204 resultados para Organizational forecasting


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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how leadership has the capacity to both positively influence learning processes and negatively inhibit organizational learning.

Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper that brings together an analysis of leadership and organizational learning literature. The argument is centered on transformational leadership and the responsibility for creating an organizational learning culture.

Findings – There is a conventional belief that leaders have solitary control and influence when it comes to setting up organizational learning processes. However, a top-down approach to facilitate and implement learning in organizations is not always an effective method because learning should be a collaborative practice. Thus, to rely fully on leaders to initiate and sustain the learning processes can be counter-productive.

Practical implications – Good and effective leadership is the key to organizational learning. Learning is the only sustainable method of achieving competitive advantage for contemporary organizations because of rapidly changing environmental forces. Corporations with aspirations for long-term survival must facilitate, through their leadership, “the impulse to learn” amongst their members.

Originality/value – Knowledge is lacking in the area where leadership is linked to learning. Such knowledge is important because leaders play a central role in the learning framework and leaders also offer the required guidance for organizations to integrate and sustain learning processes through policy and practice.

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This paper questions the influence of a pre-existing information technology (IT) infrastructure on the formulation of an organizational knowledge strategy. We draw on a classification of four different strategic views of IT infrastructure and explore how the historic investment in IT infrastructure enables and constrains the formulation of knowledge strategy in four case organizations. The four case organizations are representative of different scenarios of historic investments in IT infrastructure and knowledge strategy formulation. Our findings indicate that an IT infrastructure that is minimal or fragmented constrains the formulation of an explicit knowledge strategy. We further find that an extensive existing IT infrastructure enables the pursuit of an explicit knowledge strategy, but that even an elaborate IT infrastructure can introduce some constraints on IT facilitated knowledge processes in the organization.

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This paper asks why organisations invest in non-integrated CRM point solutions when many of the benefits of enterprise systems are claimed to be due to integration of processes and information. This paper identifies six factors that explain why organisations invest in CRM point solutions: reduced risk; lower cost; quick benefits realization; low integration ability, low interdependence of business units, and high business-unit differentiation. The evidence suggests that when interdependence between parts of an organization is low, possibly due to one unit producing a clearly differentiated product, the attractions of lower risk, lower cost, and/or faster access to the benefits are likely to induce organizations to adopt CRM point solutions. The contribution of this study is that it recognizes that, and explains why, it is not always optimal for organizations to adopt integrated CRM solutions.

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Many organizations have embraced intranets with the intent to harness the technology to support knowledge management initiatives. Despite the promise that intranet technology holds in this regard, many of the early research studies indicate rather disappointing results. In this paper we propose a model that organizations can use to conceptualize and reflect on their intranet applications with a view towards more fruitful results, specifically in terms of knowledge creation. We do so by drawing upon Nonaka’s well-known framework of knowledge creation and combining that with a taxonomy of five intranet use modes. For each of Nonaka’s four knowledge creating activities we associate and describe the corresponding primary intranet use mode that we argue can foster the knowledge creation process. We illustrate the arguments with findings from our own empirical intranet field studies and other documented intranet-related knowledge management research. We conclude with some implications of the model and we suggest avenues for further research.

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Communities of Practice (CoPs) are increasingly being seen as innovative and creative value adding entities in organisations. Their contributions in the sharing of perspectives and context, support of learning processes and creating a social and communal identity, yield invaluable knowledge exchanges. With the advent of internetworking, the boundaries of organisational settings are broadened. This is particularly significant to CoPs as they can continue their ways of working, work practices, social engagement and connectivity in these settings, harnessing Information Technology (IT). This paper reports on early findings from an ongoing investigation into ways in which IT can support practices and knowledge exchange processes of CoPs in organisational settings.

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Effective knowledge sharing underpins the day-to-day work activities in knowledge-intensive organizational environments. This paper integrates key concepts from the literature towards a model to explain effective knowledge sharing in such environments. It is proposed that the effectiveness of knowledge sharing is determined by the maturity of informal and formal social networks and a shared information and knowledge-based artefact network (AN) in a particular work context. It is further proposed that facilitating mechanisms within the social and ANs, and mechanisms that link these networks, affect the overall efficiency of knowledge sharing in complex environments. Three case studies are used to illustrate the model, highlighting typical knowledge-sharing problems that result when certain model elements are absent or insufficient in a particular environment. The model is discussed in terms of diagnosing knowledge-sharing problems, organizational knowledge strategy, and the role of information and communication technology in knowledge sharing.

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This paper examines the adoption and development of intranets in large business organizations. The authors demonstrate that intranet technology introduces a host of new managerial and technical challenges and requires new approaches to IS development. Evidence from two European corporations indicates that the traditional division of labor and definition of work roles in IS development breaks down. The distinction between developers and users becomes increasingly blurred and new organizational roles and structures associated with intranets are emerging. However, ready-made organizational models for implementing and managing intranets do not exist and the two organizations in this study have followed two different approaches. One organization favors a “planned change” approach, emphasizing management control and careful planning. The other organization prefers an “improvisational” approach, emphasizing experimentation, innovation and local initiative.

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Forecasting is an integral part of all business planning, and forecasting the outlook for housing is of interest to many firms in the housing construction sector. This research measures the performance of a number of industry forecasting bodies; this is done to provide users with an indicator of the value of housing forecasting undertaken in Australia. The accuracy of housing commencement forecasts of three Australian organisations – the Housing Industry Association (HIA), the Indicative Planning Council for the Housing Industry (IPC) and BIS-Shrapnel – is examined through the empirical analysis of their published forecasts supplemented by qualitative data in the form of opinions elicited from several industry “experts” employed in these organisations. Forecasting performance was determined by comparing the housing commencement forecast with the actual data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on an ex-post basis. Although the forecasts cover different time periods, the level of accuracy is similar, at around 11-13 per cent for four-quarter-ahead forecasts. In addition, national forecasts are more accurate than forecasts for individual states. This is the first research that has investigated the accuracy of both private and public sector forecasting of housing construction in Australia. This allows users of the information to better understand the performance of various forecasting organisations.

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In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.

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This study aimed to investigate the relationships between workability, organizational factors and psychosocial factors related to worker health and wellbeing. The cross sectional study involved participants from a general worker population (N = 305). Surveys were distributed through participants' organizations. and completed online. Findings of this study. suggest that many of the factors that predict workability are in fact modifiable organizational factors. Findings suggested whilst individual factors remained important predictors of work ability, organizational nurturance values, leadership effectiveness, occupational stress and job satisfaction were significant organizational factors.

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Modelling the level of demand for construction is vital in policy formulation and implementation as the construction industry plays an important role in a country’s economic development process. In construction economics, research efforts on construction demand modelling and forecasting are various, but few researchers have considered the impact of global economy events in construction demand modelling. An advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector error correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was adopted to predict demand in the Australian construction market. The results of prediction accuracy tests suggest that the general VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variables are both acceptable for forecasting construction economic indicators. However, the VEC model that considers external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the general VEC model. The model estimates indicate that the growth in population, changes in national income, fluctuations in interest rates and changes in householder expenditure all play significant roles when explaining variations in construction demand. The VEC model with disturbances developed can serve as an experimentation using an advanced econometrical method which can be used to analyse the effect of specific events or factors on the construction market growth.