New improved tests for cointegration with structural breaks

This article proposes Lagrange multiplier-based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, deterministic trends, and a structural break of unknown timing in both the intercept and slope. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be invariant not only with respect to the trend and structural break, but also with respect to the regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power relative to other tests. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Testing convergence of Fiji's tourism markets

The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets is based on the tenet that when tourism markets are converging the difference between total international visitor arrivals to a country and international visitor arrivals from a particular country will be stationary. We argue that if this is true, then convergence can also be tested through examining whether total visitor arrivals and visitor arrivals from a particular market are cointegrated. We test the convergence hypothesis by examining visitor arrivals to Fiji from eight tourist source markets, using both unit root and cointegration tests. We find strong statistical evidence that Fiji's tourism markets converge.

Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law : empirical evidence from Chinese provinces

This paper tests Wagner's law of increasing state activity using panels of Chinese provinces. The paper's main methodological contribution is in that we employ for the first time in the literature on Wagner's law a panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality testing approach. Overall, we find mixed evidence in support of Wagner's law for China's central and western provinces, but no support for Wagner's law for the full panel of provinces or for the panel of China's eastern provinces.

Are health expenditures and GDP characterized by asymmetric behaviour? Evidence from 11 OECD countries

In this article, we examine whether per-capita health expenditures and per-capita GDP for 11 OECD countries can be characterized by asymmetric behaviour. We achieve this goal by using the nonparametric Triples test suggested by Randles et al. (1980). We examine two forms of asymmetries, namely deepness and steepness. Our main finding is that for 6 out of 11 countries, namely for the USA, the UK, Japan, Spain, Finland and Iceland, either per-capita health expenditures or per-capita GDP are characterized by asymmetric behaviour. This finding to some extent casts doubt on those studies that model the relationship between health and GDP using unit-root and cointegration tests that assume symmetric disturbances.

The relationship between saving and investment for Japan

In this paper, we revisit the saving and investment nexus as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka (FH) [Econ. J. 90 (1980) 314]. We test for cointegration between saving and investment using the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and derive the long-run elasticities using the autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach for Japan over the period 1960–1999. We establish the unit root properties of the data in the presence of structural break(s) using the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) [J. Business Econ. Stat. 10 (1992) 251] and the Lumsdaine and Papell (LP) [Rev. Econ. Stat. 79 (1997) 212] tests. Finally, we ascertain the direction of causation between saving and investment by using the bootstrap approach. Amongst our key results we find that saving and investment are cointegrated for Japan; investment causes saving and saving causes investment; shocks to saving and investment have a permanent effect; and the long-run coefficient on saving is 0.68, implying a moderate rate of correlation. From the latter finding, we believe that there is no puzzle between saving and investment in the case of Japan, a result contrary to FH (1980).

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.

Are shocks to real output permanent or transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

Panel unit root and stationarity tests without structural breaks suggest that for eight Pacific island economies real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita contains a unit root. The panel stationarity test that accommodates structural change in the trend function, however, finds evidence in favour of regimewise trend stationarity. This result points to the importance of taking structural breaks into account. The finding implies that, for the period considered, the permanent secular component of output is dominated by transitory fluctuations accompanied by infrequent changes in the trend function. The only exceptions are Fiji and Kiribati, for which individual stationarity tests with multiple structural breaks suggest that real GDP per capita contains a unit root.

lnvestigating spatial linkages of construction prices in Australia's regions

Linkages among different construction markets have attracted great of attention from the construction economist. With notable exceptions, most of this infestation has carried out by using input-output analysis. Interactions among regional construction markets have been discussed in few studies and none of them investigate spatial effects on the regional construction markets. This study employed spatial econometric techniques, spatial autocorrelation and convergence tests, to analysis interactions and linkages among construction price indices in Australian six states and two territories. The empirical results indicate the presence of significant positive spatial correlation between the construction prices in Australian eight construction markets and the degree of dependence decrease sufficiently quickly as the space between units increase. The results of convergence test further present evidence on "ripple effect" in the construction prices in Australian regional markets and the changes in regional construction price would positively influence neighboring states first, and then spread out into others, and then the regional prices converge and reach a long-run equilibrium in the following quarters. Urban development policymakers and construction developers could benefit from the analysis of spatial linkages in regional construction markets.

On the asymptotic distribution of the Dickey Fuller-GLS test statistic

In a very influential paper, Elliott et al. [Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica. 1996;64:813–836] show that no uniformly most powerful test for the unit root testing problem exits, derive the relevant power envelope and characterize a family of point-optimal tests. As a by-product, they also propose a ‘generalized least squares (GLS) detrended’ version of the conventional Dickey–Fuller test, denoted DF-GLS, that has since then become very popular among practitioners, much more so than the point-optimal tests. In view of this, it is quite strange to find that, while conjectured in Elliott et al. [Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica. 1996;64:813–836], so far there seems to be no formal proof of the asymptotic distribution of the DF-GLS test statistic. By providing three separate proofs, the current paper not only substantiates the required result, but also provides insight regarding the pros and cons of different methods of proof.

A simple test for nonstationarity in mixed panels with incidental trends

Ng (2008) shows how the cross-sectional variance of the observed panel data can be used to construct a simple test for the proportion of non-stationary units. However, in the case with incidental trends the test is distorted. The present note shows how the distortions can be substantially reduced by the use of bias-adjustment. It also investigates the local power of the bias-adjusted test, which is shown to suffer from the same incidental trends problem previously only documented for conventional t-tests.

Farmland prices, structural breaks and panel data

Previous time series evidence has indicated that farmland prices and cash rents are not cointegrated, a finding at odds with the present value model of farmland prices. We argue that this failure to find cointegration may be due to low power of tests and to the presence of structural change representing a shifting risk premium on farmland investments. To accommodate this possibility, we use panel unit root and cointegration methods that are more powerful than conventional time series methods and allow for breaks in the cointegration relationship. Our results, based on a large panel covering 31 US states between 1960 and 2000, suggest that the present value model of farmland prices cannot be rejected. © Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2007; all rights reserved.

Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks

This paper proposes a Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for the null hypothesis of cointegration that allows for the possibility of multiple structural breaks in both the level and trend of a cointegrated panel regression. The test is general enough to allow for endogenous regressors, serial correlation and an unknown number of breaks that may be located at different dates for different individuals. We derive the limiting distribution of the test and conduct a small Monte Carlo study to investigate its finite sample properties. In our empirical application to the solvency of the current account, we find evidence of cointegration between saving and investment once a level break is accommodated. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006.

Using panel data to test for fiscal sustainability within the European Union

Most empirical evidence suggests that the sustainability hypothesis, stating that government revenues and expenditures should cointegrate with a unit slope on expenditures, does not hold within the European Union, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the use of in-appropriate time-series techniques, and that the use of panel data can generate more accurate tests. By using newly devised panel unit-root and cointegration techniques it is shown that the sustainability hypothesis cannot be rejected when applied to a panel composed of 15 European countries between 1970 and 2004. © 2009 Mohr Siebeck.

Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing for predictability in panels with general predictors

The difficulty of predicting returns has recently motivated researchers to start looking for tests that are either more powerful or robust to more features of the data. Unfortunately, the way that these tests work typically involves trading robustness for power or vice versa. The current paper takes this as its starting point to develop a new panel-based approach to predictability that is both robust and powerful. Specifically, while the panel route to increased power is not new, the way in which the cross-section variation is exploited also to achieve robustness with respect to the predictor is. The result is two new tests that enable asymptotically standard normal and chi-squared inference across a wide range of empirically relevant scenarios in which the predictor may be stationary, moderately non-stationary, nearly non-stationary, or indeed unit root non-stationary. The type of cross-section dependence that can be permitted in the predictor is also very general, and can be weak or strong, although we do require that the cross-section dependence in the regression errors is of the strong form. What is more, this generality comes at no cost in terms of complicated test construction. The new tests are therefore very user-friendly.