Classification tree analysis of postal questionnaire data to identify risk of excessive gestational weight gain

OBJECTIVE: overweight/obese weight status during pregnancy increases risk of a range of adverse health outcomes for mother and child. Whereas identification of those who are overweight/obese pre-pregnancy and in early pregnancy is straightforward, prediction of who will experience excessive gestational weight gain (EGWG), and thus be at greater risk of becoming overweight or obese during pregnancy is more challenging. The present study sought to better identify those at risk of EGWG by exploring pre-pregnancy BMI as well as a range of psychosocial risk factors identified as risk factors in prior research. METHODS: 225 pregnant women completed self-reported via postal survey measures of height, weight, and psychosocial variables at 16-18 weeks gestation, and reported their weight again at 32-34 weeks to calculate GWG. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) was used to find subgroups in the data with increased risk of EGWG based on their pre-pregnancy BMI and psychosocial risk factor scores at Time 1. FINDINGS: CART confirmed that self-reported BMI status was a strong predictor of EGWG risk for women who were overweight/obese pre-pregnancy. Normal weight women with low motivation to maintain a healthy diet and who reported lower levels of partner support were also at considerable risk of EGWG. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: present findings offer support for inclusion of psychosocial measures (in addition to BMI) in early antenatal visits to detect risk of EGWG. However, these findings also underscore the need for further consideration of effect modifiers that place women at increased or decreased risk of EGWG. Proposed additional constructs are discussed to direct further theory-driven research.

Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians

Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species.

Impact of a pedometer-based workplace health program on cardiovascular and diabetes risk profile

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether participation in a four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health programme results in an improvement in risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Adults employed within Australia in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a workplace programme, the Global Corporate Challenge®, aimed at increasing physical activity were recruited. Data included demographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biomedical measurements. Measures were compared between baseline and four-months. RESULTS: 762 participants were recruited in April/May 2008 with 79% returning. Improvements between baseline and four-months amongst programme participants were observed for physical activity (an increase of 6.5% in the proportion meeting guidelines, OR(95%CI): 1.7(1.1, 2.5)), fruit intake (4%, OR: 1.7(1.0, 3.0)), vegetable intake (2%, OR: 1.3(1.0, 1.8)), sitting time (-0.6(-0.9, -0.3) hours/day), blood pressure (systolic: -1.8(-3.1, -.05) mmHg; diastolic: -1.8(-2.4, -1.3) mmHg) and waist circumference (-1.6(-2.4, -0.7) cm). In contrast, an increase was found for fasting total cholesterol (0.3(0.1, 0.4) mmol/L) and triglycerides (0.1(0.0, 0.1) mmol/L). CONCLUSION: Completion of this four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace programme was associated with improvements in behavioural and anthropometric risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Long-term evaluation is required to evaluate the potential of such programmes to prevent the onset of chronic disease.

How do the Australian guidelines for lipid-lowering drugs perform in practice? Cardiovascular disease risk in the AusDiab Study, 1999-2000

OBJECTIVE: To determine how well the current Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) eligibility criteria for subsidy of lipid-lowering drugs compare with current national guidelines for determining the population at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Analyses of the population-based, cross-sectional Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, conducted in 1999-2000. The 1991 Framingham risk prediction equation was used to compute 5-year risk of developing first-time CVD in 8286 participants aged 30-74 years with neither CVD nor diabetes. Based on the National Heart Foundation of Australia and Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand guidelines, people with either 5-year CVD risk > or = 15% or with 5-year CVD risk of 10%-< 15% and the metabolic syndrome were defined as having estimated high absolute CVD risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5-year CVD risk; estimated population with high CVD risk. RESULTS: Among participants without prevalent CVD or diabetes, 7.9% of men and 1.5% of women had a 5-year CVD risk > or = 15%. Of the estimated residential Australian population in 2000 aged 30-74 years without CVD or diabetes, 717 000 people were considered to be at high absolute CVD risk. Among the high-risk AusDiab participants without CVD or diabetes, only 16.9% of men and 15.4% of women were being treated with lipid-lowering drugs. Of the 9.6% of participants free of CVD and diabetes who were untreated but eligible for subsidy under PBS criteria, only 27.4% had an estimated high absolute CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Strategies for CVD prevention using lipid-lowering medications can be improved by adoption of the absolute-risk approach.

A longitudinal study of risk and protective factors associated with successful transition to secondary school in youth with ADHD: prospective cohort study protocol

BACKGROUND: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has a significant impact on child and adolescent development, especially in relation to school functioning and academic outcomes. Despite the transition to high school being a potentially critical period for children with ADHD, most research in this period has focused on academic outcomes. This study aims to extend previous research by describing academic, school engagement, behaviour and social-emotional outcomes for young people with ADHD in the first and third years of high school and to identify risk and protective factors predictive of differing outcomes across these four domains. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Moving Up study is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study of children with ADHD as they transition and adjust to high school (age 12-15 years). Data are collected through direct assessment and child, parent and teacher surveys. The primary outcome is academic achievement, obtained by linking to standardised test results. Secondary outcomes include measures of behaviour, ADHD symptoms, school engagement (attitudes and attendance), and social and emotional functioning, including depressive symptoms. The mean performance of the study cohort on each outcome measure will be compared to the population mean for same aged children, using t-tests. Risk and protective factors to be examined using multiple regression include a child, family and school factors know to impact academic and school functioning. DISCUSSION: The Moving up study is the first Australian study prospectively designed to measure a broad range of student outcomes for children with ADHD during the high school transition period. Examining both current (cross sectional) and earlier childhood (longitudinal) factors gives us the potential to learn more about risk and protective factors associated with school functioning in young people with ADHD. The richness and depth of this information could lead to more targeted and effective interventions that may alter academic and wellbeing trajectories for young people at risk of poor outcomes. The study is approved by The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (33206). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

Fat mass- and obesity-associated genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometric measures in European adults: the Food4Me study

The interplay between the fat mass- and obesity-associated (FTO) gene variants and diet has been implicated in the development of obesity. The aim of the present analysis was to investigate associations between FTO genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometrics among European adults. Participants in the Food4Me randomised controlled trial were genotyped for FTO genotype (rs9939609) and their dietary intakes, and diet quality scores (Healthy Eating Index and PREDIMED-based Mediterranean diet score) were estimated from FFQ. Relationships between FTO genotype, diet and anthropometrics (weight, waist circumference (WC) and BMI) were evaluated at baseline. European adults with the FTO risk genotype had greater WC (AA v. TT: +1·4 cm; P=0·003) and BMI (+0·9 kg/m2; P=0·001) than individuals with no risk alleles. Subjects with the lowest fried food consumption and two copies of the FTO risk variant had on average 1·4 kg/m2 greater BMI (Ptrend=0·028) and 3·1 cm greater WC (Ptrend=0·045) compared with individuals with no copies of the risk allele and with the lowest fried food consumption. However, there was no evidence of interactions between FTO genotype and dietary intakes on BMI and WC, and thus further research is required to confirm or refute these findings.

A lower limb assessment tool for athletes at risk of developing patellar tendinopathy

PURPOSE: Patellar tendon abnormality (PTA) on diagnostic imaging is part of the diagnostic criteria for patellar tendinopathy. PTA and altered landing strategies are primary risk factors that increase the likelihood of asymptomatic athletes developing patellar tendinopathy. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the risk factors that are predictors of the presence and severity of a PTA in junior pre-elite athletes. METHODS: Ten junior pre-elite male basketball athletes with a PTA were matched with 10 athletes with normal patellar tendons. Participants had patellar tendon morphology, Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment (VISA) score, body composition, lower limb flexibility, and maximum vertical jump height measured before performing five successful stop-jump tasks. During each stop-jump task, both two-dimensional and three-dimensional kinematics and ground reaction forces were recorded. Multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors for estimating PTA presence and severity, and discriminate analysis was used to classify PTA presence. RESULTS: Sixty-eight percent of variance for presence of a PTA was accounted for by hip joint range of motion (ROM) and knee joint angle at initial foot-ground contact (IC) during stop-jump task and quadriceps flexibility, whereas hip joint ROM during stop-jump task and VISA score accounted for 62% of variance for PTA severity. Prediction of the presence of a PTA was achieved with 95% accuracy and 95% cross-validation. CONCLUSIONS: An easily implemented, reliable, and valid movement screening tool composed of three criteria enables coaches and/or clinicians to predict the presence and severity of a PTA in asymptomatic athletes. This enables identification of asymptomatic athletes at higher risk of developing patellar tendinopathy, which allows the development of effective preventative measures to aid in the reduction of patellar tendinopathy injury prevalence.

A cluster randomised controlled trial of vascular risk factor management in general practice

Objective: To evaluate the impact of a lifestyle intervention in Australian general practice to reduce the risk of vascular disease.

Design, setting and participants: Stratified cluster randomised controlled trial among 30 general practices in New South Wales from July 2008 to January 2010. Patients aged 40–64 years were invited to participate. The subgroup who were 40–55 years of age were included only if they had either hypertension or dyslipidaemia.

Intervention: A general practice-based health-check with brief lifestyle counselling and referral of high-risk patients to a program consisting of one to two individual visits with an exercise physiologist or dietitian, and six group sessions.

Main outcome measures: Outcomes at baseline, 6 and 12 months included the behavioural and physiological risk factors for vascular disease — self-reported diet and physical activity, and measured weight, body mass index, waist circumference, blood lipid and blood sugar levels, and blood pressure.

Results: Of the 3128 patients who were invited, 958 patients (30.6%) responded and 814 were eligible to participate. Of these, 699 commenced the study, and 655 remained in the study at 12 months. Physical activity levels increased to a greater extent in the intervention group than the control group at 6 and 12 months (P = 0.005). There were no other changes in behavioural or physiological outcomes or in estimated absolute risk of cardiovascular disease at 12 months. Of the 384 enrolled in the intervention group, 117 patients (30.5%) attended the minimum number of group program sessions and lost more weight (mean weight loss, 1.06 kg) than those who did not attend the minimum number of sessions (mean weight gain, 0.73 kg).

Conclusion: While patients who received counselling by their general practitioner increased self-reported physical activity, only those who attended the group sessions sustained an improvement in weight. However, more research is needed to determine whether group programs offer significant benefits over individual counselling in general practice.

Metals in the environment as risk factors for infectious diseases: gaps and opportunities

Many parts of the world in which common infectious diseases are endemic also have the highest prevalence of trace metal deficiencies or rising rates of trace metal pollution. Infectious diseases can increase human susceptibility to adverse effects of metal exposure (at suboptimal or toxic levels), and metal excess or deficiency can increase the incidence or severity of infectious diseases. The co-clustering of major infectious diseases with trace metal deficiency or toxicity has created a complex web of interactions with serious but poorly understood health repercussions, yet has been largely overlooked in animal and human studies. This book focuses on the distribution, trafficking, fate, and effects of trace metals in biological systems. Its goal is to enhance our understanding of the relationships between homeostatic mechanisms of trace metals and the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. Drawing on expertise from a range of fields, the book offers a comprehensive review of current knowledge on vertebrate metal-withholding mechanisms and the strategies employed by different microbes to avoid starvation (or poisoning). Chapters summarize current, state-of-the-art techniques for investigating pathogen-metal interactions and highlight open question to guide future research. The book makes clear that improving knowledge in this area will be instrumental to the development of novel therapeutic measures against infectious diseases. ContributorsM. Leigh Ackland, Vahid Fa Andisi, Angele L. Arrieta, Michael A. Bachman, J. Sabine Becker, Robert E. Black, Julia Bornhorst, Sascha Brunke, Joseph A. Caruso, Jennifer S. Cavet, Anson C. K. Chan, Christopher H. Contag, Heran Darwin, George V. Dedoussis, Rodney R. Dietert, Victor J. DiRita, Carol A. Fierke, Tamara Garcia-Barrera, David P. Giedroc, Peter-Leon Hagedoorn, James A. Imlay, Marek J. Kobylarz, Joseph Lemire, Wenwen Liu, Slade A. Loutet, Wolfgang Maret, Andreas Matusch, Trevor F. Moraes, Michael E. P. Murphy, Maribel Navarro, Jerome O. Nriagu, Ana-Maria Oros-Peusquens, Elisabeth G. Pacyna, Jozef M. Pacyna, Robert D. Perry, John M. Pettifor, Stephanie Pfaffen, Dieter Rehder, Lothar Rink, Anthony B. Schryvers, Ellen K. Silbergeld, Eric P. Skaar, Miguel C. P. Soares, Kyrre Sundseth, Dennis J. Thiele, Richard B. Thompson, Meghan M. Verstraete, Gonzalo Visbal, Fudi Wang, Mian Wang, Thomas J. Webster, Jeffrey N. Weiser, Günter Weiss, Inga Wessels, Bin Ye, Judith T. Zelikoff, Lihong Zhang

Legal risk impact in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): the case of the Chinese water sector

China is currently experiencing a rising demand for water, combined with limited funding availability for water project procurement. Consequently, local Chinese governments have sought procurement solutions by experimenting with public private partnerships (PPPs). However, the legal risk in PPPs, particularly in the water sector, remains high. Legal risk refers to risk arising from the legal and regulatory systems surrounding PPPs. Past research have identified legal risk in PPP projects in China as critical, however the stages at which they are significant have not been studied. This paper examines the legal risk associated with PPPs in the water sector in China and measures the degree of risk across three key stages; 1) Procurement, 2) Construction and 3) Operation. The interrelationship between legal risk at these three stages is also investigated. The significance of the risk was measured by determining the probability and severity of the risk. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between legal risks across the three stages. Our findings are that legal risk is present at all three stages, at close to moderate levels, with risk significance greatest at the operational stage. Moreover, while no correlation was identified for legal risk at the operational stage with those of earlier stages, it was found that legal issues arising during the procurement stage significantly exacerbated any further legal issues that emerged during the construction stage of water projects. The findings from this study will be significant in providing practitioners with the information to manage this risk at different stages of PPP projects.

Maternal depression, anxiety, body dissatisfaction and self-esteem: do they increase the risk of pre-schooler obesity?

An examination of the relationship between maternal depression, anxiety, body dissatisfaction and self-esteem, child feeding practices, and obesity risk in pre-schoolers. A systematic review revealed moderate associations between maternal depression and pre-schooler obesity risk, and a possible link between both maternal anxiety and body dissatisfaction and pre-schooler obesity risk. The empirical studies however, did not support a link between any of the measures of psychosocial health and pre-schooler obesity risk.

Establishing reference values for central blood pressure and its amplification in a general healthy population and according to cardiovascular risk factors

AIMS: Estimated central systolic blood pressure (cSBP) and amplification (Brachial SBP-cSBP) are non-invasive measures potentially prognostic of cardiovascular (CV) disease. No worldwide, multiple-device reference values are available. We aimed to establish reference values for a worldwide general population standardizing between the different available methods of measurement. How these values were significantly altered by cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) was then investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Existing data from population surveys and clinical trials were combined, whether published or not. Reference values of cSBP and amplification were calculated as percentiles for 'Normal' (no CVRFs) and 'Reference' (any CVRFs) populations. We included 45,436 subjects out of 82,930 that were gathered from 77 studies of 53 centres. Included subjects were apparently healthy, not treated for hypertension or dyslipidaemia, and free from overt CV disease and diabetes. Values of cSBP and amplification were stratified by brachial blood pressure categories and age decade in turn, both being stratified by sex. Amplification decreased with age and more so in males than in females. Sex was the most powerful factor associated with amplification with 6.6 mmHg (5.8-7.4) higher amplification in males than in females. Amplification was marginally but significantly influenced by CVRFs, with smoking and dyslipidaemia decreasing amplification, but increased with increasing levels of blood glucose. CONCLUSION: Typical values of cSBP and amplification in a healthy population and a population free of traditional CVRFs are now available according to age, sex, and brachial BP, providing values included from different devices with a wide geographical representation. Amplification is significantly influenced by CVRFs, but differently in men and women.