90 resultados para confidence intervals


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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether participation in a four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health programme results in an improvement in risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Adults employed within Australia in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a workplace programme, the Global Corporate Challenge®, aimed at increasing physical activity were recruited. Data included demographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biomedical measurements. Measures were compared between baseline and four-months. RESULTS: 762 participants were recruited in April/May 2008 with 79% returning. Improvements between baseline and four-months amongst programme participants were observed for physical activity (an increase of 6.5% in the proportion meeting guidelines, OR(95%CI): 1.7(1.1, 2.5)), fruit intake (4%, OR: 1.7(1.0, 3.0)), vegetable intake (2%, OR: 1.3(1.0, 1.8)), sitting time (-0.6(-0.9, -0.3) hours/day), blood pressure (systolic: -1.8(-3.1, -.05) mmHg; diastolic: -1.8(-2.4, -1.3) mmHg) and waist circumference (-1.6(-2.4, -0.7) cm). In contrast, an increase was found for fasting total cholesterol (0.3(0.1, 0.4) mmol/L) and triglycerides (0.1(0.0, 0.1) mmol/L). CONCLUSION: Completion of this four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace programme was associated with improvements in behavioural and anthropometric risk factors for diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Long-term evaluation is required to evaluate the potential of such programmes to prevent the onset of chronic disease.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare the prevalence of acetabular labral tear in male and female professional ballet dancers with age-matched and sex-matched sporting participants and to determine the relationship to clinical findings and cartilage defects. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Clinical and radiology practices. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-nine (98 hips) male and female professional ballet dancers (current and retired) with median age 30 years (range: 19-64 years) and 49 (98 hips) age-matched and sex-matched sporting participants. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: Group (ballet or sports), sex, age, hip cartilage defects, history of hip pain, Hip and Groin Outcome Score, passive hip internal rotation (IR), and external rotation range of movement (ROM). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Labral tear identified with 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). RESULTS: Labral tears were identified in 51% of all 196 hips. The prevalence did not differ significantly between the ballet and sporting participants (P = 0.41) or between sexes (P = 0.34). Labral tear was not significantly associated with clinical measures, such as pain and function scores or rotation ROM (P > 0.01 for all). Pain provocation test using IR at 90° of hip flexion had excellent specificity [96%, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 0.77%-0.998%] but poor sensitivity (50%, 95% CI, 0.26%-0.74%) for identifying labral tear in participants reporting hip pain. Older age and cartilage defect presence were independently associated with an increased risk of labral tear (both P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of labral tear in male and female professional ballet dancers was similar to a sporting population. Labral tears were not associated with clinical findings but were related to cartilage defects, independent of aging. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Caution is required when interpreting MRI findings as labral tear may not be the source of the ballet dancer's symptoms.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Participation in regular physical activity is associated with better physical function in older people (>65 years); however, older people are the least active of all age groups. Exercise-based active video games (AVGs) offer an alternative to traditional exercise programs aimed at maintaining or enhancing physical performance measures in older people. This review systematically evaluated whether AVGs could improve measures of physical performance in older people. Secondary measures of safety, game appeal, and usability were also considered. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for randomized controlled trials published up to April 2015. Included were trials with 2 or more arms that evaluated the effect of AVGs on outcome measures of physical performance in older people. RESULTS: Eighteen randomized controlled trials (n = 765) were included. Most trials limited inclusion to healthy community-dwelling older people. With the exception of 1 trial, all AVG programs were supervised. Using meta-analyses, AVGs were found to be more effective than conventional exercise (mean difference [MD], 4.33; 95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.93-5.73) or no intervention (MD, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.17-1.29) for improving Berg Balance scores in community-dwelling older people. Active video games were also more effective than control for improving 30-second sit-to-stand scores (MD, 3.99; 95% CI, 1.92-6.05). No significant differences in Timed Up and Go scores were found when AVGs were compared with no intervention or with conventional exercise. CONCLUSIONS: Active video games can improve measures of mobility and balance in older people when used either on their own or as part of an exercise program. It is not yet clear whether AVGs are equally suitable for older people with significant cognitive impairments or balance or mobility limitations. Given the positive findings to date, consideration could be given to further development of age-appropriate AVGs for use by older people with balance or mobility limitations.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially.

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Risk variants of fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have been associated with increased obesity. However, the evidence for associations between FTO genotype and macronutrient intake has not been reviewed systematically. Our aim was to evaluate the potential associations between FTO genotype and intakes of total energy, fat, carbohydrate and protein. We undertook a systematic literature search in OVID MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE and Cochrane of associations between macronutrient intake and FTO genotype in adults. Beta coefficients and confidence intervals (CIs) were used for per allele comparisons. Random-effect models assessed the pooled effect sizes. We identified 56 eligible studies reporting on 213,173 adults. For each copy of the FTO risk allele, individuals reported 6.46 kcal day(-1) (95% CI: 10.76, 2.16) lower total energy intake (P = 0.003). Total fat (P = 0.028) and protein (P = 0.006), but not carbohydrate intakes, were higher in those carrying the FTO risk allele. After adjustment for body weight, total energy intakes remained significantly lower in individuals with the FTO risk genotype (P = 0.028). The FTO risk allele is associated with a lower reported total energy intake and with altered patterns of macronutrient intake. Although significant, these differences are small and further research is needed to determine whether the associations are independent of dietary misreporting.

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Background: There is accumulating evidence that progressive changes in brain structure and function take place as schizophrenia unfolds. Among many possible candidates, oxidative stress may be one of the mediators of neuroprogression, grey matter loss and subsequent cognitive and functional impairment. Antioxidants are exogenous or endogenous molecules that mitigate any form of oxidative stress or its consequences. They may act from directly scavenging free radicals to increasing anti-oxidative defences. There is evidence that current treatments impact oxidative pathways and may to some extent reverse pro-oxidative states in schizophrenia. The existing literature, however, indicates that these treatments do not fully restore the deficits in antioxidant levels or restore levels of oxidants in schizophrenia. As such, there has been interest in developing interventions aimed at restoring this oxidative balance beyond the benefits of antipsychotics in this direction. If antioxidants are to have a place in the treatment of this serious condition, the relevant and up-to-date information should be available to clinicians and investigators. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of antioxidants as add-on treatments to standard antipsychotic medication for improving acute psychotic episodes and core symptoms, and preventing relapse in people with schizophrenia. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Study-Based Register of Trials which is based on regular searches of CINAHL, BIOSIS, AMED, Embase, PubMed, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and registries of clinical trials. There are no language, time, document type, or publication status limitations for inclusion of records in the register. We ran this search in November 2010, and again on 8 January 2015. We also inspected references of all identified studies for further trials and contacted authors of trials for additional information. Selection criteria: We included reports if they were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving people with schizophrenia who had been allocated to either a substance with antioxidant potential or to a placebo as an adjunct to standard antipsychotic treatment. Data collection and analysis: We independently extracted data from these trials and we estimated risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We assessed risk of bias for included studies and created a 'Summary of findings' table using GRADE. Main results: The review includes 22 RCTs of varying quality and sample size studying Ginkgo biloba, N-acetyl cysteine (NAC), allopurinol, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), vitamin C, vitamin E or selegiline. Median follow-up was eight weeks. Only three studies including a minority of the participants reported our a priori selected primary outcome of clinically important response. Short-term data for this outcome (measured as at least 20% improvement in scores on Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS)) were similar (3 RCTs, n = 229, RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.12, low quality evidence). Studies usually reported only endpoint psychopathology rating scale scores. Psychotic symptoms were lower in those using an adjunctive antioxidant according to the PANSS ( 7 RCTS, n = 584, MD -6.00, 95% CI -10.35 to -1.65, very low quality evidence) and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (8 RCTS, n = 843, MD -3.20, 95% CI -5.63 to -0.78, low quality evidence). There was no overall short-term difference in leaving the study early (16 RCTs, n = 1584, RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.11, moderate quality evidence), or in general functioning (2 RCTs, n = 52, MD -1.11, 95% CI -8.07 to 5.86, low quality evidence). Adverse events were generally poorly reported. Three studies reported useable data for 'any serious adverse effect', results were equivocal (3 RCTs, n = 234, RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.19 to 2.27, low quality evidence). No evidence was available for relapse, quality of life or service use. Authors' conclusions: Although 22 trials could be included in this review, the evidence provided is limited and mostly not relevant to clinicians or consumers. Overall, although there was low risk of attrition and selective data reporting bias within the trials, the trials themselves were not adequately powered and need more substantial follow-up periods. There is a need for larger trials with longer periods of follow-up to be conducted. Outcomes should be meaningful for those with schizophrenia, and include measures of improvement and relapse (not just rating scale scores), functioning and quality of life and acceptability and, importantly, safety data.

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BACKGROUND: Literature suggests an ongoing gender disparity in the use of coronary angiography and subsequent interventions among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to examine gender differences in the use of coronary interventions amongst patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admitted to a major metropolitan hospital in Melbourne during the period 2009-2012. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective analysis of a hospital database of 2096 ACS patients. ACS included unstable angina (UA), ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI). RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 64.3 years and 624 (30%) were women. Half of them were diagnosed as NSTEMI, 23% as STEMI and 25% as UA. Compared to men, women were older at admission, less likely to be diagnosed with STEMI and less likely to smoke. No gender difference was observed for severe co-morbidities or use of coronary angiography. Women diagnosed with STEMI were 39% less likely to receive an angioplasty stent (adjusted odds ratio 0.61, 95% confidence intervals 0.39-0.96) and 66% less likely to receive grafts (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CIs 0.13-0.93). Women diagnosed with NSTEMI were 44% less likely to receive grafts (adjusted OR 0.56, 95% CIs 0.37-0.83). Younger women aged 35-49 years were less likely to receive an angioplasty stent, and older women >50 years were less likely to receive grafts. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to guideline based treatment will help to ensure knowledge translation from guideline to practice. Further research investigating symptom presentation, use of non-invasive tests and medical management of ACS by gender may further explain gender difference for coronary interventions.

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BACKGROUND: In epidemiological studies, statins appear to benefit mood, and there are now some randomized controlled trials examining the efficacy of statins. However, the role of statins in depression remains uncertain. Thus the aim of this paper was to assess the effect of statins on depressive symptoms by performing a meta-analysis of all double-blind, randomized, placebo controlled clinical trials (RCT) conducted in subjects with depression. METHODS: A systematic search was executed using PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov in November 30th, 2015 for all double-blind, RCT of statins versus placebo in persons with depressive symptoms. Sixty-seven potential articles were identified through search of electronic databases, of those three met inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The outcome measure was change in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) scores associated with statin use. A meta-analysis was conducted and standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. GRADE was used to assess study quality. RESULTS: The three articles included provided data on 165 participants with moderate to severe depression. Of these, 82 were randomized to statins as an adjuvant therapy to antidepressant treatment (i.e., citalopram or fluoxetine) and 83 to the placebo arm. All studies were double-blind RCTs, with a follow-up of 6-12 weeks. The statin agents evaluated were lovastatin, atorvastatin, and simvastatin. When compared to placebo, statins, as add-on to treatment as usual, largely improved depressive symptoms as assessed by the HDRS (SMD=-0.73, 95% IC -1.04 to -0.42, p<0.001, 3 between-group comparisons, n=165). No serious adverse effects were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that adjunctive treatment with statins could be useful for the treatment of depressive symptoms. Additional double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trials are necessary to settle the matter.

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Objectives: This paper aims to describe the epidemiology of suicide among males employed in driving occupations (road and rail) compared to other male occupations in Australia. Methods: Suicide cases among road and rail drivers were extracted from a national dataset of occupationally coded suicide cases for the period 2001 to 2010. Suicide rates per 100 000 were calculated and standardised using the Australian standard population (2001). Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Mantell Haenszel rates and compared to all employed suicide cases. Results: The majority of suicides in this occupational category occurred in truck drivers, followed by road and rail drivers. 98% of these suicides were among males; hence only males were included in further analyses. The age-standardised rate of male suicide among Road and Rail drivers over the period 2001 to 2010 was 22.6 per 100 000 (95% CI 19.2 to 25.9). The IRR of suicide in this occupational group compared to other male occupations was 1.42 (95% CI 1.26 to1.60). Conclusions: Suicide among Road and Rail drivers is higher than in the other male occupations. Suicide prevention initiatives addressing these risk factors, while also providing access to treatment for those at risk, are clearly needed.

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OBJECTIVES: To systematically review cost of illness studies for schizophrenia (SC), epilepsy (EP) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and explore the transferability of direct medical cost across countries.

METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed to yield studies that estimated direct medical costs. A generalized linear model (GLM) with gamma distribution and log link was utilized to explore the variation in costs that accounted by the included factors. Both parametric (Random-effects model) and non-parametric (Boot-strapping) meta-analyses were performed to pool the converted raw cost data (expressed as percentage of GDP/capita of the country where the study was conducted).

RESULTS: In total, 93 articles were included (40 studies were for T2DM, 34 studies for EP and 19 studies for SC). Significant variances were detected inter- and intra-disease classes for the direct medical costs. Multivariate analysis identified that GDP/capita (p<0.05) was a significant factor contributing to the large variance in the cost results. Bootstrapping meta-analysis generated more conservative estimations with slightly wider 95% confidence intervals (CI) than the parametric meta-analysis, yielding a mean (95%CI) of 16.43% (11.32, 21.54) for T2DM, 36.17% (22.34, 50.00) for SC and 10.49% (7.86, 13.41) for EP.

CONCLUSIONS: Converting the raw cost data into percentage of GDP/capita of individual country was demonstrated to be a feasible approach to transfer the direct medical cost across countries. The approach from our study to obtain an estimated direct cost value along with the size of specific disease population from each jurisdiction could be used for a quick check on the economic burden of particular disease for countries without such data.

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BACKGROUND: Observational studies examining associations between hypertension and cancer are inconsistent. We explored the association of hypertension, graded hypertension and antihypertensive treatment with cancer incidence and mortality. METHOD: Eighty-six thousand five hundred and ninety-three participants from the Australian and New Zealand Diabetes and Cancer Collaboration were linked to the National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association of treated and untreated hypertension with cancer incidence and mortality. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 15.1 years, 12 070 incident and 4350 fatal cancers were identified. Untreated and treated hypertension, compared with normotension, were associated with an increased risk for cancer incidence [hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI (1.00-1.11) and 1.09 (1.02-1.16) respectively], and cancer mortality (1.07, 0.98-1.18) and (1.15, 1.03-1.28), respectively. When compared with untreated hypertension, treated hypertension did not have a significantly greater risk for cancer incidence (1.03, 0.97-1.10) or mortality (1.07, 0.97-1.19). A significant dose-response relationship was observed between graded hypertension and cancer incidence and mortality; Ptrend = 0.053 and Ptrend = 0.001, respectively. When stratified by treatment status, these relationships remained significant in untreated, but not in treated, hypertension. CONCLUSION: Hypertension, both treated and untreated, is associated with a modest increased risk for cancer incidence and mortality. Similar risks in treated and untreated hypertension suggest that the increased cancer risk is not explained by the use of antihypertensive treatment.

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This study challenges two core conventional meta-analysis methods: fixed effect and random effects. We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares estimator is superior to conventional random-effects meta-analysis when there is publication (or small-sample) bias and better than a fixed-effect weighted average if there is heterogeneity. Statistical theory and simulations of effect sizes, log odds ratios and regression coefficients demonstrate that this unrestricted weighted least squares estimator provides satisfactory estimates and confidence intervals that are comparable to random effects when there is no publication (or small-sample) bias and identical to fixed-effect meta-analysis when there is no heterogeneity. When there is publication selection bias, the unrestricted weighted least squares approach dominates random effects; when there is excess heterogeneity, it is clearly superior to fixed-effect meta-analysis. In practical applications, an unrestricted weighted least squares weighted average will often provide superior estimates to both conventional fixed and random effects.

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BACKGROUND: Peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) are a common vascular access device used in clinical practice. Their use may be complicated by adverse events such as venous thromboembolism (VTE). The size of the vein used for PICC insertion and thus the catheter to vein ratio is thought to be a controllable factor in the reduction of VTE rates in patients who have a PICC. However, an optimal catheter to vein ratio for PICC insertion has not previously been investigated to inform clinical practice. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of the catheter to vein ratio (proportion of the vein measured at the insertion point taken up by the catheter) on rates of symptomatic VTE in patients with a PICC and identify the optimal ratio cut-off point to reduce rates of this adverse event. METHOD: Adult patients waiting for PICC insertion at a large metropolitan teaching hospital were recruited between May and December 2013. Vein diameter at the PICC insertion site was measured using ultrasound with in-built callipers. Participants were followed up at eight weeks to determine if they developed symptomatic VTE. RESULTS: Data were available for 136 patients (50% cancer; 44% infection; 6% other indication for PICC). Mean age was 57 years with 54% males. There were four cases of confirmed symptomatic VTE (two involving the deep veins, one peripheral vein and one pulmonary embolism). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis determined that a 45% catheter to vein ratio was the ideal cut off point to maximise sensitivity and specificity (AUC 0.761; 95% CI 0.681-0.830). When a ratio of 46% or above was compared to one that was less than or equal to 45% using a log binomial generalised linear model it was found that participants with a catheter to vein ratio >45% were 13 times more likely to suffer VTE (relative risk 13, p=0.022; CI 1.445-122.788). CONCLUSION: It was found that a 45% catheter to vein ratio was the optimal cut off with high sensitivity and specificity to reduce the risk of VTE. However, further research is needed to confirm these results as although adequately powered; the number of cases of VTE was comparatively small, resulting in wide confidence intervals.

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The bootstrap method is one of the most widely used methods in literature for construction of confidence and prediction intervals. This paper proposes a new method for improving the quality of bootstrap-based prediction intervals. The core of the proposed method is a prediction interval-based cost function, which is used for training neural networks. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the cost function and neural network parameter adjustment. The developed neural networks are then used for estimation of the target variance. Through experiments and simulations it is shown that the proposed method can be used to construct better quality bootstrap-based prediction intervals. The optimized prediction intervals have narrower widths with a greater coverage probability compared to traditional bootstrap-based prediction intervals.

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Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

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This brief proposes an efficient technique for the construction of optimized prediction intervals (PIs) by using the bootstrap technique. The method employs an innovative PI-based cost function in the training of neural networks (NNs) used for estimation of the target variance in the bootstrap method. An optimization algorithm is developed for minimization of the cost function and adjustment of NN parameters. The performance of the optimized bootstrap method is examined for seven synthetic and real-world case studies. It is shown that application of the proposed method improves the quality of constructed PIs by more than 28% over the existing technique, leading to narrower PIs with a coverage probability greater than the nominal confidence level.