Online pattern classification with multiple neural network systems: an experimental study

In this paper, an empirical study of the development and application of a committee of neural networks on online pattern classification tasks is presented. A multiple classifier framework is designed by adopting an Adaptive Resonance Theory-based (ART) autonomously learning neural network as the building block. A number of algorithms for combining outputs from multiple neural classifiers are considered, and two benchmark data sets have been used to evaluate the applicability of the proposed system. Different learning strategies coupling offline and online learning approaches, as well as different input pattern representation schemes, including the "ensemble" and "modular" methods, have been examined experimentally. Benefits and shortcomings of each approach are systematically analyzed and discussed. The results are comparable, and in some cases superior, with those from other classification algorithms. The experiments demonstrate the potentials of the proposed multiple neural network systems in offering an alternative to handle online pattern classification tasks in possibly nonstationary environments.

Construction of neural network-based prediction intervals using particle swarm optimization

Prediction intervals (PIs) are excellent tools for quantification of uncertainties associated with point forecasts and predictions. This paper adopts and develops the lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method for construction of PIs using neural network (NN) models. This method is fast and simple and does not require calculation of heavy matrices, as required by traditional methods. Besides, it makes no assumption about the data distribution. A new width-based index is proposed to quantitatively check how much PIs are informative. Using this measure and the coverage probability of PIs, a multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to train NN models in the LUBE method. The optimization problem is then transformed into a training problem through definition of a PI-based cost function. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) with the mutation operator is used to minimize the cost function. Experiments with synthetic and real-world case studies indicate that the proposed PSO-based LUBE method can construct higher quality PIs in a simpler and faster manner.