Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.

Is South Korea’s stock market efficient?

This letter applies the Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251-70, 1992) one break and the Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economic and Statistics, 79, 212-8, 1997) two break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for stock prices in South Korea. The results provide strong evidence that stock prices in South Korea are characterized by a unit root, which is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Cointegration of stock markets between New Zealand, Australia and the G7 Economies :searching for common trends under structural change

This paper examines whether the New Zealand equity market is integrated with the equity markets of Australia and the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (1988) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) approaches to cointegration. The Johansen (1988) test suggests that there is no long-run relationship between the New Zealand stock market and any of the other stock markets considered in the study. The Gregory and Hansen (1996) test finds that the New Zealand and United States stock market is cointegrated, but the New Zealand stock market is not cointegrated with the other stock markets in the study. This suggests that in order to avoid some of the risk through international portfolio diversification there is potential for investors to purchase shares in the New Zealand market and either the Australian market or most of the world’s leading equity markets.

Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.

Interdependence and dynamic linkages between the emerging stock markets of South Asia

The present article examines the dynamic linkages between the stock markets
of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a temporal Granger causality
approach by binding the relationship among the stock price indices within a
multivariate cointegration framework. We also examine the impulse response
functions. Our main finding is that in the long run, stock prices in Bangladesh,
India and Sri Lanka Granger-cause stock prices in Pakistan. In the short run
there is unidirectional Granger causality running from stock prices in Pakistan
to India, stock prices in Sri Lanka to India and from stock prices in Pakistan to
Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is the most exogenous of the four markets, reflecting its
small size and modest market capitalization.

Options for change in the Australian cervical cancer screening program in context of HPV detection and vaccination

Introduction:
Cervical cancer screening has been implemented for over a decade in Australia and has significantly reduced the mortality and morbidity of the disease. The emergence of new technologies for cervical cancer, such as the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and DNA testing has encouraged debate regarding the effective use of resources in cervical cancer prevention. The present study evaluates the cost-effectiveness, from a health sector perspective, of various screening strategies in the era of these new technologies.

Methods:
A stochastic epidemiological model using a discrete event and continuous algorithm was developed to describe the natural history of cervical cancer. By allowing one member of the cohort into the model at a time, this micro-simulation model encompasses the characteristics of heterogeneity and can track individual life histories. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccine a Markov model was built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. A number of proposed screening strategies were evaluated with the stochastic model for the application of HPV DNA testing, with changes in the screening interval and target population. Health outcomes were measured by Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs), adjusted for application within an evaluation setting (i.e. the mortality component of the DALY was adjusted by a disability weight when early mortality due to cervical cancer is avoided). Costs in complying with the Australian updated guidelines were assessed by pathway analysis to estimate the resources associated with cervical cancer and its pre-cancerous lesion treatment. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the key parameters that influenced the cost-effectiveness results.

Results:
Current practice has already brought huge health gain by preventing more than 4,000 deaths and saving more than 86,000 life-years in a cohort of a million women. Any of the alternative screening strategies alter the total amount of health gain by a small margin compared to current practice. The results of incremental analyses of the alternative screening strategies compared to current practice suggest the adoption of the HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool every 3 years commencing at age 18, or the combined pap smear/HPV test every 3 years commencing at age 25, are more costly than current practice but with reasonable ICERs (AUD$1,810 per DALY and AUD$18,600 per DALY respectively). Delaying commencement of Pap test screening to age 25 is less costly than current practice, but involves considerable health loss. The sensitivity analysis shows, however, that the screening test accuracy has a significant impact on these conclusions. Threshold analysis indicates that a sensitivity ranging from 0.80 to 0.86 for the combined test in women younger than 30 is required to produce an acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Conclusions:
The adoption of HPV and combined test with an extended screening interval is more costly but affordable, resulting in reasonable ICERs. They appear good value for money for the Australian health care system, but need more information on test accuracy to make an informed decision. Potential screening policy change under current Australian HPV Vaccination Program is current work in progress. A Markov model is built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. Adoption of HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool in the context of HPV vaccination is under evaluation.

Innovative reuse options for water treatment plant sludges

Reuse options were investigated for drinking water sludge. Research found sludges could be included with raw materials in brick and cement manufacturing with minimal impact. Poly-aluminium chloride sludge was found to an excellent adsorbent of phosphorus from wastewaters thus indirectly reducing potential algal blooms in our rivers.

Portfolio diversification and share price behavior : some evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This dissertation consists of four separate but closely related studies which investigate different aspects of share price behavior on the Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period 1980-89: 1.The benefits of diversification available to investors using the Markowitz model and the Single Model Index. 2. The applicability of the CAPM to the TSE over the decade. 3. Regularities in proce sequences. 4. Market reaction to the announcements of stock dividends, right issues and combinations of both.

An examination of the range of self-funding options available to regional galleries and an assessment of their suitability for use in those institutions

Researches the suitability of a variety of self-funding options available to regional galleries in Australia. An overview of the range of current self-funding practices is given. Each option is mapped according to its impact on core/value added services and its effect on primary/secondary users and assessed for suitability using these criteria.

Stock-in-trade valuation in the United Kingdom 1840 to 1959

Commentators have made a number of unsubstantiated claims about why the lower of cost and market rule had become the accepted method of valuation. It is demonstrated that none of these explanations can be substantiated. Leon Festinger's theory of "dissonance reduction" is used to explain why the significant criticisms of the rule have been ignored.

The potential use of otoliths for pilchard stock discrimination

Pilchards were collected from south-eastern Australian waters and aged by counting growth rings on their ear bones (otoliths). Differences in growth and population age structures were compared between regions. The shape characteristics of the ear bones were also examined using rapid, objective, semi-automated methods. Differences between the areas were shown.