The high prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency across Australian populations is only partly explained by season and latitude

Background Inadequate sun exposure and dietary vitamin D intake can result in vitamin D insufficiency. However, limited data are available on actual vitamin D status and predictors in healthy individuals in different regions and by season.

Methods We compared vitamin D status [25-hydroxyvitamin D; 25(OH)D] in people < 60 years of age using data from cross-sectional studies of three regions across Australia: southeast Queensland (27°S; 167 females and 211 males), Geelong region (38°S; 561 females), and Tasmania (43°S; 432 females and 298 males).

Results The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (≤ 50 nmol/L) in women in winter/spring was 40.5% in southeast Queensland, 37.4% in the Geelong region, and 67.3% in Tasmania. Season, simulated maximum daily duration of vitamin D synthesis, and vitamin D effective daily dose each explained around 14% of the variation in 25(OH)D. Although latitude explained only 3.9% of the variation, a decrease in average 25(OH)D of 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.7–1.3) nmol/L for every degree increase in latitude may be clinically relevant. In some months, we found a high insufficiency or even deficiency when sun exposure protection would be recommended on the basis of the simulated ultraviolet index.

Conclusion Vitamin D insufficiency is common over a wide latitude range in Australia. Season appears to be more important than latitude, but both accounted for less than one-fifth of the variation in serum 25(OH)D levels, highlighting the importance of behavioral factors. Current sun exposure guidelines do not seem to fully prevent vitamin D insufficiency, and consideration should be given to their modification or to pursuing other means to achieve vitamin D adequacy.

Web tools for the prioritization of candidate disease genes

Despite increasing sequencing capacity, genetic disease investigation still frequently results in the identification of loci containing multiple candidate disease genes that need to be tested for involvement in the disease. This process can be expedited by prioritizing the candidates prior to testing. Over the last decade, a large number of computational methods and tools have been developed to assist the clinical geneticist in prioritizing candidate disease genes. In this chapter, we give an overview of computational tools that can be used for this purpose, all of which are freely available over the web.

The role of reducing intakes of saturated fat in the prevention of cardiovascular disease : where does the evidence stand in 2010?

Current dietary recommendations advise reducing the intake of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but recent findings question the role of SFAs. This expert panel reviewed the evidence and reached the following conclusions: the evidence from epidemiologic, clinical, and mechanistic studies is consistent in finding that the risk of CHD is reduced when SFAs are replaced with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). In populations who consume a Western diet, the replacement of 1% of energy from SFAs with PUFAs lowers LDL cholesterol and is likely to produce a reduction in CHD incidence of >2–3%. No clear benefit of substituting carbohydrates for SFAs has been shown, although there might be a benefit if the carbohydrate is unrefined and has a low glycemic index. Insufficient evidence exists to judge the effect on CHD risk of replacing SFAs with MUFAs. No clear association between SFA intake relative to refined carbohydrates and the risk of insulin resistance and diabetes has been shown. The effect of diet on a single biomarker is insufficient evidence to assess CHD risk. The combination of multiple biomarkers and the use of clinical endpoints could help substantiate the effects on CHD. Furthermore, the effect of particular foods on CHD cannot be predicted solely by their content of total SFAs because individual SFAs may have different cardiovascular effects and major SFA food sources contain other constituents that could influence CHD risk. Research is needed to clarify the role of SFAs compared with specific forms of carbohydrates in CHD risk and to compare specific foods with appropriate alternatives.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its determinants in Australian adults aged 25 years and older : a national, population-based study

Objective  Vitamin D deficiency is recognized as a global public health problem, but the population-based prevalence of deficiency and its determinants in Australian adults is not known. This study evaluated the vitamin D status of Australian adults aged ≥25 years and risk factors associated with vitamin D deficiency in this population.

Design and Patients  We studied a national sample of 11 247 Australian adults enrolled in the 1999/2000 Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study drawn from 42 randomly selected districts throughout Australia.

Measurements  Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were measured by immunoassay. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as a concentration <50 nmol/l. Information on demographic and lifestyle factors was derived from interview-administered questionnaires.

Results  The mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 63 nmol/l (95% CI: 59–67 nmol/l). Only 4% of the population had a level <25 nmol/l, but the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (<50 nmol/l) was 31% (22% men; 39% women); 73% had levels <75 nmol/l. The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency increased significantly with age, was greater in women, in those of non-Europid origin, in the obese and those who were physically inactive and with a higher level of education. Deficiency was also more common during winter and in people residing in southern Australia (latitude >35°S); 42% of women and 27% of men were deficient during summer–autumn, which increased to 58% and 35%, respectively, during winter–spring.

Conclusion  Vitamin D deficiency is common in Australia affecting nearly one-third of adults aged ≥25 years. This indicates that strategies are needed at the population level to improve vitamin D status of Australians.

Projected socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of obesity among Australian adults

Objective: To project prevalence of normal weight, overweight and obesity by educational attainment, assuming a continuation of the observed individual weight change in the 5-year follow-up of the national population survey, the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab; 2000–2005).

Methods: Age-specific transition probabilities between BMI categories, estimated using logistic regression, were entered into education-level-specific, incidence-based, multi-state life tables. Assuming a continuation of the weight change observed in AusDiab, these life tables estimate the prevalence of normal weight, overweight and obesity for Australian adults with low (secondary), medium (diploma) and high (degree) levels of education between 2005 and 2025.

Results: The prevalence of obesity among individuals with secondary level educational attainment is estimated to increase from 23% in 2000 to 44% in 2025. Among individuals with a degree qualification or higher, it will increase from 14% to 30%. If all current educational inequalities in weight change could be eliminated, the projected difference in the prevalence of obesity by 2025 between the highest and lowest educated categories would only be reduced by half (to a 6 percentage point difference from 14 percentage points).

Conclusion: We predict that almost half of Australian adults with low educational status will be obese by 2025. Current trends in obesity have the potential to drive an increase in the absolute difference in obesity prevalence between educational categories in future years.

Implications: Unless obesity prevention and management strategies focus specifically on narrowing social inequalities in obesity, inequalities in health are likely to widen.

Best practice for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease through an equity lens : a review

Background Despite declining rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in developed countries, lower socioeconomic groups continue to experience a greater burden of the disease. There are now many evidence-based treatments and prevention strategies for the management of CVD and it is essential that their impact on the more disadvantaged group is understood if socioeconomic inequalities in CVD are to be reduced.

Aims To determine whether key interventions for CVD prevention and treatment are effective among lower socioeconomic groups, to describe barriers to their effectiveness and the potential or actual impact of these interventions on the socioeconomic gradient in CVD.

Methods Interventions were selected from four stages of the CVD continuum. These included smoking reduction strategies, absolute risk assessment, cardiac rehabilitation, secondary prevention medications, and heart failure self-management programmes. Electronic searches were conducted using terms for each intervention combined with terms for socioeconomic status (SES).

Results Only limited evidence was found for the effectiveness of the selected interventions among lower SES groups and there was little exploration of socioeconomic-related barriers to their uptake. Some broad themes and key messages were identified. In the majority of findings examined, it was clear that the underlying material, social and environmental factors associated with disadvantage are a significant barrier to the effectiveness of interventions.

Conclusion Opportunities to reduce socioeconomic inequalities occur at all stages of the CVD continuum. Despite this, current treatment and prevention strategies may be contributing to the widening socioeconomic-CVD gradient. Further research into the impact of best-practice interventions for CVD upon lower SES groups is required.

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

Background
Despite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Findings
In a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.

Conclusions
There is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.

Comorbidity of cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease in Australia

This is the first report of a projected series regarding the comorbidity of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Australia. Comorbidity refers to any two or more of these diseases that occur in one person at the same time. The questions to be answered in this report include: 1. How many Australians have comorbidity of CVD, diabetes and CKD? 2. What is the proportion of hospitalisations with these comorbidities? 3. How much do these comorbidities contribute to deaths? 4. What is the magnitude of comorbidity in the context of each individual disease? 5. Are there differences in the distribution of these comorbidities among age groups and sexes?

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting.
Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers.
Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.