Financial constraints and stock returns — evidence from Australia

Using multiple discriminant analysis, we construct an index thatmeasures firms' external financial constraints in an Australian setting.We form portfolios of firms based on our financial constraints index andfind that financially constrained firms earn lower return than theirunconstrained counterparts. Moreover, stock returns of financiallyconstrained firms are found to move together, indicating the potentialexistence of a financial constraints factor. Neither the variation nor themean return of the constraints factor are well explained by existing assetpricing models, suggesting an independent role for our financialconstraints factor in affecting stock returns.

Can consumer price index predict gold price returns?

In this paper using data for 54 countries we test whether consumer price index (CPI) predicts gold price returns. Our test for predictability is based on a recently developed flexible generalised least squares estimator, which most importantly accommodates the endogeneity of CPI, its persistency and any heteroskedasticity in the model. We find limited evidence that CPI predicts gold price returns in in-sample tests; however, out-of-sample tests reveal relatively strong evidence that CPI predicts gold returns. These results are robust to different forecasting horizons. On the whole, we discover reasonable evidence that consumer prices predict gold price returns.

Are Islamic stock returns predictable? : a global perspective

Using the sharia-compliant measures, we compile a data set that spans January 1981 to December 2014 and contains 2577 Islamic stocks. Using as many as 12 financial and macroeconomic predictors, we discover strong evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample return predictability. There is robust evidence of predictability only when U.S. stock returns are used as a predictor. We find that investing in regional (industry) portfolios offers on average, across the 12 predictors, meaningful profits of 6.16% (6.03%) per annum. Investing in a portfolio of Islamic stocks belonging to emerging markets (9.89% per annum) and a portfolio of Islamic stocks belonging to the consumer goods sector (6.37% per annum) offers the most returns amongst regions and industries, respectively.