Patient admission prediction using a pruned fuzzy min–max neural network with rule extraction

A useful patient admission prediction model that helps the emergency department of a hospital admit patients efficiently is of great importance. It not only improves the care quality provided by the emergency department but also reduces waiting time of patients. This paper proposes an automatic prediction method for patient admission based on a fuzzy min–max neural network (FMM) with rules extraction. The FMM neural network forms a set of hyperboxes by learning through data samples, and the learned knowledge is used for prediction. In addition to providing predictions, decision rules are extracted from the FMM hyperboxes to provide an explanation for each prediction. In order to simplify the structure of FMM and the decision rules, an optimization method that simultaneously maximizes prediction accuracy and minimizes the number of FMM hyperboxes is proposed. Specifically, a genetic algorithm is formulated to find the optimal configuration of the decision rules. The experimental results using a large data set consisting of 450740 real patient records reveal that the proposed method achieves comparable or even better prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art classifiers with the additional ability to extract a set of explanatory rules to justify its predictions.

Validation and development of a clinical prediction rule in clinically suspected community-acquired pneumonia

To develop a mathematical model to predict the probability of having community-acquired pneumonia and to evaluate an already developed prediction rule that has not been validated in a clinical scenario.

Anisotropic hardening model based on non-associated flow rule and combined nonlinear kinematic hardening for sheet materials

 A material model for more effective analysis of plastic deformation of sheet materials is presented in this paper. The model is capable of considering the following aspects of plastic deformation behavior of sheet materials: the anisotropy in yielding stresses in different directions by using a quadratic yield function (based on Hill’s 1948 model and stress ratios), the anisotropy in work hardening by introducing non-constant flow stress hardening in different directions, the anisotropy in plastic strains in different directions by using a quadratic plastic potential function and non-associated flow rule (based on Hill’s 1948 model and plastic strain ratios, r-values), and finally some of the cyclic hardening phenomena such as Bauschinger’s effect and transient behavior for reverse loading by using a coupled nonlinear kinematic hardening (so-called Armstrong-Frederick-Chaboche model). Basic fundamentals of the plasticity of the model are presented in a general framework. Then, the model adjustment procedure is derived for the plasticity formulations. Also, a generic numerical stress integration procedure is developed based on backward-Euler method (so-called multistage return mapping algorithm). Different aspects of the model are verified for DP600 steel sheet. Results show that the new model is able to predict the sheet material behavior in both anisotropic hardening and cyclic hardening regimes more accurately. By featuring the above-mentioned facts in the presented constitutive model, it is expected that more accurate results can be obtained by implementing this model in computational simulations of sheet material forming processes. For instance, more precise results of springback prediction of the parts formed from highly anisotropic hardened materials or that of determining the forming limit diagrams is highly expected by using the developed material model.

Retrials of persons acquitted of indictable offences in England and Australia: exceptions to the rule against double jeopardy

Jury directions in relation to the issue of consent in trials of sexual offence cases are mandated in two jurisdictions in Australia (Victoria and the Northern Territory). The Australian Law Reform Commission, in conjunction with the New South Wales Law Reform Commission, has recommended that provisions similar to those in Victoria should be contained in relevant legislation in all States and Territories. However, a recent series of cases in Victoria has revealed significant problems in relation to the mandatory jury directions. These difficulties have generated increasingly elaborate and complex directions. The complexity of these directions not only presents considerable challenges for judges but also may overwhelm, rather than assist, members of the jury. The Court of Appeal of Victoria has called for "urgent and wholesale reform". In the light of these concerns, it is suggested that the Victorian mandatory directions do not provide a model for other jurisdictions. Rather, the Victorian experience can be seen as a cautionary tale of the problems and pitfalls of such directions. Recently, the Victorian government has passed the Jury Directions Act 2013. This Act sets out "guiding principles" that should determine the content, and use, of jury directions. These guiding principles should form the basis for any jury directions with respect to sexual offences.

A new fuzzy ratio and its application to the single input rule modules connected fuzzy inference system

The principle of ratios has been applied to many real world problems, e.g. the part-to-part and part-to-whole ratio formulations. As it is difficult for humans to provide an exact ratio in many real situations, we introduce a fuzzy ratio in this paper. We use some notions from fuzzy arithmetic to analyze fuzzy ratios captured from humans. An application of the formulated fuzzy ratio to a Single Input Rule Modules connected Fuzzy Inference System (SIRMs-FIS) is demonstrated. Instead of using a precise weight, fuzzy sets are employed to represent the relative importance of each rule module. The resulting fuzzy weights are explained as a fuzzy ratio on a weight domain. In addition, a new SIRMs-FIS model with fuzzy weights and part-to-whole fuzzy ratio is devised. A simulated example is presented to clarify the proposed SIRM-FIS model.

A new monotonicity index for fuzzy rule-based systems

A search in the literature reveals that mathematical conditions (usually sufficient conditions) for the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) models to satisfy the monotonicity property have been developed. A monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base is important to maintain the monotonicity property of an FIS. However, it may difficult to obtain a monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base in practice. We have previously introduced the idea of fuzzy rule relabeling to tackle this problem. In this paper, we further propose a monotonicity index for the FIS system, which serves as a metric to indicate the degree of a fuzzy rule base fulfilling the monotonicity property. The index is useful to provide an indication whether a fuzzy rule base should (or should not) be used in practice, even with fuzzy rule relabeling. To illustrate the idea, the zero-order Sugeno FIS model is exemplified. We add noise as errors into the fuzzy rule base to formulate a set of non-monotone fuzzy rules. As such, the metric also acts as a measure of noise in the fuzzy rule base. The results show that the proposed metric is useful to indicate the degree of a fuzzy rule base fulfilling the monotonicity property.

Building fuzzy inference systems with similarity reasoning : NSGAII-based fuzzy rule selection and evidential functions

In our previous investigations, two Similarity Reasoning (SR)-based frameworks for tackling real-world problems have been proposed. In both frameworks, SR is used to deduce unknown fuzzy rules based on similarity of the given and unknown fuzzy rules for building a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). In this paper, we further extend our previous findings by developing (1) a multi-objective evolutionary model for fuzzy rule selection; and (2) an evidential function to facilitate the use of both frameworks. The Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms-p (NSGA-p) is adopted for fuzzy rule selection, in accordance with the Pareto optimal criterion. Besides that, two new evidential functions are developed, whereby given fuzzy rules are considered as evidence. Simulated and benchmark examples are included to demonstrate the applicability of these suggestions. Positive results were obtained.

The exception to the rule : Retreating ice front makes Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii migrate slower in spring than in autumn

In the vast majority of migratory bird species studied so far, spring migration has been found to proceed faster than autumn migration. In spring, selection pressures for rapid migration are purportedly higher, and migratory conditions such as food supply, daylength, and/or wind support may be better than in autumn. In swans, however, spring migration appears to be slower than autumn migration. Based on a comparison of tundra swan Cygnus columbianus tracking data with long-term temperature data from wheather stations, it has previously been suggested that this was due to a capital breeding strategy (gathering resources for breeding during spring migration) and/or to ice cover constraining spring but not autumn migration. Here we directly test the hypothesis that Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii follow the ice front in spring, but not in autumn, by comparing three years of GPS tracking data from individual swans with concurrent ice cover data at five important migratory stop-over sites. In general, ice constrained the swans in the middle part of spring migration, but not in the first (no ice cover was present in the first part) nor in the last part. In autumn, the swans migrated far ahead of ice formation, possibly in order to prevent being trapped by an early onset of winter. We conclude that spring migration in swans is slower than autumn migration because spring migration speed is constrained by ice cover. This restriction to spring migration speed may be more common in northerly migrating birds that rely on freshwater resources. © 2013 The Authors.

Individualized arrhythmia detection with ECG signals from wearable devices

Low cost pervasive electrocardiogram (ECG) monitors is changing how sinus arrhythmia are diagnosed among patients with mild symptoms. With the large amount of data generated from long-term monitoring, come new data science and analytical challenges. Although traditional rule-based detection algorithms still work on relatively short clinical quality ECG, they are not optimal for pervasive signals collected from wearable devices - they don't adapt to individual difference and assume accurate identification of ECG fiducial points. To overcome these short-comings of the rule-based methods, this paper introduces an arrhythmia detection approach for low quality pervasive ECG signals. To achieve the robustness needed, two techniques were applied. First, a set of ECG features with minimal reliance on fiducial point identification were selected. Next, the features were normalized using robust statistics to factors out baseline individual differences and clinically irrelevant temporal drift that is common in pervasive ECG. The proposed method was evaluated using pervasive ECG signals we collected, in combination with clinician validated ECG signals from Physiobank. Empirical evaluation confirms accuracy improvements of the proposed approach over the traditional clinical rules.

An adjunctive antidepressant nutraceutical combination in treating major depression: study protocol and clinical considerations

Current treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD), a prevalent and disabling mental illness, is inadequate, with two-thirds of people treated with first-line antidepressants not achieving remission. MDD is for many a chronic condition, often requiring multiple treatment attempts, thus development of additional interventions is urgently required. An emerging approach to improve non-response to antidepressants is the use of adjunctive nutraceuticals. The pathophysiology of MDD is considered to involve a range of abnormalities (monoamine impairment, neuro-endocrinological changes, reduced brain-derived neurotrophic factor, and cytokine alterations). By targeting an array of these key neurobiological pathways via specific nutraceuticals (S-adenosyl methionine; [SAMe], 5-HTP [active tryptophan], folinic acid [active folic acid], omega-3 fatty acids, and zinc), there is the potential to provide a more comprehensive therapeutic biological approach to treat depression. We are currently conducting a National Health and Medical Research Council funded study in Australia (APP1048222). The clinical trial is phase II/III, multi-site, 3-arm, 8-week, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study using SAMe + folinic acid versus a combination nutraceutical (SAMe, 5-HTP, folinic acid, omega-3, and zinc) or matching placebo in 300 currently depressed participants with diagnosed MDD who are non-responsive to current antidepressants (ANZCTR, protocol number: 12613001300763). The results may provide evidence for a novel adjunctive neurobiological approach for treating depression.

Application of air quality combination forecasting to Bogota

The bulk of existing work on the statistical forecasting of air quality is based on either neural networks or linear regressions, which are both subject to important drawbacks. In particular, while neural networks are complicated and prone to in-sample overfitting, linear regressions are highly dependent on the specification of the regression function. The present paper shows how combining linear regression forecasts can be used to circumvent all of these problems. The usefulness of the proposed combination approach is verified using both Monte Carlo simulation and an extensive application to air quality in Bogota, one of the largest and most polluted cities in Latin America. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

The emergency powers in Bangladesh: means for subversion of the rule of law?

The Constitution of Bangladesh empowers the President to proclaim an emergency on the actual or imminent ground of war or external aggression or internal disturbance. However, the insertion of ‘internal disturbance’ in the Constitution as a ground for invoking emergency has provided the executive with the opportunity to proclaim all the five emergencies in Bangladesh on this vague ground for purposes other than that of securing the life of the nation. Furthermore, in the absence of any effective constitutional mechanisms for scrutinising the exercise of emergency powers and a time limit on the continuation of a state of emergency, some of the proclamations of emergency continued even after the alleged threat posed to the life of the nation was over to perpetuate the survival of the party in power by repressing any political threat to the regime. This Article, therefore, recommends for insertion in the Constitution of Bangladesh detailed norms providing for legal limits on the wide power of the executive concerning the proclamation, administration and termination of emergency with a view to ensure that emergencies can no longer be resorted to as the effective means of discarding the rule of law.