of abstraction levels in the policy hierarchy. For the partially observable case, we derive an efficient hybrid inference scheme on the corresponding DBN to overcome the exponential complexity.

Parameter estimation of the BOLD fMRI model within a general particle filter framework

This work demonstrates a novel Bayesian learning approach for model based analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance (fMRI) data. We use a physiologically inspired hemodynamic model and investigate a method to simultaneously infer the neural activity together with hidden state and the physiological parameter of the model. This joint estimation problem is still an open topic. In our work we use a Particle Filter accompanied with a kernel smoothing approach to address this problem within a general filtering framework. Simulation results show that the proposed method is a consistent approach and has a good potential to be enhanced for further fMRI data analysis.

Inferring activity budgets in wild animals to estimate the consequences of disturbances

Activity budgets can provide a direct link to an animal's bioenergetic budget and is thus a valuable unit of measure when assessing human-induced nonlethal effects on wildlife conservation status. However, activity budget inference can be challenging for species that are difficult to observe and require multiple observational variables. Here, we assessed whether whalewatching boat interactions could affect the activity budgets of minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata). We used a stepwise modeling approach to quantitatively record, identify, and assign activity states to continuous behavioral time series data, to estimate activity budgets. First, we used multiple behavioral variables, recorded from continuous visual observations of individual animals, to quantitatively identify and define behavioral types. Activity states were then assigned to each sampling unit, using a combination of hidden and observed states. Three activity states were identified: nonfeeding, foraging, and surface feeding (SF). From the resulting time series of activity states, transition probability matrices were estimated using first-order Markov chains. We then simulated time series of activity states, using Monte Carlo methods based on the transition probability matrices, to obtain activity budgets, accounting for heterogeneity in state duration. Whalewatching interactions reduced the time whales spend foraging and SF, potentially resulting in an overall decrease in energy intake of 42%. This modeling approach thus provides a means to link short-term behavioral changes resulting from human disturbance to potential long-term bioenergetic consequences in animals. It also provides an analytical framework applicable to other species when direct observations of activity states are not possible.

Non-homogeneous volatility correlations in the bivariate multifractal model

In this paper, we consider an extension of the recently proposed bivariate Markov-switching multifractal model of Calvet, Fisher, and Thompson [2006. "Volatility Comovement: A Multifrequency Approach." Journal of Econometrics {131}: 179-215]. In particular, we allow correlations between volatility components to be non-homogeneous with two different parameters governing the volatility correlations at high and low frequencies. Specification tests confirm the added explanatory value of this specification. In order to explore its practical performance, we apply the model for computing value-at-risk statistics for different classes of financial assets and compare the results with the baseline, homogeneous bivariate multifractal model and the bivariate DCC-GARCH of Engle [2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20 (3): 339-350]. As it turns out, the multifractal model with heterogeneous volatility correlations provides more reliable results than both the homogeneous benchmark and the DCC-GARCH model. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Bayesian nonparametric extraction of hidden contexts from pervasive honest signals

Hidden patterns and contexts play an important part in intelligent pervasive systems. Most of the existing works have focused on simple forms of contexts derived directly from raw signals. High-level constructs and patterns have been largely neglected or remained under-explored in pervasive computing, mainly due to the growing complexity over time and the lack of efficient principal methods to extract them. Traditional parametric modeling approaches from machine learning find it difficult to discover new, unseen patterns and contexts arising from continuous growth of data streams due to its practice of training-then-prediction paradigm. In this work, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric models as a systematic and rigorous paradigm to continuously learn hidden patterns and contexts from raw social signals to provide basic building blocks for context-aware applications. Bayesian nonparametric models allow the model complexity to grow with data, fitting naturally to several problems encountered in pervasive computing. Under this framework, we use nonparametric prior distributions to model the data generative process, which helps towards learning the number of latent patterns automatically, adapting to changes in data and discovering never-seen-before patterns, contexts and activities. The proposed methods are agnostic to data types, however our work shall demonstrate to two types of signals: accelerometer activity data and Bluetooth proximal data. © 2014 IEEE.

Tree-based iterated local search for Markov random fields with applications in image analysis

The maximum a posteriori assignment for general structure Markov random fields is computationally intractable. In this paper, we exploit tree-based methods to efficiently address this problem. Our novel method, named Tree-based Iterated Local Search (T-ILS), takes advantage of the tractability of tree-structures embedded within MRFs to derive strong local search in an ILS framework. The method efficiently explores exponentially large neighborhoods using a limited memory without any requirement on the cost functions. We evaluate the T-ILS on a simulated Ising model and two real-world vision problems: stereo matching and image denoising. Experimental results demonstrate that our methods are competitive against state-of-the-art rivals with significant computational gain.

Privacy-preserving topic model for tagging recommender systems

Tagging recommender systems provide users the freedom to explore tags and obtain recommendations. The releasing and sharing of these tagging datasets will accelerate both commercial and research work on recommender systems. However, releasing the original tagging datasets is usually confronted with serious privacy concerns, because adversaries may re-identify a user and her/his sensitive information from tagging datasets with only a little background information. Recently, several privacy techniques have been proposed to address the problem, but most of these lack a strict privacy notion, and rarely prevent individuals being re-identified from the dataset. This paper proposes a privacy- preserving tag release algorithm, PriTop. This algorithm is designed to satisfy differential privacy, a strict privacy notion with the goal of protecting users in a tagging dataset. The proposed PriTop algorithm includes three privacy-preserving operations: Private topic model generation structures the uncontrolled tags; private weight perturbation adds Laplace noise into the weights to hide the numbers of tags; while private tag selection finally finds the most suitable replacement tags for the original tags, so the exact tags can be hidden. We present extensive experimental results on four real-world datasets, Delicious, MovieLens, Last.fm and BibSonomy. While the recommendation algorithm is successful in all the cases, our results further suggest the proposed PriTop algorithm can successfully retain the utility of the datasets while preserving privacy.

A statistical model for combustion resonance from a DI diesel engine with applications

Introduced in this paper is a Bayesian model for isolating the resonant frequency from combustion chamber resonance. The model shown in this paper focused on characterising the initial rise in the resonant frequency to investigate the rise of in-cylinder bulk temperature associated with combustion. By resolving the model parameters, it is possible to determine: the start of pre-mixed combustion, the start of diffusion combustion, the initial resonant frequency, the resonant frequency as a function of crank angle, the in-cylinder bulk temperature as a function of crank angle and the trapped mass as a function of crank angle. The Bayesian method allows for individual cycles to be examined without cycle-averaging|allowing inter-cycle variability studies. Results are shown for a turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine run at 2000 rpm and full load.

Stability analysis of two-dimensional Markovian jump state-delayed systems in the Roesser model with uncertain transition probabilities

This paper is concerned with the problem of stochastic stability analysis of discrete-time two-dimensional (2-D) Markovian jump systems (MJSs) described by the Roesser model with interval time-varying delays. The transition probabilities of the jumping process/Markov chain are assumed to be uncertain, that is, they are not exactly known but can be estimated. A Lyapunov-like scheme is first extended to 2-D MJSs with delays. Based on some novel 2-D summation inequalities proposed in this paper, delay-dependent stochastic stability conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which can be computationally solved by various convex optimization algorithms. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.