Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, commonly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management attributable to the public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of the risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics can be related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, uncertainty factors have been grouped into Institutional, Social and industrial, Economic, and Project-specific categories and examined in order to achieve efficient risk allocation and minimize risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors for the allocation of three major risks have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. These identified critical uncertainty factors are expected to help decision-makers from both public and private sectors choose efficient allocation strategies for major risks. Future research directions are also set out.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient allocation of demand risk in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Among the various risks that may eventually materialise, demand risk is one of the major challenges that PPPs face. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management responsibility between public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics are more or less related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, various uncertainty factors have been examined in order to achieve efficient allocation of demand risk and minimise risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. Future research directions are also set out.

Exploring potential success factors for procurement of privately financed infrastructure

Australia has joined many governments to adopt public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, failures have occurred although the market has been considered to be a mature and sophisticated one. Failures have typically been traced back to inappropriate economic evaluation and a lack of value-for-money. In particular, a literature review has identified that there was no holistic consideration on the evaluation of procurement transactions of PPP projects. The transaction costs of PPPs were not handled properly. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics are proposed for the purpose of such a holistic institutional economic evaluation. These theories are analysed in order to identify potential critical success factors for a strategic infrastructure procurement framework. The potential critical success factors are identified and grouped into a number of categories that match the theories of transaction cost economics. These categories include (1) Asset Specificity, (2) Organizational Capability, (3) Transaction Frequency, (4) Behavioural Uncertainty, and (5) Environmental Uncertainty. These potential critical success factors may be subject to an empirical test in the future. The proposed framework will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

Risk and trust management for online distributed system

This thesis investigated the problem of strategic manipulation of feedback attacks and proposed an approach that makes trust management systems sufficiently robust against feedback manipulation attacks. The new trust management system enables potential service consumers to determine the risk level of a service before committing to proceed with the transaction.

Direct versus search engine traffic : an innovative approach to demand analysis in the property market

Purpose – The application of “Google” econometrics (Geco) has evolved rapidly in recent years and can be applied in various fields of research. Based on accepted theories in existing economic literature, this paper seeks to contribute to the innovative use of research on Google search query data to provide a new innovative to property research.

Design/methodology/approach – In this study, existing data from Google Insights for Search (GI4S) is extended into a new potential source of consumer sentiment data based on visits to a commonly-used UK online real-estate agent platform (Rightmove.co.uk). In order to contribute to knowledge about the use of Geco's black box, namely the unknown sampling population and the specific search queries influencing the variables, the GI4S series are compared to direct web navigation.

Findings – The main finding from this study is that GI4S data produce immediate real-time results with a high level of reliability in explaining the future volume of transactions and house prices in comparison to the direct website data. Furthermore, the results reveal that the number of visits to Rightmove.co.uk is driven by GI4S data and vice versa, and indeed without a contemporaneous relationship.

Originality/value – This study contributes to the new emerging and innovative field of research involving search engine data. It also contributes to the knowledge base about the increasing use of online consumer data in economic research in property markets.

My place: exploring children's place-related identities through reading and writing

This paper considers how children perceive and represent their placed-related identities through reading and writing. It reports on the findings of an 18-month interdisciplinary project, based at Cambridge University Faculty of Education, which aimed to consider children’s place-related identities through their engage- ment with, and creation of, texts. This paper will discuss the project, its interdisciplinary theoretical framework, and the empirical research we conducted with two classes in primary schools in Eastern England. A key text used in our research was My Place by Nadia Wheatley and Donna Rawlins. Drawing on our interdisciplinary theoretical framework, particularly Doreen Massey’s notion of place as a bundle of trajectories, and Louise Rosenblatt’s notion of the transaction between the reader and the text, this paper will examine pages from My Place, children talking about how this text connects with them, children talking about their sense of place, and maps and writing the children produced based on their place.

E-commerce trust management system reliability

Various solutions have been proposed in managing trust relationship between trading partners in eCommerce environment. Determine the reliability of trust management systems in eCommerce is most difficult issue due to highly dynamic nature of eCommerce environments. As trust management systems depend on the feedback ratings provided by the trading partners, they are fallible to strategic manipulation of the feedback ratings attacks. This paper addressed the challenges of trust management systems. The requirements of a reliable trust management are also discussed. In particular, we introduce an adaptive credibility model that distinguishes between credible feedback ratings and malicious feedback ratings by considering transaction size, frequency of ratings and majority vote to form a feedback ratings verification metric. The approach has been validated by simulation result.

Thai hedging practices post-Asian financial crisis

This paper provides survey evidence captured from a sample of 113 respondents to a 2008 questionnaire sent to 344 companies in Thailand. The study examines Thai hedging practices following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Thai companies, like their international counterparts, rely predominantly on matching and forward contracts to hedge transaction exposure. Thai companies, however, appear to be less rigorous when it comes to internal control and supervision of derivative activity. It is recommended that Thai companies improve their risk management practices by putting into place a documented hedging policy, which includes a requirement that senior staff be actively engaged in the risk management activities of the firm.

ShopSmart 4 Health - protocol of a skills-based randomised controlled trial promoting fruit and vegetable consumption among socioeconomically disadvantaged women

Background
There is a need for evidence on the most effective and cost-effective approaches for promoting healthy eating among groups that do not meet dietary recommendations for good health, such as those with low incomes or experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage. This paper describes the ShopSmart 4 Health study, a randomised controlled trial conducted by Deakin University, Coles Supermarkets and the Heart Foundation, to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a skill-building intervention for promoting increased purchasing and consumption of fruits and vegetables amongst women of low socioeconomic position (SEP).

Methods/design
ShopSmart 4 Health employed a randomised controlled trial design. Women aged 18–60 years, holding a Coles store loyalty card, who shopped at Coles stores within socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods and met low-income eligibility criteria were invited to participate. Consenting women completed a baseline survey assessing food shopping and eating habits and food-related behaviours and attitudes. On receipt of their completed survey, women were randomised to either a skill-building intervention or a wait-list control condition. Intervention effects will be evaluated via self-completion surveys and using supermarket transaction sales data, collected at pre- and post-intervention and 6-month follow-up. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective using a cost-consequences approach will compare the costs and outcomes between intervention and control groups. Process evaluation will be undertaken to identify perceived value and effects of intervention components.

Discussion
This study will provide data to address the currently limited evidence base regarding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of skill-building intervention strategies aimed at increasing fruit and vegetable consumption among socioeconomically disadvantaged women, a target group at high risk of poor diets.

The collaborative economy: a disruptive innovation or much ado about nothing?

An economy based on the exchange of capital, assets and services between individuals has grown significantly, spurred by proliferation of internet-based platforms that allow people to share underutilized resources and trade with reasonably low transaction costs. The movement toward this economy of “sharing” translates into market efficiencies that bear new products, reframe established services, have positive environmental effects, and may generate overall economic growth. This emerging paradigm, entitled the collaborative economy, is disruptive to the conventional company-driven economic paradigm as evidenced by the large number of peer-to-peer based services that have captured impressive market shares sectors ranging from transportation and hospitality to banking and risk capital. The panel explores economic, social, and technological implications of the collaborative economy, how digital technologies enable it, and how the massive sociotechnical systems embodied in these new peer platforms may evolve in response to the market and social forces that drive this emerging ecosystem.

Non-tradable share reform, liquidity, and stock returns in China

This article studies the influence of the non-tradable share reform in the cross-section of stock returns in China. Prior research has generally neglected this important development in the Chinese stock market. We find that the firm-specific illiquidity measures that reflect direct transaction costs, price impact and difficulties in trading immediacy, exhibit a positive and significant relationship with stock returns. These effects are particularly pronounced after the non-tradable share reform. Furthermore, in the post-reform era, portfolios with high illiquidity (i.e. high relative bid-ask spread, high Amihud illiquidity, low Amivest liquidity ratio) significantly outperform portfolios with low illiquidity, controlling for size, and book-to-market effects.

Influence of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: outcomes of the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Fiscal strategies are increasingly considered upstream nutrition promotion measures. However, few trials have investigated the effectiveness or cost effectiveness of pricing manipulations on diet in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effects on fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchasing and consumption of a 20% price-reduction intervention, a tailored skills-based behavior-change intervention, and a combined intervention compared with a control condition. DESIGN: The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was a randomized controlled trial conducted over 3 mo [baseline (time 1) to postintervention (time 2) with a 6-mo follow-up (time 3)]. Female primary household shoppers in Melbourne, Australia, were randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price-reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price-reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Supermarket transaction data and surveys were used to measure the following study outcomes: fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchases and self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption at each time point. RESULTS: At 3 mo (time 2), price reduction-alone participants purchased more total vegetables and frozen vegetables than did controls. Price reduction-alone and price reduction-plus-skill-building participants purchased more fruit than did controls. Relative to controls, in the price-reduction group, total vegetable consumption increased by 233 g/wk (3.1 servings or 15% more than at baseline), and fruit purchases increased by 364 g/wk (2.4 servings; 35% more than at baseline). Increases were not maintained 6 mo postintervention (time 3). Price reduction-alone participants showed a tendency for a slight increase in fruit consumption at time 2 (P = 0.09) that was maintained at time 3 (P = 0.014). No intervention improved purchases of bottled water or low-calorie beverages. CONCLUSIONS: A 20% price reduction in fruit and vegetables resulted in increased purchasing per household of 35% for fruit and 15% for vegetables over the price-reduction period. These findings show that price modifications can directly increase produce purchases. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials Registration as ISRCTN39432901.

Mining allocating patterns in one-sum weighted items

An Association Rule (AR) is a common knowledge model in data mining that describes an implicative cooccurring relationship between two disjoint sets of binary-valued transaction database attributes (items), expressed in the form of an "antecedent⇒ consequent" rule. A variant of the AR is the Weighted Association Rule (WAR). With regard to a marketing context, this paper introduces a new knowledge model in data mining -ALlocating Pattern (ALP). An ALP is a special form of WAR, where each rule item is associated with a weighting score between 0 and 1, and the sum of all rule item scores is 1. It can not only indicate the implicative co-occurring relationship between two (disjoint) sets of items in a weighted setting, but also inform the "allocating" relationship among rule items. ALPs can be demonstrated to be applicable in marketing and possibly a surprising variety of other areas. We further propose an Apriori based algorithm to extract hidden and interesting ALPs from a "one-sum" weighted transaction database. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. © 2008 IEEE.

Farmland prices, structural breaks and panel data

Previous time series evidence has indicated that farmland prices and cash rents are not cointegrated, a finding at odds with the present value model of farmland prices. We argue that this failure to find cointegration may be due to low power of tests and to the presence of structural change representing a shifting risk premium on farmland investments. To accommodate this possibility, we use panel unit root and cointegration methods that are more powerful than conventional time series methods and allow for breaks in the cointegration relationship. Our results, based on a large panel covering 31 US states between 1960 and 2000, suggest that the present value model of farmland prices cannot be rejected. © Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2007; all rights reserved.