Assessing risk post intervention for an acute coronary syndrome: a review of the risk assessment tools and their development

Considerable variability in survival rate after an acute myocardial infarction exists and accurate risk stratification is of significant importance. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association has recommended early risk stratification using several clinical risk scoring instruments to identify high risk patients. The aim of this paper is to identify secondary cardiovascular risk scoring instruments that could be utilized at the time of intervention for acute coronary syndromes and compare their psychometric properties as they were developed. A search using Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and the Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection data-bases identified studies published between January 1990 and January 2010 used to measure risk after intervention for acute coronary syndrome. Four validated secondary risk prediction scoring instruments were identified for comparison.Secondary risk prediction scoring instruments for the acute coronary syndrome patient population are evidence based, valid and reliable. Use of the instruments by cardiac focused clinicians will aid in the determination of treatment strategies, and estimation of short and long term events and mortality.

Mothers after gestational diabetes in Australia Diabetes Prevention Program (MAGDA-DPP) post-natal intervention: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background:
Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as glucose intolerance with its onset or first recognition during pregnancy. Post-GDM women have a life-time risk exceeding 70% of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Lifestyle modifications reduce the incidence of T2DM by up to 58% for high-risk individuals.

Methods/Design:
The Mothers After Gestational Diabetes in Australia Diabetes Prevention Program (MAGDA-DPP) is a randomized controlled trial aiming to assess the effectiveness of a structured diabetes prevention intervention for post-GDM women. This trial has an intervention group participating in a diabetes prevention program (DPP), and a control group receiving usual care from their general practitioners during the same time period. The 12-month intervention comprises an individual session followed by five group sessions at two-week intervals, and two follow-up telephone calls. A total of 574 women will be recruited, with 287 in each arm. The women will undergo blood tests, anthropometric measurements, and self-reported health status, diet, physical activity, quality of life, depression, risk perception and healthcare service usage, at baseline and 12 months. At completion, primary outcome (changes in diabetes risk) and secondary outcome (changes in psychosocial and quality of life measurements and in cardiovascular disease risk factors) will be assessed in both groups.

Discussion:
This study aims to show whether MAGDA-DPP leads to a reduction in diabetes risk for post-GDM women. The characteristics that predict intervention completion and improvement in clinical and behavioral measures will be useful for further development of DPPs for this population.

Analysing stillbirth data using dynamic self organizing maps

Even with the presence of modern obstetric care, stillbirth rate seems to stay stagnant or has even risen slightly in countries such as England and has become a significant public health concern [1]. In the light of current medical research, maternal risk factors such as diabetes and hypertensive disease were identified as possible risk factors and are taken into consideration in antenatal care. However, medical practitioners and researchers suspect possible relationships between trends in maternal demographics, antenatal care and pregnancy information of current stillbirth in consideration [2]. Although medical data and knowledge is available appropriate computing techniques to analyze the data may lead to identification of high risk groups. In this paper we use an unsupervised clustering technique called Growing Self organizing Map (GSOM) to analyse the stillbirth data and present patterns which can be important to medical researchers.

Childhood neurodevelopmental factors and risk of psychotic experiences in early adolescence: genotypic variation and developmental endophenotypes

This thesis was about understanding the childhood developmental factors that may lead to psychotic experiences in early adolescence. It also contributed to efforts towards preventative strategies for children with a high risk of psychotic symptoms, and arguably schizophrenia. Based on the findings, the author concluded, that further research on this topic should focus on the development of early detection methods and interventions for high risk children.

A comparison of maternal calcium and magnesium levels in pre-eclamptic and normotensive pregnancies: an observational case–control study

Objective : Supplementing pregnant women at high risk of developing pre-eclampsia with calcium may reduce the incidence of the disease. This study examines differences in serum and hair concentrations of calcium and magnesium between women with pre-eclamptic and normotensive pregnancies.Design : Observational case–control study.Setting : Two teaching hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa.PopulationWomen with pre-eclamptic (N = 96) or normotensive (N = 96) pregnancies, who delivered a single, live infant.MethodsDemographic and current pregnancy details were retrieved from clinical notes. Each participant completed a dietary questionnaire. Venous blood samples were taken from each participant to assess serum calcium and magnesium concentrations. Hair samples were obtained from all participants and calcium and magnesium levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICPOES).Main outcome measureHair and serum calcium and magnesium concentrations were compared between women with pre-eclamptic and normotensive pregnancies.ResultsDiet and socio-economic status in the two groups were similar. There was no significant difference in the hair calcium level between women with pre-eclamptic [1241 parts per million (ppm); range, 331–4654 ppm] and normotensive (1146 ppm; range, 480–4136 ppm) pregnancies (P = 0.5). Hair calcium levels in both groups were not affected by HIV infection.ConclusionWoman with pre-eclampsia showed no difference in chronic calcium status relative to normotensive women. This finding does not support the current belief that the mechanism by which calcium supplementation reduces the risk of developing pre-eclampsia is by correcting a nutritional deficiency.

The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study.

There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra-high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at-risk (BAR)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the BAR criteria.

Underestimation of risk perception in patients at risk of heart disease

Accurate perception of cardiovascular risk is important if people with established, or at high risk of, coronary heart disease are to engage in risk-reducing behaviours.

Development and evaluation of a screening tool to identify people with diabetes at increased risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence

Abstract Aims: To develop and evaluate a screening tool to identify people with diabetes at increased risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence. Methods: A retrospective audit of attendances at a diabetes outpatient clinic at a public, teaching hospital over a 16-month period was conducted. Logistic regression was undertaken to examine risk factors associated with medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence and the most predictive set of factors comprise the Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool. Evaluating the tool involved assessing sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, cut-off scores, inter-rater reliability, and content validity. Results: The Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool comprises seven predictive factors: age, living alone, English language, mental and behavioural problems, comorbidity index score, number of medications prescribed, and number of high-risk medications prescribed. The tool has 76.5% sensitivity, 59.5% specificity, and has a 65.1% positive predictive value, and a 71.8% negative predictive value. A score of 27 or more out of 62 was associated with high-risk of a medication problem. The inter-rater reliability of the tool was high (κ = 0.79, 95% CI 0.75 - 0.84) and the content validity index was 99.4%. Conclusion: The Diabetes Medication Risk Screening Tool has good psychometric properties and can proactively identify people with diabetes at greatest risk of medication problems relating to hypoglycaemia and medication non-adherence.

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: Clinicians' current practice and future needs

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice.

Mapping potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change

The performance of footings in residential construction is influenced by the degree of ground movement, particularly in reactive soils, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. New patterns of climate are affecting residential foundations and causing serious and expensive damage. This paper produces a map of potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change. Using a geographic information system, it combines information on (1) soil moisture change related to climate, using TMI as the indicator, and (2) population growth. Preliminary results, having Victoria, Australia, in the last decade as the case study, suggest that effects of climate change on soil, and resulting impacts on house foundations, are not being taken into consideration in current planning strategies for urban development. Most of the urban growth priority zones in the study area are susceptible to medium and high risk for damage. Producing new and renovated buildings that are durable in the long term is essential for the economy, environment and social welfare. The map presented here can assist policies and strategies towards urban resilience in the context of climate change.

Prospective progression from high-prevalence disorders to bipolar disorder: exploring characteristics of pre-illness stages

BACKGROUND: Identification of risk factors within precursor syndromes, such as depression, anxiety or substance use disorders (SUD), might help to pinpoint high-risk stages where preventive interventions for Bipolar Disorder (BD) could be evaluated.

METHODS: We examined baseline demographic, clinical, quality of life, and temperament measures along with risk clusters among 52 young people seeking help for depression, anxiety or SUDs without psychosis or BD. The risk clusters included Bipolar At-Risk (BAR) and the Bipolarity Index as measures of bipolarity and the Ultra-High Risk assessment for psychosis. The participants were followed up for 12 months to identify conversion to BD. Those who converted and did not convert to BD were compared using Chi-Square and Mann Whitney U tests.

RESULTS: The sample was predominantly female (85%) and a majority had prior treatment (64%). Four participants converted to BD over the 1-year follow up period. Having an alcohol use disorder at baseline (75% vs 8%, χ(2)=14.1, p<0.001) or a family history of SUD (67% vs 12.5%, χ(2)=6.0, p=0.01) were associated with development of BD. The sub-threshold mania subgroup of BAR criteria was also associated with 12-month BD outcomes. The severity of depressive symptoms and cannabis use had high effects sizes of association with BD outcomes, without statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS AND LIMITATIONS: The small number of conversions limited the power of the study to identify associations with risk factors that have previously been reported to predict BD. However, subthreshold affective symptoms and SUDs might predict the onset of BD among help-seeking young people with high-prevalence disorders.

Cancer risk factors, diagnosis and sexual identity in the Australian longitudinal study of women's health

PURPOSE: We sought to examine cancer diagnosis, cancer treatment, and related risk factors among Australian, middle-aged, exclusively heterosexual women compared with sexual minority women (SMW; mainly heterosexual, bisexual, mainly lesbian, and lesbian). METHODS: Secondary data analysis of the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health for women born in 1946 through 1951 (n = 10,451) included bivariate tests (i.e., contingency table analyses, independent t tests). RESULTS: SMW did not have significantly higher cancer diagnoses compared with exclusively heterosexual women, although they were more likely to report never having had a mammogram or pap smear. SMW were also significantly more likely to be high-risk drinkers (11.1% vs. 6.8%; p < .05), current smokers (15.1% vs. 8.3%; p < .001), report significantly higher rates of depression (mean ± SD; 6.4 ± 5.5 vs. 5.4 ± 5.1; p < .01.), have experienced physical abuse (10.2% vs. 5.1%; p < .001), and been in a violent relationship (27.2% vs. 12.8%; p < .001). CONCLUSION: SMW had higher rates of several known cancer risk factors, ostensibly placing them at higher risk of cancer as well as chronic health conditions. Further research is needed to determine whether increased risk results in increased cancer as these women age, and to inform the development of interventions to reduce the risk of disease for SMW.

Prediction of perinatal depression from adolescence and before conception (VIHCS): 20-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a neglected global health priority, affecting 10-15% of women in high-income countries and a greater proportion in low-income countries. Outcomes for children include cognitive, behavioural, and emotional difficulties and, in low-income settings, perinatal depression is associated with stunting and physical illness. In the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS), we aimed to assess the extent to which women with perinatal depressive symptoms had a history of mental health problems before conception. METHODS: VIHCS is a follow-up study of participants in the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS), which was initiated in August, 1992, in the state of Victoria, Australia. In VAHCS, participants were assessed for health outcomes at nine timepoints (waves) from age 14 years to age 29 years. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule and the General Health Questionnaire. Enrolment to VIHCS began in September, 2006, during the ninth wave of VAHCS; depressive symptoms at this timepoint were measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We contacted women every 6 months (from age 29 years to age 35 years) to identify any pregnancies. We assessed perinatal depressive symptoms with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) by computer-assisted telephone interview at 32 weeks of gestation, 8 weeks after birth, and 12 months after birth. We defined perinatal depression as an EPDS score of 10 or more. FINDINGS: From a stratified random sample of 1000 female participants in VAHCS, we enrolled 384 women with 564 pregnancies. 253 (66%) of these women had a previous history of mental health problems at some point in adolescence or young adulthood. 117 women with a history of mental health problems in both adolescence and young adulthood had 168 pregnancies, and perinatal depressive symptoms were reported for 57 (34%) of these pregnancies, compared with 16 (8%) of 201 pregnancies in 131 women with no preconception history of mental health problems (adjusted odds ratio 8·36, 95% CI 3·34-20·87). Perinatal depressive symptoms were reported at one or more assessment points in 109 pregnancies; a preconception history of mental health problems was reported in 93 (85%) of these pregnancies. INTERPRETATION: Perinatal depressive symptoms are mostly preceded by mental health problems that begin before pregnancy, in adolescence or young adulthood. Women with a history of persisting common mental disorders before pregnancy are an identifiable high-risk group, deserving of clinical support throughout the childbearing years. Furthermore, the window for considering preventive intervention for perinatal depression should extend to the time before conception. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Colonial Foundation, Australian Rotary Health Research and Perpetual Trustees.

DNA transfer by examination tools--a risk for forensic casework?

The introduction of profiling systems with increased sensitivity has led to a concurrent increase in the risk of detecting contaminating DNA in forensic casework. To evaluate the contamination risk of tools used during exhibit examination we have assessed the occurrence and level of DNA transferred between mock casework exhibits, comprised of cotton or glass substrates, and high-risk vectors (scissors, forceps, and gloves). The subsequent impact of such transfer in the profiling of a target sample was also investigated. Dried blood or touch DNA, deposited on the primary substrate, was transferred via the vector to the secondary substrate, which was either DNA-free or contained a target sample (dried blood or touch DNA). Pairwise combinations of both heavy and light contact were applied by each vector in order to simulate various levels of contamination. The transfer of dried blood to DNA-free cotton was observed for all vectors and transfer scenarios, with transfer substantially lower when glass was the substrate. Overall touch DNA transferred less efficiently, with significantly lower transfer rates than blood when transferred to DNA-free cotton; the greatest transfer of touch DNA occurred between cotton and glass substrates. In the presence of a target sample, the detectability of transferred DNA decreased due to the presence of background DNA. Transfer had no impact on the detectability of the target profile, however, in casework scenarios where the suspect profiles are not known, profile interpretation becomes complicated by the addition of contaminating alleles and the probative value of the evidence may be affected. The results of this study reiterate the need for examiners to adhere to stringent laboratory cleaning protocols, particularly in the interest of contamination minimisation, and to reduce the handling of items to prevent intra-item transfer.

Overview of cardiovascular risk in older people with diabetes: basic pathophysiology, risk factors and management

Increasing age is a risk factor for diabetes; consequently, diabetes is prevalent in older people. Older people with diabetes are at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular events, such as myocardial infarction and heart failure.Multiple pathological processes underlie CVD, including inflammation, oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, thrombosis and angiogenesis. These pathological processes are influenced by age, ethnicity, genetic makeup, obesity, hyperglycaemia,insulin resistance, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, renal disease, inappropriate diet and inactivity, which are components of the metabolic syndrome and CVD risk factors. The more risk factors present, the higher the risk of CVD. Significantly, vascular damage occurs slowly; therefore, it is essential to undertake a comprehensive vascular risk assessment and manage the risk early in life to improve the individual’soutcomes. Management strategies must be negotiated with the individual and appropriately tailored to their CVD risk and functional status, life expectancy and safety.