Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation

In this paper we measure the effect of the inflation tax on economic activity and welfare within a controlled setting.To do so,we develop a model of price posting and monetary exchange with inflation and finite populations.The model,which provides a game–theoreticfoundation to Rocheteau and Wright(2005)'s competitive search monetary equilibrium, is used to derive theoretical propositions regarding the effects of inflation in thisenvironment, which we test with a laboratory experiment that closely implements the theoretical framework.We find that the inflation tax is harmful – with cash holdings, production and welfare all falling as inflation rises – and that its effect is relatively larger at low inflation rates than at higher rates.For instance,for inflation rates between 0%and5%, welfare in the two markets we consider (2[seller] 2[buyer] and 3 2) falls by roughly 1 percent for each percentage–point rise in inflation, compared with 0.4 percent over the range from 5% to 30%.Our findings lead us to conclude that the impact of the inflation tax should not be underestimated, even under low inflation.

The misanthropes, larrikins and mallrats of market square: an enduring public space dilemma in central Geelong

Market Square was a public reserve located in the centre of the Victorian regional city of Geelong. It was established by Governor Sir George Gipps during the initial surveying of the area in 1838. The square later became a produce market, before being progressively built upon for public and commercial purposes. Today, the modern Market Square Shopping Centre occupies a substantial portion of the original site. Opened in 1985 by the City of Geelong, the complex initially drew high rental incomes for the Council. However, by the early 1990s revenue began to decline after the collapse of the Pyramid Building Society and competition from the new Bay City Plaza shopping centre (now Westfield) that was built directly opposite. In 1993 the city council decided to sell the complex. Today it remains privately owned and while it adjoins the Little Malop Street Mall which was also part of the original public square, its connection with the surrounding urban environment is poor. The introverted architectural nature of Geelong’s two large retail shopping complexes has significantly altered the city’s spatial dynamic. The traditional intimate urban structure and streetscape has been fragmented. This has led to a deterioration of the city’s social cohesion, sense of place and economic prosperity. This paper chronicles the myriad errors of judgement by the institution of local government that have contributed to this situation. Heeding past mistakes, it explores ways in which the Council might work with private landowners to improve the permeability of the city’s public urban spaces and internalised retail centres for improved use, integration, functionality and resilience. Achieving a shared culture of concern for the city’s urban fabric presents some significant challenges. How might ‘big box’ shopping centres be reconsidered to make a positive contribution to the city’s urban spatial network while remaining commercially viable? The built environment has an important role to play in addressing the problem by presenting opportunities for these new urban institutions to also benefit from stronger connections between the public and private realm.

Perks and the informativeness of stock prices in the Chinese market

While the literature shows that perks can affect firm values positively or negatively, we argue that firms with higher perks are more likely to be associated with a lower quality of financial reporting, which, in turn, can affect the informativeness of stock prices. Based on hand-collected data on perks from Chinese listed firms, we find that firms with lower perks are associated with higher informativeness of stock prices (or lower R-square). Moreover, the positive association between perks and R-square is shown to be weaker for firms with higher financial reporting quality through audit and earnings quality measures.

The role of leverage in cross-border mergers and acquisitions

We examine the relationship between leverage and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Using a sample of 85,560 cross-border mergers and acquisitions in 57 countries over the period 1990 to 2010, we find that firms with higher leverage are less likely to acquire foreign targets, whereas firms with lower leverage tend to be targets acquired by foreign firms. These effects are more pronounced in Asian countries than North America. Acquisition premium, the likelihood of all-cash offer and the percentage of cash in the acquisition offer decrease with leverage in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Foreign targets gain positive abnormal returns in the both short run and long run, while acquirers earn positive abnormal returns in the short-run, but negative returns in the long run. We also find that firms adjust their capital structure after the acquisition by issuing more equity if they were overleveraged, or issuing more debt if they were underleveraged before the acquisition. Our results provide international evidence on how leverage affects managerial decision to acquire foreign targets, payment method and acquisition premium in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. This study shows that the interdependent relationship between investment decision and financing decision exists worldwide.

A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.