Economic network structures, growth and poverty

While investors are advised to diversify in order to manage risk, developing countries are advised instead to liberalise their trade regimes and specialise according to their current comparative advantage. This study uses 67 regions of the GTAP database to investigate the effects of unilateral liberalisation and its impacts on countries’ economic structures and the extent to which this affects countries’ vulnerability to an economic shock. While liberalisation resulted in improvements in GDP and welfare on average, there were significant variations. A number of countries experienced contractions in their GPDs and declines in welfare. While there was no evidence of a relationship between the percentage change in GDP and the initial export or output concentration, there was a positive relationship between the percentage change in GDP and the percentage change in export and output concentrations. On average, increases in GDP following liberalisation were associated with increases in concentration in both the export sector and in overall industrial output and also reductions in the fraction of unskilled labour employed by the main export sector. Initial GDP per capita has no significant effect, implying that once concentration measures and the fraction of costs in the main export are accounted for, the per capita income levels of a country show no systematic effects on the percentage change in GDP induced by the liberalisation. For developing countries undergoing unilateral liberalisation, the results imply that they are likely to experience an increase in GDP, but an increase accompanied by more highly concentrated industrial output and exports, and also a lower fraction of main export costs due to unskilled labour. Following liberalisation, the responses of liberalised and non-liberalised versions of the region’s economies to a shock were compared. The rest of the world’s productivity in the country’s main export was increased by 10%, with the liberalised economies faring marginally worse on average in welfare and terms of trade effects, but slightly better on GDP effects. When the net effects of the initial liberalisation and subsequent technology shock were compared, countries were better off on average if they had liberalised. But this average masked important sectoral differences. Countries specialising in sectors with high proportions of own-commodity inputs in their main export’s total cost, such as manufacturing, did best, while those specialising in food tended to suffer welfare declines. Higher levels of export and output concentration also tended to reduce welfare. This suggests that increased concentration does indeed make countries more vulnerable to certain economic shocks. Finally, the economic network structures of the two extreme cases, Tanzania and Vietnam are compared visually as an aid to interpretation.

A factor-augmented VAR approach : the effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada

In this paper a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is estimated to characterize the dynamic effects of shocks in the personal income tax rate in the United States on United States and Canadian economies. The representation and the estimate of the FAVAR model is based on Stock and Watson (2005) and the shocks are recovered applying the identification scheme proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005); this method allows impulse response functions to be generated for all the variables in the dataset and provides a description of the domestic and international transmission mechanisms of United States movements in the personal income tax rate. A distinguishing feature of our model is the disaggregation of traded goods sector where imports and exports are disaggregated into 12 and 13 industries, respectively. This provides extra information on the domestic and international transmission mechanism across the two countries. The results show that the FAVAR approach generates a reasonable characterisation of the effects of United States movements in the US personal income tax rate on the United States economy and its transmission to the Canadian economy.

Vitamin D, obesity, and obesity-related chronic disease among ethnic minorities : a systematic review

Objective : To assess the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) status and obesity, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in ethnic minorities.

Methods : Databases searched were CINHAL with full text, Global Health, MEDLINE with full text, and PsycINFO from 1980 through 2010 (February). Studies were included if they 1) targeted immigrants from low- to high-income countries or ethnic minorities, 2) focused primarily on 25(OH)D and its relation to obesity, T2DM, and/or CVDs, and 3) were published in peer-reviewed journals. The influences of key confounders such as age, gender, and ethnicity on any observed relations were also assessed. Due to the heterogeneity of study characteristics, only a narrative synthesis was undertaken.

Results : Ethnic minorities had significantly higher rates of vitamin D insufficiency (25[OH]D <50 nmol/L; children 43.6–48.7% versus 10%; adults 30.3–53% versus 13.7–26%) than their white counterparts. None of the studies reported a prevalence of obesity stratified by ethnicity. There was evidence supporting links between vitamin D deficiency and obesity-related chronic diseases, with 14 of 14 studies reporting a statistically significant result with a measurement of obesity, four of five for T2DM, four of five for CVDs, and one of one for the metabolic syndrome. However, the strength of the association varied across ethnic groups depending on the index used to measure adiposity, T2DM, and CVDs. Because most of the included studies were cross-sectional and there were variations in outcome measurements, it was not possible to determine the relative contributions of obesity or vitamin D insufficiency to CVD risk and risk of T2DM or which is the initial driver It is possible both have a role to play.

Conclusion : Further research specific to migrant populations using randomized controlled trials are required to establish whether causal links between 25(OH)D and obesity-related chronic disease exist, and whether vitamin D supplementation could be valuable in the prevention or treatment of obesity-related diseases.

Environmental and senescent related variations in Weddell seal body mass : implications for age-specific reproductive performance

Recent studies have found age-specific variations in reproductive performance amongst Weddell seals, Leptonychotes weddellii, and we hypothesized age-related variations in maternal body mass as a mechanism linking maternal age and the observed patterns of reproductive performance. We evaluated the effects of maternal traits such as age and reproductive experience and the effects of environmental variations on maternal body mass at parturition. Maternal body mass at parturition showed substantial age- and environmental-related variations. Maternal body mass increased with age through the young and middle ages, and evidence of senescent declines in body mass was found amongst the oldest ages. Additionally, body mass at parturition was strongly influenced by environmental variations during the pregnancy period, specifically sea-ice extent and the state of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation. Patterns of age-specific variations in body mass were consistent with age-specific patterns of offspring survival probability, which supported our hypothesis that changes in body mass link maternal age and reproductive performance in the Weddell seal. Further, environmental conditions during pregnancy may be an important component of Weddell seal reproductive performance.

Are shocks to national income persistent? New global evidence

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the integrational properties of real GDP for 125 countries
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Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies the Kwiatkowski et al. univariate test and a KPSS-type univariate test that accounts for multiple structural breaks – a test procedure proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. The panel versions of the KPSS-type test, proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. with and without structural breaks, are also applied.

Findings – The paper finds that, while univariate tests with and without structural breaks provide mixed results on persistence, the panel test suggests that shocks to national output are persistent.

Originality/value – This is a multi-country study that focuses on both developed and developing countries and uses more recent data to provide new and comparable evidence on the persistence of output.

Forecasting construction demand : a vector error correction model with dummy variables

Modelling the level of demand for construction is vital in policy formulation and implementation as the construction industry plays an important role in a country’s economic development process. In construction economics, research efforts on construction demand modelling and forecasting are various, but few researchers have considered the impact of global economy events in construction demand modelling. An advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector error correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was adopted to predict demand in the Australian construction market. The results of prediction accuracy tests suggest that the general VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variables are both acceptable for forecasting construction economic indicators. However, the VEC model that considers external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the general VEC model. The model estimates indicate that the growth in population, changes in national income, fluctuations in interest rates and changes in householder expenditure all play significant roles when explaining variations in construction demand. The VEC model with disturbances developed can serve as an experimentation using an advanced econometrical method which can be used to analyse the effect of specific events or factors on the construction market growth.

Influencing health equity : role of the effective consumer scale in measuring skills and abilities in a middle income country

The 2008 World Health Report emphasizes the need for patient-centered primary care service delivery models in which patients are equal partners in the planning and management of their health. It is argued that this involvement will lead to improved management of disease, improved health outcomes and patient satisfaction, better informed decision-making, increased compliance with healthcare decisions, and better resource utilization. This article investigates the domains captured by the Effective Consumer Scale (EC-17) in relation to vulnerable population groups that experience health inequity. Particular focus is paid to the domain of health literacy as an area fundamental to patients’ involvement in managing their condition and negotiating the healthcare system. In examining the possible influence of Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) on health equity, we used the recent translation and validation of the EC-17 scale into Spanish and tested Argentina as an example. Future plans to use the EC-17 with vulnerable groups include formal collaboration and needs assessment with the community to tailor an intervention to meet its needs in a culturally relevant manner. Some systematic reviews have questioned whether interventions to improve effective consumer skills are appropriate in vulnerable populations. We propose that these populations may have the most to gain from such interventions since they might be expected to have relatively lower skills and health literacy than other groups.

Income support best way of fixing equity : Go8

The Go8 has broken ranks with other university groups in suggesting that base funding shouldn’t have an equity component.

Effects of lipoprotein lipase gene variations, a high-carbohydrate low-fat diet, and gender on serum lipid profiles in healthy Chinese Han youth

A high-carbohydrate low-fat (HC/LF) diet and lipoprotein lipase gene (LPL) Ser447Stop and Hind III polymorphisms have separately been found to be associated with triacylglycerol (TG) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). This study sought to test the effects of LPL polymorphisms and an HC/LF diet on the serum lipid profile of Chinese with a lower incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) consuming a diet with less fat and more carbohydrates. Fifty-six healthy subjects (22.89 ± 1.80 years) were given a control diet of 30.1% fat and 54.1% carbohydrates for 7 days, followed by an HC/LF diet of 13.8% fat and 70.1% carbohydrate for 6 days; there were no changes in the fatty acid composition or restrictions on total energy. Serum lipid profiles at baseline, before and after the HC/LF diet, and LPL polymorphisms were analyzed. After 6 days of the HC/LF diet, TG and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMAIR) index were found to increase only in females with S447S. No decrease in HDL-C was noted. In subjects with Hind III polymorphism, increased TG was found in all females but not in males. Increased HDL-C, together with apolipoprotein (apo) AI, was found in male H- carriers but not in males with H+/H+ and females. In conclusion, LPL Ser447Stop and Hind III polymorphisms modified the effects of an HC/LF diet on the serum lipid profiles of a young Chinese population in different ways. Effective strategies for dietary interventions targeted at younger populations should take into account the interplay between genetic polymorphisms, diet, and gender.

Mutual obligation? Regulating by supervision and surveillance in Australian income support policy

Through an analysis of speeches by government ministers, documents and regulations, this article examines the Australian national government’s surveillance of unemployed people through what is known as Activity Testing, and more specifically as Mutual Obligation. It seeks to merge the social policy analysis of Mutual Obligation with a surveillance perspective in order to delve deeper into the underlying nature of the policy and its implications for people who are unemployed. It does this by 1. Outlining the neo-liberal political theory underlying these policies; 2. Illustrating the nature and extent of surveillance of people in receipt of income support, and 3. Employing Foucault’s concepts of the technologies of domination and the self to highlight the controlling and coercive aspects of Mutual Obligation in achieving certain of the Government’s political and policy objectives. In doing so, the analysis will make visible something of the power exerted over the disadvantaged while subject to such surveillance.

Long-term species, sexual and individual variations in foraging strategies of fur seals revealed by stable isotopes in whiskers

Background: Individual variations in the use of the species niche are an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. A challenge in testing consistency of individual foraging strategy is the repeated collection of information on the same individuals.

Methodology/Principal Findings: The foraging strategies of sympatric fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) were examined using the stable isotope signature of serially sampled whiskers. Most whiskers exhibited synchronous delta C-13 and delta N-15 oscillations that correspond to the seal annual movements over the long term (up to 8 years). delta C-13 and delta N-15 values were spread over large ranges, with differences between species, sexes and individuals. The main segregating mechanism operates at the spatial scale. Most seals favored foraging in subantarctic waters (where the Crozet Islands are located) where they fed on myctophids. However, A. gazella dispersed in the Antarctic Zone and A. tropicalis more in the subtropics. Gender differences in annual time budget shape the seal movements. Males that do not perform any parental care exhibited large isotopic oscillations reflecting broad annual migrations, while isotopic values of females confined to a limited foraging range during lactation exhibited smaller changes. Limited inter-individual isotopic variations occurred in female seals and in male A. tropicalis. In contrast, male A. gazella showed large inter-individual variations, with some males migrating repeatedly to high-Antarctic waters where they fed on krill, thus meaning that individual specialization occurred over years.

Conclusions/Significance: Whisker isotopic signature yields unique long-term information on individual behaviour that integrates the spatial, trophic and temporal dimensions of the ecological niche. The method allows depicting the entire realized niche of the species, including some of its less well-known components such as age-, sex-, individual- and migration-related changes. It highlights intrapopulation heterogeneity in foraging strategies that could have important implications for likely demographic responses to environmental variability.

Variations, trends and patterns of fish landings in large tropical reservoirs

Temporal variations of fish yields in four major reservoirs in Thailand (Ubolratana; Sirindhorn; Srinakarin; Vajiralongkorn) were investigated with the use of long-term fish landing data (≥20years). The long-term variations in fish yield, measured as the coefficient of variation of yearly yield, ranged mostly between 50% and 100%. For short-term variations, the means of the relative variation (85%) were larger than the absolute variation (63%). This finding indicates that short-term variations were inversely related to fish yield and that a higher uncertainty occurs when fish catches are low. The stocked exotic species exhibited higher variations than the indigenous species. The trend analyses indicated some species had sharply declined fish landings, while some species were quite stable (i.e. reservoir-adapted species). Stocked species tended to increase in relatively shallow reservoirs, compared to the deep reservoir. Fish landing data for each reservoir were patternized, using the self-organizing map, indicating temporal trends of chronological order. The differences among clusters in each reservoir were with respect to the weight of each species in the fish landings in each year, and temporal changes in species composition in the reservoirs, which would primarily be attributed to the environmental changes followed by anthropogenic pressures. The mean trophic level (τ) fluctuated, resulting from changes in species composition and weight of fish landing, as well as fish stocking programmes.