Why do Australians, New Zealanders and Americans travel to Fiji? Evidence from cointegration, unit roots and parameter stability tests

The aim of this study was to estimate the demand for Fiji’s tourism from its three main source markets—Australia, New Zealand, and the US—using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Our main finding was that visitor arrivals to Fiji and its key determinants are cointegrated over the 1970–2000 period. We then used the autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate short-run and long-run elasticities and found that income in origin countries, transport costs, and prices were significant determinants of Fiji’s tourism demand. We also found that coups negatively impact visitor arrivals from all markets. In testing for parameter stability, we established that the series were integrated of order one in the presence of a structural break. We then used the Hansen test for parameter stability and found that the parameters of our long-run model are stable over time.

The saving and investment nexus for China : evidence from cointegration tests

The saving and investment nexus as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka (FH) (1980) is revisited. The saving investment correlation for China is estimated over the periods 1952-1998 and 1952-1994, the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime. Amongst the key results, it is found that saving and investment are correlated for China for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period. With high saving-investment correlation, the results suggest that the Chinese economy is in conformity with the FH hypothesis. This is a valid outcome, for in China capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952-1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment.

The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji : evidence from unit root structural break tests

The central aim of this paper is to investigate whether shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a permanent effect or a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji. To accomplish this aim the Zivot and Andrews (1992) one break test and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two break tests are used. The one break and two break tests reveal 1987 - the year of the military coups in Fiji - as the year of the break. Moreover, it is possible to reject the unit root null leading to the conclusion that shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji.

Attendance and pricing at sporting events : empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup

This study applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between attendance, admission prices and real income at the Melbourne Cup, which is Australia's premier horseracing event and one of the world's leading handicap races. The motivation for the paper is that while market demand suggests that causation should run from admission price to attendance, it is equally plausible that sporting authorities could alter admission prices in response to a change in demand reflected in attendance. The main findings are that in the short-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from income to attendance, attendance to admission price and income to admission price, while in the long run both admission price and income Granger cause attendance.

Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.

Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

This paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia within a cointegration and causality framework. We find that electricity consumption, employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long-run employment and real income Granger cause electricity consumption, while in the short run there is weak unidirectional Granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment.

Reconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndrome

The human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV–AIDS) epidemic in Hong Kong has been under surveillance in the form of voluntary reporting since 1984. However, there has been little discussion or research on the reconstruction of the HIV incidence curve. This paper is the first to use a modified back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV in Hong Kong on the basis of the number of positive HIV tests only. The model proposed has several advantages over the original back-projection method based on AIDS data only. First, not all HIV-infected individuals will develop AIDS by the time of analysis, but some of them may undertake an HIV test; therefore, the HIV data set contains more information than the AIDS data set. Second, the HIV diagnosis curve usually has a smoother pattern than the AIDS diagnosis curve, as it is not affected by redefinition of AIDS. Third, the time to positive HIV diagnosis is unlikely to be affected by treatment effects, as it is unlikely that an individual receives medication before the diagnosis of HIV. Fourth, the induction period from HIV infection to the first HIV positive test is usually shorter than the incubation period which is from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS. With a shorter induction period, more information becomes available for estimating the HIV incidence curve. Finally, this method requires the number of positive HIV diagnoses only, which is readily available from HIV–AIDS surveillance systems in many countries. It is estimated that, in Hong Kong, the cumulative number of HIV infections during the period 1979–2000 is about 2600, whereas an estimate based only on AIDS data seems to give an underestimate.

Many-sample location and scale tests with quantile-function error distributions /by Azmeri Khan

This thesis, using a computer simulation, studies the effect of the normal distribution assumption on the power of several many-sample location and scale test procedures. It also suggests an almost robust parametric test, namely numerical likelihood ratio test (NLRT) for non-normal situations. The NLRT is found better than all of the tests considered. Some real life data sets were used as examples.

Perceived neighborhood environment and park use as mediators of the effect of area socio-economic status on walking behaviors

Background: Access to local parks can affect walking levels. Neighborhood environment and park use may influence relationships between neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and walking.

Methods: Self-report data on perceived park features, neighborhood environment, park use, neighborhood walking and sociodemographics
were obtained from a sample of Australian adults, living in high/low SES areas. Surveys were mailed to 250 randomly selected households within 500m of 12 matched parks. Mediating effects of perceived environment attributes and park use on relationships between area-SES and walking were examined.

Results: Mean frequency of local park use was higher for high-SES residents (4.36 vs 3.16 times/wk, P < .01), who also reported higher levels of park safety, maintenance, attractiveness, opportunities for socialization, and neighborhood crime safety, aesthetics, and traffic safety. Safety and opportunity for socialization were independently positively related to monthly frequency of visits to a local park which, in turn, was positively associated with walking for recreation and total walking. Residents of higher SES areas reported an average 22% (95% CI: 5%, 37%) more weekly minutes of recreational walking than their low SES counterparts.

Conclusion: Residents of high-SES areas live in environments that promote park use, which positively contributes to their weekly amounts of overall and recreational walking.

Relationships of land use mix with walking for transport : do land uses and geographical scale matter?

Physical activity and public health recommendations now emphasize the creation of activity-friendly neighborhoods. Mixed land use in a neighborhood is important in this regard, as it reflects the availability of destinations to which residents can walk or ride bicycles, and thus is likely to contribute to residents’ active lifestyles that in turn will influence their overall health. Relationships between land use mix (LUM) and physical activity have not been apparent in some studies, which may be because geographical scale and the specificity of hypothesized environment–behavior associations are not taken into account. We compared the strength of association of four Geographic Information Systems-derived LUM measures with walking for transport and perceived proximity to destinations. We assessed physical activity behaviors of 2,506 adults in 154 Census Collection Districts (CCDs) in Adelaide, Australia, for which ‘‘original’’ LUM measures were calculated, and then refined by either: accounting for the geographic scale of measurement; including only the most-relevant land uses; or, both. The refined (but not the ‘‘original’’) LUM measures had significant associations with the frequency of walking for transport (p < 0.05) and area-corrected measures had significant associations with the duration of walking for transport. All LUM measures had significant associations with perceived proximity to destinations, but stronger associations were seen when using the refined measures compared with the original LUM. Identifying the LUM attributes most strongly associated with walking for transport is a priority and can inform environmental and policy initiatives that are needed to promote health-enhancing physical activity.

Dog ownership, dog walking and children's and parents' physical activity

This study aimed to determine cross-sectional associations of dog ownership, dog walking, and physical activity (PA) among children and their parents. Objective measures of PA were obtained for children ages 5-6 and 10-12 years from 19 primary schools across Melbourne, Australia. Parents self-reported their PA, dog ownership, and frequency of dog walking: 53% of families owned a dog, 41% of children who owned a dog did not walk their dog at all, and 32% reported never or rarely walking their dog as a family. Dog ownership was associated with an additional 29 min/day in PA among younger girls, and 70 and 59 min/week more in PA among mothers of younger boys and older girls, respectively. Among mothers of older girls, dog owners were 1.6 times as likely to meet PA guidelines. Mothers with older boys and girls, and fathers with younger boys, who reported walking the dog regularly as a family, spent more time in PA (105, 90, and 158 more min/week, respectively). Promoting dog ownership and dog walking among children and as a family are potential strategies for increasing PA participation in some families.