Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background While the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. The authors examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship.

Methods Adults (n=38 355) aged 40–69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990–1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports.

Results CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only, compared with those who had completed tertiary education, with an HR of 1.66 (95% CI 1.10 to 2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared with the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups.

Conclusions Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socio-economic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socio-economic groups.

Estimating the disease burden of alcohol : the problems arising when data and policy interact

While the risk of many disease or injury conditions is raised by the presence of health risk factors, it is usually impossible to identify individual risk-factor caused cases. However, the overall burden of disease and injury attributable to various health risks can be estimated if we know the prevalence of exposure to the risk factor in the community and the relative risk of each causally associated disease or injury for those exposed to the risk factor. This paper describes the estimation of the total number of deaths and hospital episodes attributable to alcohol consumption. It also describes how some methodologically trivial variations to the estimation methods raised some major issues in interpreting the results for the development of public policy.

Comorbidity of cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease in Australia

This is the first report of a projected series regarding the comorbidity of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Australia. Comorbidity refers to any two or more of these diseases that occur in one person at the same time. The questions to be answered in this report include: 1. How many Australians have comorbidity of CVD, diabetes and CKD? 2. What is the proportion of hospitalisations with these comorbidities? 3. How much do these comorbidities contribute to deaths? 4. What is the magnitude of comorbidity in the context of each individual disease? 5. Are there differences in the distribution of these comorbidities among age groups and sexes?

The quantification of drug-caused mortality and morbidity in Australia, 1998

The aetiological fraction methodology and the associated fraction estimates enable estimation of the proportion of cases of an illness or injury that can be attributed to a risk factor. This report presents aetiological fraction estimates attributing deaths and hospital separations resulting from a range of specific illnesses or injuries to tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs. The fractions represent a revision of the fractions originally presented by Holman et al. (1990) and later revised by English et al. (1995). Also presented here are estimates of 1998 mortality and 1997–98 hospital separations attributable to alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs based on the revised fractions.

Towards a standardised methodology for estimating alcohol-caused death, injury and illness in Australia

Two key methodological issues underlying different methods for calculating estimates of the number of alcohol-caused deaths are identified and recommendations suggested for future work.

1. How to adjust alcohol aetiologic fractions across time and place to reflect different levels of risky drinking. A common approach is outlined for both acute and chronic alcohol-related conditions. In the absence of consistent, reliable and regionally specific measures of the prevalence of risky alcohol consumption from national surveys, the use of per capita consumption data as a means of adjusting alcohol population aetiologic fractions over time and across regions is recommended.

2. Whether abstainers or low-risk drinkers should be used as the reference group when assessing the impact of alcohol consumption and how the resulting information is best presented. It is recommended that when abstainers are used as the reference group, the costs and benefits for both 'low-risk' and 'risky/high-risk' drinking should be identified. Using this approach, it was estimated that for Australia in 1998 there was a net benefit of 5,100 lives saved due to low-risk drinking, while there was a net loss of 2,737 lives due to risky/high-risk drinking. On its own, the figure of a net saving of 2,363 lives per year is a simplistic and potentially misleading picture of alcohol as a net benefit to public health and safety. For public health communications, there is still value in providing estimates using the low-risk drinking contrast, of the number of lives saved if risky/high-risk drinkers all became low-risk drinkers (n=3,292 in 1998). The use of the abstinence contrast, however, allows the more complex picture of alcohol's impact on public health to be apparent, e.g. including the estimated 1,505 deaths associated with low-risk drinking (mostly from cancer).

Cost-effectiveness of mammographic screening in Australia

The purpose of this research was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of mammographic screening to supplement the results of the National Evaluation of Breast Cancer Screening which identified the mortality benefit as the most sensitive parameter. This appraisal used a different computer model, MISCAN, which models the effects of introducing a national screening program into a previously unscreened population, rather than basing estimates on the assumption of a fully established program. For the 40 to 49 age group a mortality reduction of 8 per cent was assumed, rather than the 30 per cent estimate utilised in the National Evaluation. The revised estimate is based on the two Swedish trials (Malmo and WE). New estimates for treatment costs were also incorporated into the MISCAN model. The cost-effectiveness of the policy recommended in the National Evaluation Report, $11 000 per life year saved with two-yearly screening of women over 40, is estimated by the MISCAN model to be $20 300. These differences arise partly from the difference in mortality effects for the 40 to 49 age group, but also from differences inherent in the steady-state and dynamic population approaches to modelling premature deaths averted. The MISCAN results confirm that screening for women over 50 is more cost-effective than screening women under 50. Screening all women aged 50 to 69 every two to three years is reasonable value for money. For women aged 40 to 49 the mortality benefit and cost-effectiveness is less clear, and it would be prudent to allow screening in this group until further evidence is available.

From cholera outbreaks to pandemics : the role of poverty and inequality

Cholera and other diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death among the poor globally. The tragedy of this statistic is that it need not be the case. Unlike many afflictions, the impact of cholera can be greatly reduced, if not eliminated, through the provision of clean water services. This begs the question of why such provision is absent in much of the world. It is our contention that the provision of clean water services is an increasing function of both a country's level of income and income equality. We test these hypotheses by analyzing 1,032 annual observations arising from 55 relatively poor countries between the years 1980 and 2002. In the primary part of the analysis, we find that providing clean water is, as predicted, an increasing function of income and equality. Following this, and consistent with the existing epidemiological research on cholera, we find that both the numbers of cases and deaths resulting from a given cholera outbreak are strongly and negatively related to the provision of clean water.

Ghosts in the machine : do the dead live on in Facebook?

Of the many ways in which identity is constructed and performed online, few are as strongly ‘anchored’ to existing offline relationships as in online social networks like Facebook and Myspace. These networks utilise profiles that extend our practical, psychological and even corporeal identity in ways that give them considerable phenomenal presence in the lives of spatially distant people. This raises interesting questions about the persistence of identity when these online profiles survive the deaths of the users behind them, via the practice of ‘memorialising’ social network profile pages. I situate these practices within a phenomenology of grief that accounts for the ways in which the dead can persist as moral patients, and show how online survival in this case illuminates an important difference between persons and selves within contemporary philosophy of personal identity. Ultimately, the online persistence of the dead helps bring into view a deep ontological contradiction implicit in our dealings with death: the dead both live on as objects of duty and yet completely cease to exist.

Dealing with alcohol-related harm and the night-time economy

Alcohol-related problems are a major cause of social disorder and illness in Australia. In particular, problems associated with the night-time economies of urban and regional centres cause substantial community concern and are a considerable drain on police, community and health resources. The estimated cost of alcohol to the community is $15.3 billion, including costs associated with crime, violence, patient treatment, loss of productivity and premature deaths in 2004–05 (Collins 2008). Alcohol has also been identified as a factor in around three quarters of assaults and incidents of offensive behaviour on the street (Buss 1995). Previous research has identified several issues that contribute to the levels of short-term harm associated with risky drinking. These include: excessive consumption at licensed premises, consumption in public areas and lack of transport and security in entertainment precincts (Homel et al. 1992; Graham & Homel 2008).

Drinking in licensed venues is another predictor of harm and public disorder. More than half of offences occurring on the street have been associated with licensed premises in Australia (Buss 1995). A complex range of factors increase risky drinking and associated harms on licensed premises including: aspects of patron mix; levels of comfort, boredom, and intoxication; promotions that cause mass intoxication; and the behaviour of security/bouncers (Homel et al. 1992). Violence has also been shown to be perpetuated by poor venue management, lax police surveillance, lack of transport options for patrons, and inappropriate bureaucratic controls and legislation (Homel et al. 1992). This project aims to provide evidence-based knowledge regarding the implementation and impact of innovative local initiatives directed at alcohol-related harms.

The natural history of self-harm from adolescence to young adulthood : a population-based cohort study

Background Knowledge about the natural history of self-harm is scarce, especially during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood, a period characterised by a sharp rise in self-inflicted deaths. From a repeated measures cohort of a representative sample, we describe the course of self-harm from middle adolescence to young adulthood.

Methods A stratified, random sample of 1943 adolescents was recruited from 44 schools across the state of Victoria, Australia, between August, 1992, and January, 2008. We obtained data pertaining to self-harm from questionnaires and telephone interviews at seven waves of follow-up, commencing at mean age 15·9 years (SD 0·49) and ending at mean age 29·0 years (SD 0·59). Summary adolescent measures (waves three to six) were obtained for cannabis use, cigarette smoking, high-risk alcohol use, depression and anxiety, antisocial behaviour and parental separation or divorce.

Findings 1802 participants responded in the adolescent phase, with 149 (8%) reporting self-harm, More girls (95/947 [10%]) than boys (54/855 [6%]) reported self-harm (risk ratio 1·6, 95% CI 1·2–2·2). We recorded a substantial reduction in the frequency of self-harm during late adolescence. 122 of 1652 (7%) participants who reported self-harm during adolescence reported no further self-harm in young adulthood, with a stronger continuity in girls (13/888) than boys (1/764). During adolescence, incident self-harm was independently associated with symptoms of depression and anxiety (HR 3·7, 95% CI 2·4–5·9), antisocial behaviour (1·9, 1·1–3·4), high-risk alcohol use (2·1, 1·2–3·7), cannabis use (2·4, 1·4–4·4), and cigarette smoking (1·8, 1·0–3·1). Adolescent symptoms of depression and anxiety were clearly associated with incident self-harm in young adulthood (5·9, 2·2–16).

Interpretation Most self-harming behaviour in adolescents resolves spontaneously. The early detection and treatment of common mental disorders during adolescence might constitute an important and hitherto unrecognised component of suicide prevention in young adults.

Funding National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia, and operational infrastructure support programme, Government of Victoria, Australia.

Effect of timing of dialysis commencement on clincial outcomes of patients with planned initiation of peritoneal dialysis in the ideal trial

Background: Since the mid-1990s, early dialysis initiation has dramatically increased in many countries. The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late (IDEAL) study demonstrated that, compared with late initiation, planned early initiation of dialysis was associated with comparable clinical outcomes and increased health care costs. Because residual renal function is a key determinant of outcome and is better preserved with peritoneal dialysis (PD), the present pre-specified subgroup analysis of the IDEAL trial examined the effects of early-compared with late-start dialysis on clinical outcomes in patients whose planned therapy at the time of randomization was PD.

Methods: Adults with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 10 - 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 who planned to be treated with PD were randomly allocated to commence dialysis at an eGFR of 10 - 14 mL/min/1.73 m2 (early start) or 5 - 7 mL/min/1.73 m2 (late start). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

Results: Of the 828 IDEAL trial participants, 466 (56%) planned to commence PD and were randomized to early start (n = 233) or late start (n = 233). The median times from randomization to dialysis initiation were, respectively, 2.03 months [interquartile range (IQR):1.67 - 2.30 months] and 7.83 months (IQR: 5.83 - 8.83 months). Death occurred in 102 early-start patients and 96 late-start patients [hazard ratio: 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79 - 1.37]. No differences in composite cardiovascular events, composite infectious deaths, or dialysis-associated complications were observed between the groups. Peritonitis rates were 0.73 episodes (95% CI: 0.65 - 0.82 episodes) per patient-year in the early-start group and 0.69 episodes (95% CI: 0.61 - 0.78 episodes) per patient-year in the late-start group (incidence rate ratio: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.86 - 1.65; p = 0.29). The proportion of patients planning to commence PD who actually initiated dialysis with PD was higher in the early-start group (80% vs 70%, p = 0.01).

Conclusion: Early initiation of dialysis in patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease who planned to be treated with PD was associated with clinical outcomes comparable to those seen with late dialysis initiation. Compared with early-start patients, late-start patients who had chosen PD as their planned dialysis modality were less likely to commence on PD.

Prospective randomized controlled trial comparing dynamic hip screw and screw fixation for undisplaced subcapital hip fractures

Background
Neck of femur fractures (NOFFs) are a common cause of morbidity and mortality in our community. Minimally displaced intracapsular fractures are treated with internal fixation by a two-hole dynamic hip screw (DHS) or three partially threaded cancellous screws. Data to support the superiority of one are limited. This prospective randomized controlled trial compares outcomes with these two fixation methods.

Methods
We prospectively recruited patients over 50 years, with an acute fracture subcapital NOFF, who walked and lived independently, and were cognitively intact. They were randomized into DHS or cancellous screw groups and followed up for 2 years (overall 75.9%). Outcomes of mortality, revision, loss of fixation, avascular necrosis, surgical complications, WOMAC, Harris hip score and SF-12 were measured.

Results
We recruited 62 patients (31 DHS, 29 cancellous screws, 2 failed consent). Six deaths (19.3%) were seen in each group. A total of 3.2% of DHS (1 out of 31) and 10.3% (3 out of 29) of cancellous screw patients required re-operation (P = 0.272). There was no statistical significant difference in patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), radiological union or osteonecrosis. There are trends towards better functional scores and QoL in cancellous screws, particularly at 1 year (P = 0.0061), but with a higher re-operation rate. There was a combined mortality and transition to institutional care of 40.0% (24 out of 60) at 2 years.

Conclusions
This study found no difference in outcomes between DHS and cancellous screws in the treatment of subcapital NOFFs in a fit, independent population, but we found a high level of physical decline in previously fit, independently ambulating patients. A large, multicentre trial will be required to differentiate between these two fixation methods.

Estimating fatality rates in occupational light vehicle users using vehicle registration and crash data

Objective: To estimate occupational light vehicle (OLV) fatality numbers using vehicle registration and crash data and compare these with previous estimates based on workers' compensation data. Method: New South Wales (NSW) Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) vehicle registration and crash data were obtained for 2004. NSW is the only Australian jurisdiction with mandatory work-use registration, which was used as a proxy for work-relatedness. OLV fatality rates based on registration data as the denominator were calculated and comparisons made with published 2003/04 fatalities based on workers' compensation data. Results: Thirty-four NSW RTA OLV-user fatalities were identified, a rate of 4.5 deaths per 100,000 organisationally registered OLV, whereas the Australian Safety and Compensation Council (ASCC), reported 28 OLV deaths Australia-wide. Conclusions: More OLV user fatalities were identified from vehicle registration-based data than those based on workers' compensation estimates and the data are likely to provide an improved estimate of fatalities specific to OLV use. Implications: OLV-use is an important cause of traumatic fatalities that would be better identified through the use of vehicle-registration data, which provides a stronger evidence base from which to develop policy responses.

Death or survival from invasive pneumococcal disease in Scotland: associations with serogroups and multilocus sequence types

We describe associations between death from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and particular serogroups and sequence types (STs) determined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) using data from Scotland. All IPD episodes where blood or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture isolates were referred to the Scottish Haemophilus, Legionella, Meningococcal and Pneumococcal Reference Laboratory (SHLMPRL) from January 1992 to February 2007 were matched to death certification records by the General Register Office for Scotland. This represented 5959 patients. The median number of IPD cases in Scotland each year was 292. Deaths, from any cause, within 30 days of pneumococcal culture from blood or CSF were considered to have IPD as a contributing factor. Eight hundred and thirty-three patients died within 30 days of culture of Streptococcus pneumoniae from blood or CSF [13.95 %; 95 % confidence interval (13.10, 14.80)]. The highest death rates were in patients over the age of 75. Serotyping data exist for all years but MLST data were only available from 2001 onward. The risk ratio of dying from infection due to particular serogroups or STs compared to dying from IPD due to all other serogroups or STs was calculated. Fisher’s exact test with Bonferroni adjustment for multiple testing was used. Age adjustment was accomplished using the Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel test and 95 % confidence intervals were reported. Serogroups 3, 11 and 16 have increased probability of causing fatal IPD in Scotland while serogroup 1 IPD has a reduced probability of causing death. None of the 20 most common STs were significantly associated with death within 30 days of pneumococcal culture, after age adjustment. We conclude that there is a stronger association between a fatal outcome and pneumococcal capsular serogroup than there is between a fatal outcome and ST.