Study of electrical usage and demand at the container terminal

The electrical usage and demand at container terminal were studied for two years. The results provide a technique for calculating the maximum demand at container terminal with a more accurate result, leading to a substantial saving both in capital cost for electrical infrastructure investment and ongoing electricity costs.

The demand for sentence discounts: some empirical evidence

Sentence discounts are now routinely used by Australian courts to encourage guilty pleas. In this article, the authors examine three populations of not on bail defendants who went to trial and were convicted in New South Wales in 2004 for the offences of aggravated robbery, burglary and murder respectively, with the objective of estimating the percentage reduction in sentence quantum that would have induced them to plead guilty. Since conviction (acquittal) probabilities following a trial are likely to be uniformly distributed between 0 and 1, the expected mean probability of conviction (acquittal) for a defendant pleading not guilty was 0.5. The average reductions in the prison sentence corresponding to this probability were: 21%, 23% and 27% respectively. The maximum (minimum) values were: 39% (1.3%), 40% (1.9%) and 39% (1.5%). This range of values reflects the wide dispersion of actual prison sentences handed down by the courts. The distribution of actual sentence discounts offered by the judges in exchange for a guilty plea is not available, consequently the authors cannot comment on why these defendants chose a trial.

Time series analysis of air transportation service quality and travel demand in Japan

The evolution of domestic air travel service in Japan is a product of many factors including airline responses to the changing aviation market, government interventions in terms of regulatory/deregulatory policies, infrastructure investments, and changes in market structure. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the changing quality of passenger airline service and its implications in the domestic aviation market in Japan using qualitative review and a time series analysis of the domestic airline markets from 1986 to 2003. The results show that to meet the ultimate aim of deregulation to increase air passengers’ welfare gain, there is a need to instill measures to correct service imbalance and to create innovative airport demand-capacity management measures.

Expansion of congested railway capacity using triple-track line operation based on hourly passenger demand

This paper proposes a method of improving level of service in congested urban railways by means of a triple-track line operation for a highly dense urban area with special travel demand characteristics. Where the future travel demand forecasts show sluggish growth or no growth at all, there is little to no incentives for heavy railway investments like quadruple-track extension and construction of new railway routes to alleviate current railway congestion problems. In such a situation, triple-track line operation can be the best alternative due to its moderate investment cost and ease in land acquisition for just an additional single track along the existing tracks. Our simulation investigation in one of the congested railway lines in Tokyo showed that triple track line operation increases railway capacity by 26% and shortens travel time by 38% in peak direction during morning peak hours. These results are encouraging and are useful for removing current railways problems in Tokyo and in similar urban situations elsewhere.

Voluntary demand for auditing by farm businesses: an Australian perspective

 This study investigates voluntary demand for auditing by Australian farm businesses, a significant but relatively unexplored segment of the economy. Most farms operate as family partnerships or sole proprietors and we thus focus on incentives to audit arising from internal sources (owner-manager), controlling for traditional incentives arising from external contractual constraints (i.e., debt), organisational characteristics (i.e., size), and agency conflict. We hypothesise that an external audit assists management in enhancing internal control by complementing the process of profit planning and control (budgeting) and that increased family conflict provides an incentive to engage external audit. Of the 457 survey questionnaire respondents, 27% voluntarily engage an external auditor and 66% conduct some formal written planning. Results from logistic regression analyses support the predicted impact of both size and debt on audit, and further support the hypothesised impact of budgeting. The positive association between budgeting and audit confirms the complementary relationship. More importantly, this relationship is not confounded by the combined impact of size and budgeting and debt and budgeting on voluntary audit. In addition, family conflict has no impact on voluntary demand for auditing by farm business.

The impact of trade liberalization on import demand

In this paper, we empirically analyze the effects of trade reforms on import demand and derive their implications on economic development in Turkey, a country that underwent sudden and substantial trade liberalization in the mid-1980s. The tool for this analysis is the estimation of disaggregated import demand elasticities. The adoption of a more liberal trade regime as well as radical attempts to foster economic development makes the Turkish experience particularly interesting for analysis. Almost all of our elasticities are estimated to be significant, unlike those of most previous studies in the literature on other countries. We test for different elasticities over “closed” and “open” economy periods, and find that the effects of the trade reforms of the 1980s were significant for a number of industries that form the backbone of the Turkish economy. We also compare our results with elasticity estimates from past studies for developed countries.

An approach for wind power integration using demand side resources

Renewable energy resources, especially wind power, are expected to provide a considerable portion of the world energy requirements in the near future. Large-scale wind power penetration impacts the electricity industry in many aspects and raises a number of technical challenges for the electricity network. A day-ahead network-constrained market clearing formulation is proposed which considers demand side resources. The proposed approach can provide flexible load profile and reduce the need for ramp up/down services by the conventional generators. This method can potentially facilitate a large penetration of wind power by shifting the wind power generation from the off-peak periods to the high-peak hours. The validity of the proposed approach has been verified using the IEEE 30 bus and 57 bus test systems.

Neural network ensemble : evaluation of aggregation algorithms for electricity demand forecasting

This paper examines and analyzes different aggregation algorithms to improve accuracy of forecasts obtained using neural network (NN) ensembles. These algorithms include equal-weights combination of Best NN models, combination of trimmed forecasts, and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The predictive performance of these algorithms are evaluated using Australian electricity demand data. The output of the aggregation algorithms of NN ensembles are compared with a Naive approach. Mean absolute percentage error is applied as the performance index for assessing the quality of aggregated forecasts. Through comprehensive simulations, it is found that the aggregation algorithms can significantly improve the forecasting accuracies. The BMA algorithm also demonstrates the best performance amongst aggregation algorithms investigated in this study.