Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

The Australian burden of disease study : measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top- ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Cultural understanding of health and adjustment to cardiovascular disease among the Greek elderly

The onset of chronic illness is a major lef event that presents serious challenges for the individual at a micro and macro level. The way in which adaptation to such illness occurs is closely related to cultural and linguistic factors that are an integral part of personal identity. This study presents the health beliefs of elderly Greek Australians and they way in which they understand health and disease. The process by which this population conceptualizes CVD and seeks medical care is discussed in the context of their specific cultural views and attitudes towards illness.

Cardiovascular disease in Europe 2014: epidemiological update

This paper provides an update for 2014 on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and in particular coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, across the countries of Europe. Cardiovascular disease causes moredeaths among Europeans than any other condition, and in many countries still causes more than twice as many deaths as cancer. There is clear evidence in most countries with available data that mortality and casefatality rates from CHD and stroke have decreased substantially over the last 5–10 years but at differing rates. The differing recent trends have therefore led to increasing inequalities in the burden of CVD between countries. For some Eastern European countries, including Russia and Ukraine, the mortality rate for CHD for 55–60 year olds is greater than the equivalent rate in France for people 20 years older.

Comorbid depression and health-related quality of life in patients with coronary artery disease.

This article reviews recent studies relating to the impact of depression and its treatment on the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD).

Validity of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 to screen for depression in patients with coronary artery disease.

Depression is common but frequently undetected in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Self-report screening instruments for assessing depression such as the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) are available but their validity is typically determined in depressed patients without comorbid somatic illness. We investigated the validity of these instruments relative to a referent diagnostic standard in recently hospitalized patients with CAD.

A shared framework for the common mental disorders and Non-Communicable Disease: key considerations for disease prevention and control.

BACKGROUND: Historically, the focus of Non Communicable Disease (NCD) prevention and control has been cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cancer and chronic respiratory diseases. Collectively, these account for more deaths than any other NCDs. Despite recent calls to include the common mental disorders (CMDs) of depression and anxiety under the NCD umbrella, prevention and control of these CMDs remain largely separate and independent. DISCUSSION: In order to address this gap, we apply a framework recently proposed by the Centers for Disease Control with three overarching objectives: (1) to obtain better scientific information through surveillance, epidemiology, and prevention research; (2) to disseminate this information to appropriate audiences through communication and education; and (3) to translate this information into action through programs, policies, and systems. We conclude that a shared framework of this type is warranted, but also identify opportunities within each objective to advance this agenda and consider the potential benefits of this approach that may exist beyond the health care system.

Cardiovascular disease in Europe - epidemiological update 2015

This article provides an update for 2015 on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with a particular focus on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, across the countries of Europe. Cardiovascular disease is still the most common cause of death within Europe, causing almost two times as many deaths as cancer across the continent. Although there is clear evidence, where data are available, that mortality from CHD and stroke has decreased substantially over the last 5-10 years, there are still large inequalities found between European countries, in both current rates of death and the rate at which these decreases have occurred. Similarly, rates of treatment, particularly surgical intervention, differ widely between those countries for which data are available, indicating a range of inequalities between them. This is also the first time in the series that we use the 2013 European Standard Population (ESP) to calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDRs). This new standard results in ASDRs around two times as large as the 1976 ESP for CVD conditions such as CHD but changes little the relative rankings of countries according to ASDR.

Implementing guidelines to routinely prevent chronic vascular disease in primary care: the preventive evidence into practice cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To evaluate an intervention to improve implementation of guidelines for the prevention of chronic vascular disease. Setting: 32 urban general practices in 4 Australian states. Randomisation: Stratified randomisation of practices. Participants: 122 general practitioners (GPS) and practice nurses (PNs) were recruited at baseline and 97 continued to 12 months. 21 848 patient records were audited for those aged 40-69 years who attended the practice in the previous 12 months without heart disease, stroke, diabetes, chronic renal disease, cognitive impairment or severe mental illness. Intervention: The practice level intervention over 6 months included small group training of practice staff, feedback on audited performance, practice facilitation visits and provision of patient education and referral information. Outcome measures: Primary: 1. Change in proportion of patients aged 40-69 years with smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP) recorded and for those aged 45-69 years with lipids, fasting blood glucose and cardiovascular risk in the medical record. 2. Change in the level of risk for each factor. Secondary: change in self-reported frequency and confidence of GPS and PNs in assessment. Results: Risk recording improved in the intervention but not the control group for WC (OR 2.52 (95% CI 1.30 to 4.91)), alcohol consumption (OR 2.19 (CI 1.04 to 4.64)), smoking status (OR 2.24 (1.17 to 4.29)) and cardiovascular risk (OR 1.50 (1.04 to 2.18)). There was no change in recording of BP, lipids, glucose or BMI and no significant change in the level of risk factors based on audit data. The confidence but not reported practices of GPS and PNs in the intervention group improved in the assessment of some risk factors. Conclusions: This intervention was associated with improved recording of some risk factors but no change in the level of risk at the follow-up audit. Trial registration number: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR): ACTRN12612000578808, results.

Cardiovascular disease in Europe 2015 : epidemiological update

This article provides an update for 2015 on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with a particular focus on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, across the countries of Europe. Cardiovascular disease is still the most common cause of death within Europe, causing almost two times as many deaths as cancer across the continent. Although there is clear evidence, where data are available, that mortality from CHD and stroke has decreased substantially over the last 5–10 years, there are still large inequalities found between European countries, in both current rates of death and the rate at which these decreases have occurred. Similarly, rates of treatment, particularly surgical intervention, differ widely between those countries for which data are available, indicating a range of inequalities between them. This is also the first time in the series that we use the 2013 European Standard Population (ESP) to calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDRs). This new standard results in ASDRs around two times as large as the 1976 ESP for CVD conditions such as CHD but changes little the relative rankings of countries according to ASDR.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The HEART mobile phone trial: the partial mediating effects of self-efficacy on physical activity among cardiac patients

BACKGROUND: The ubiquitous use of mobile phones provides an ideal opportunity to deliver interventions to increase physical activity levels. Understanding potential mediators of such interventions is needed to increase their effectiveness. A recent randomized controlled trial of a mobile phone and Internet (mHealth) intervention was conducted in New Zealand to determine the effectiveness on exercise capacity and physical activity levels in addition to current cardiac rehabilitation (CR) services for people (n = 171) with ischemic heart disease. Significant intervention effect was observed for self-reported leisure-time physical activity and walking, but not peak oxygen uptake at 24 weeks. There was also significant improvement in self-efficacy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mediating effect of self-efficacy on physical activity levels in an mHealth delivered exercise CR program.

METHODS: Treatment evaluations were performed on the principle of intention to treat. Adjusted regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the main treatment effect on leisure-time physical activity and walking at 24 weeks, with and without change in self-efficacy as the mediator of interest.

RESULTS: Change in self-efficacy at 24 weeks significantly mediated the treatment effect on leisure-time physical activity by 13%, but only partially mediated the effect on walking by 4% at 24 weeks.

CONCLUSION: An mHealth intervention involving text messaging and Internet support had a positive treatment effect on leisure-time physical activity and walking at 24 weeks, and this effect was likely mediated through changes in self-efficacy. Future trials should examine other potential mediators related to this type of intervention.

How do the Australian guidelines for lipid-lowering drugs perform in practice? Cardiovascular disease risk in the AusDiab Study, 1999-2000

OBJECTIVE: To determine how well the current Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) eligibility criteria for subsidy of lipid-lowering drugs compare with current national guidelines for determining the population at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Analyses of the population-based, cross-sectional Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, conducted in 1999-2000. The 1991 Framingham risk prediction equation was used to compute 5-year risk of developing first-time CVD in 8286 participants aged 30-74 years with neither CVD nor diabetes. Based on the National Heart Foundation of Australia and Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand guidelines, people with either 5-year CVD risk > or = 15% or with 5-year CVD risk of 10%-< 15% and the metabolic syndrome were defined as having estimated high absolute CVD risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5-year CVD risk; estimated population with high CVD risk. RESULTS: Among participants without prevalent CVD or diabetes, 7.9% of men and 1.5% of women had a 5-year CVD risk > or = 15%. Of the estimated residential Australian population in 2000 aged 30-74 years without CVD or diabetes, 717 000 people were considered to be at high absolute CVD risk. Among the high-risk AusDiab participants without CVD or diabetes, only 16.9% of men and 15.4% of women were being treated with lipid-lowering drugs. Of the 9.6% of participants free of CVD and diabetes who were untreated but eligible for subsidy under PBS criteria, only 27.4% had an estimated high absolute CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Strategies for CVD prevention using lipid-lowering medications can be improved by adoption of the absolute-risk approach.