Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests

This paper provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis in G7 stock price indices using unit root tests which allow for one and two structural breaks in the trend. Of the seven countries we find, at best, evidence of mean reversion in the stock price index of Japan. Thus, overall, our results support the random walk hypothesis. We also consider the implications of the identified structural breaks for movement in stock prices over time. Our main conclusion from this exercise is that the second break in stock prices has had a detrimental effect on movements in stock prices in the G7 countries.

Talking it up! Project report : Aboriginal voices in the formulation of health policy that works : short report

Initially, there were three separate strands to the work of the project: a series of forums involving group interviews/discussions with community members; a policy analysis that reviewed policies relating to Aboriginal health at federal and state level; and a literature review. The results of these three separate strands of analysis were then brought together in a fourth strand to the work, a process involving community members to discuss and agree the overall recommendations contained in this report.

Through this structure, the project employed a participatory methodology as the basis for individual and collective empowerment in relation to health outcomes. As mentioned above, the need for the project was identified by Aboriginal people, through their own processes of healing. The need was presented by appropriate figures within their communities, namely community elders. They invited other Aboriginal people to take part through their own communication channels, thus ensuring that responsibility for engagement in the project, and in formulating action for improvement, remained with Aboriginal people and their families. However, the project design also recognised that Aboriginal people exist within broader structural and policy constraints which impact on their ability to manage their own lives successfully or otherwise. Thus the project sought to combine indigenous and non-indigenous knowledge through bringing together the three strands of work in the way described.

A Community Reference Group guided the work of the project at all stages, endorsed the findings and drafted the recommendations. The two elders who had identified the need for the project formed the core of the group, and worked on the project from start to finish. At different times during the project, other community members joined the group to assist in its work, including training Aboriginal researchers, letting others know about the forums, discussing findings and drafting recommendations.

Talking it up! Project report : Aboriginal voices in the formulation of health policy that works : full report

Initially, there were three separate strands to the work of the project: a series of forums involving group interviews/discussions with community members; a policy analysis that reviewed policies relating to Aboriginal health at federal and state level; and a literature review. The results of these three separate strands of analysis were then brought together in a fourth strand to the work, a process involving community members to discuss and agree the overall recommendations contained in this report.

Through this structure, the project employed a participatory methodology as the basis for individual and collective empowerment in relation to health outcomes. As mentioned above, the need for the project was identified by Aboriginal people, through their own processes of healing. The need was presented by appropriate figures within their communities, namely community elders. They invited other Aboriginal people to take part through their own communication channels, thus ensuring that responsibility for engagement in the project, and in formulating action for improvement, remained with Aboriginal people and their families. However, the project design also recognised that Aboriginal people exist within broader structural and policy constraints which impact on their ability to manage their own lives successfully or otherwise. Thus the project sought to combine indigenous and non-indigenous knowledge through bringing together the three strands of work in the way described.

A Community Reference Group guided the work of the project at all stages, endorsed the findings and drafted the recommendations. The two elders who had identified the need for the project formed the core of the group, and worked on the project from start to finish. At different times during the project, other community members joined the group to assist in its work, including training Aboriginal researchers, letting others know about the forums, discussing findings and drafting recommendations.
Initially, there were three separate strands to the work of the project: a series of forums involving group interviews/discussions with community members; a policy analysis that reviewed policies relating to Aboriginal health at federal and state level; and a literature review. The results of these three separate strands of analysis were then brought together in a fourth strand to the work, a process involving community members to discuss and agree the overall recommendations contained in this report.

Through this structure, the project employed a participatory methodology as the basis for individual and collective empowerment in relation to health outcomes. As mentioned above, the need for the project was identified by Aboriginal people, through their own processes of healing. The need was presented by appropriate figures within their communities, namely community elders. They invited other Aboriginal people to take part through their own communication channels, thus ensuring that responsibility for engagement in the project, and in formulating action for improvement, remained with Aboriginal people and their families. However, the project design also recognised that Aboriginal people exist within broader structural and policy constraints which impact on their ability to manage their own lives successfully or otherwise. Thus the project sought to combine indigenous and non-indigenous knowledge through bringing together the three strands of work in the way described.

Structural breaks and unit roots in Australian macroeconomic time series

We examine the unit root properties of 16 Australian macroeconomic time series using monthly data spanning the period 1960–2004. In addition to the standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, we implement one- and two-break endogenous structural break ADF-type unit root tests as well as one- and two-break Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests. While the ADF test provides relatively little evidence against the unit root null hypothesis, once we allow for structural breaks we are able to reject the unit root null for just under half of the variables at the 10% level or better.

A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks

This paper develops a very simple test for the null hypothesis of no cointegration in panel data. The test is general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, unit-specific time trends, cross-sectional dependence and unknown structural breaks in both the intercept and slope of the cointegrated regression, which may be located at different dates for different units. The limiting distribution of the test is derived, and is found to be normal and free of nuisance parameters under the null. A small simulation study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the test. In our empirical application, we provide new evidence concerning the purchasing power parity hypothesis. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2008.

Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The care crunch: changing work, families and welfare in Australia

Structural shifts in labour markets and in households are impacting on the capacity of households and families to deal with risk. In Australia the post-Federation and post-war social settlement, based on the gendered assumptions underpinning the male breadwinner/female carer model, is no longer viable in an era of increasingly precarious employment, diverse family forms and deepening inequalities. Labour market and industrial relations changes, when combined with major demographic shifts such as divorce and population ageing, and increasing expectations for community care are contributing to a 'care crunch'. The article canvasses the challenge of developing a social risk protection framework that balances caring, work and quality of life.

Getting below the surface of the principal recruitment 'crisis' in New Zealand primary schools

Since 1989 in New Zealand, the work of the primary school principal has been transformed in official policy texts from that of leading professional to chief executive officer. Surveys document the changing nature of the role and the workload and other pressures that have resulted, particularly for principals with teaching responsibilities in smaller schools. There is a generally accepted crisis of preparation, recruitment, development and retention. Below the surface, however, are deeper-seated, structural difficulties: women comprise the majority of teachers, yet are a minority of principals and their career advancement is largely limited to small schools and those in poorer socioeconomic areas. This article reviews the situation and examines the reasons why dominant images of the primary school principalship may be both partial and counterproductive.

Structural effects and spillovers in HSIF, HSI and S & P500 volatility

We adopt a BEKK-GARCH framework and employ a systematic approach to jointly examine structural breaks in the Hong Kong cash index and index futures volatility and volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 cash and futures. Multiple switching dummy variables are included in the variance equations to test for any structural changes in the autoregressive volatility structure due to the events that have taken place in the Hong Kong market. Abolishment of the up-tick rule, increase of initial margins and electronic trading of the Hang Seng Index Futures (HSIF) are found to have significant impact when US market spillovers are excluded from a restricted model. Volatility spillovers from the US market are found to have a significant impact and account for some mis-specification in the restricted model.

Restructuring educational leadership in changing contexts: a local/global account of restructuring in Australia

The 1990s saw considerable structural reform in school education in many Anglophone nation states, marked by trends towards school-based, site-based, self-managing and self-governing schools. This article illustrates through a case study of educational restructuring in Victoria, Australia, how leadership, as a discursive practice, is redefined in the context of spatial and cultural restructuring. Restructuring produced a spatial redistribution of educational provision and individual opportunities as a result of structural adjustment reforms. These same policy moves towards post-welfarism also produced cultural shifts in attitudes to education with the rise of the new instrumentalism and entrepeneurialism. For school principals at the forefront of self managing schools, this meant shifts in resource distribution through new policy mechanisms of managerial and market accountability, and also new priorities impacting on leadership practices with a move from dialogic to decisional modes of management. The question is how recent policy moves towards learning networks and reinventing systematic support with a focus on locational disadvantage are addressing what were increased educational disparities between schools and students. Does this provide scope for more equity-driven leadership practices?

Community language programs in Australian schools: policy at the crossroads

The linguistic situation in Australia today presents an intriguing case for sociolinguistic inquiries. Despite the recent waves of migration from non Anglo-Celtic regions, the majority of Australians today are primarily monolingual with English being the dominant language. More critical, perhaps, is the diminishing appeal of second language learning even among second generation speakers of the large ethnic communities. This is indeed ironic giving that prior to white settlement in Australia, the Aboriginal inhabitants were predominantly multilingual with more than 250 languages (and many of their dialects) spoken by the 300 000 original inhabitants at the time when Captain James Cook's ship reached Botany Bay in Sydney in 1770. Given the size of the post-War migration, it was not until 1987 that the Australian government adopted a formal national policy on languages becoming 'the first English-speaking country to have such a policy and the first in the world to have a multilingual languages policy' (Australian Alliance for Languages 2001: 2). This paper will discuss the historical context for multilingualism in Australia and the current trend in government policy and funding. It will provide insights into community language programs and the challenges of remaining viable and relevant in the current social and political climate. Statistical analyses will be used to highlight emerging trends and future prospects.

A structural events approach to examining long-term change in the Australian trade union movement, 1969-1996

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity, in constructing explanations of change. This paper argues that our understanding of structural change in the Australian trade union movement would be better served by a structural events approach that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, it outlines how these structural events can be identified and measured, and presents the preliminary findings from the methods application.

The Australian Association of Social Workers and social policy debates: a strategy for the future?

It has been argued that the Australian Association of Social Workers (AASW) not only has a mandate, but also an important role to play in influencing social debates for the benefit of the users of social services and, further, that as a professional association, it is ideally positioned to do so. However, the AASW has been criticised for failing to meet this mandate and have any lasting impact on the formulation of social policy. In the present article, the author considers the process by which the AASW engages in social policy debates and speculates on the historical, cultural, and structural factors that may impede its ability to do so. From this analysis, strategies are suggested for the AASW to increase its impact on the formulation of social policy.

Local health policy development processes in the Netherlands: an expanded toolbox for health promotion

Although much research has been done on the existence and formation of risk and issue based health policies, there is only little insight in health policy development processes in a broader context. This hampers intervention in these policy processes to adequately develop integrated and effective health policies.

Legislation in the Netherlands requires municipalities to develop and implement local health policies. These policies are supposed to aim at the promotion of health across sectors and with a strong community involvement. Health policy development processes have been studied in four Dutch municipalities. For each case, we identified a range of stakeholders and monitored the change or stability of their characteristics over 3 years. In addition, for each case, three overlaying maps of networks were made addressing communication and collaboration actions within the defined set of stakeholders. We point out a number of barriers which impede integrated policy development at the local level: the importance given to local health policy, the medical approach to health development, the organizational self-interest rather than public health concern, the absence of policy entrepreneurial activity.

Furthermore, this article advocates the use of complementary theoretical frameworks and the expansion of the methodological toolbox for health promotion. The value of stakeholder and network analysis in the health promotion domain, at this stage, is two-fold. First, mapping relevant actors, their positions and connections in networks provides us with insight into their capacity to participate and contribute to health policy development. Second, these new tools contribute to a further understanding of policy entrepreneurial roles to be taken up by health promotion professionals and health authorities in favour of the socio-environmental approach to health.

Notwithstanding the value of this first step, more research is required into both the practical application as well as in the theoretical connections with, for example, Multiple Streams theory.

The structural events approach- A "better" way to understand long-term change in trade union structure: the Australian story (1986-96)

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity in constructing explanations of change. Using the Australian trade union movement as an example, this article argues that our understanding of the long-term change in the external structure of trade unions would be better served by a structural events approach (Waddington, 1995) that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, this article presents new data on structural change in the Australian trade union movement between 1986 and 1996, and explains the additional contribution made by union dissolutions and union formations to the reductionist effects of the merger wave that dominated these years.