Loss of periodicity in breeding success of waders links to changes in lemming cycles in Arctic ecosystems

Lemming population cycles in the Arctic have an important impact on the Arctic food web, indirectly also affecting breeding success in Arctic-nesting birds through shared predators. Over the last two decades lemming cycles have changed in amplitude and even disappeared in parts of the Arctic. To examine the large scale effect of these recent changes we re-analysed published data from the East Atlantic Flyway (EAF), where a relationship between lemming cycles and wader breeding success was earlier found, and new data on breeding success of waders in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF). We found that 1) any long-term periodicities in wader breeding success existed only until the year 2000 in the EAAF and until the 1980s in the EAF; 2) studying these patterns at a smaller spatial scale, where the Siberian-Alaskan breeding grounds were divided into five geographical units largely based on landscape features, breeding success of waders from the EAAF was not correlated to an index of predation pressure, but positively correlated to Arctic summer temperatures in some species. We argue that fading out of lemming cycles in some parts of the Arctic is responsible for faltering periodicity in wader breeding success along both flyways. These changed conditions have not yet resulted in any marked changing trends in breeding success across years, and declining numbers of waders along the EAAF are therefore more likely a result of changing conditions at stop-over and wintering sites.

Sequential polyandry through divorce and re-pairing in a cooperatively breeding bird reduces helper-offspring relatedness

Polyandry is an important component of both sexual selection and kin structuring within cooperatively breeding species. A female may have multiple partners within a single reproductive attempt (simultaneous polyandry) or across multiple broods within and/or across years (sequential polyandry). Both types of polyandry confer a range of costs and benefits to individuals and alter the genetic structure of social groups over time. To date, many molecular studies of cooperative breeders have examined the evolution of cooperative breeding in relation to simultaneous polyandry. However, cooperatively breeding vertebrates are iteroparous, and thus sequential polyandry is also likely, but more rarely considered in this context. We examined sequential polyandry in a cooperatively breeding bird that has a low level of within-brood polyandry. Over a 5-year period (2006–2010), we monitored individual mating relationships using molecular markers in a population of individually marked apostlebirds (Struthidea cinerea). Divorce occurred between reproductive seasons in 17 % (8/48) of pairs and appeared to be female-driven. The level of sequential polyandry was also driven by the disappearance of males after breeding, and over 90 % of females, for whom we had suitable data, bred with multiple males over the period of study. This sequential polyandry significantly altered the relatedness of group members to the offspring in the nest. However, in about half of the cases, the second male was related (first- or second-order relative) to the first male of a sequentially polyandrous female and this alleviated the reduction in relatedness caused by polyandry. Our findings suggest that even in species with high within-brood parentage certainty, helper-offspring relatedness values can quickly erode through sequential polyandry.

Effects of sea temperature and stratification changes on seabird breeding success

As apex predators in marine ecosystems, seabirds may primarily experience climate change impacts indirectly, via changes to their food webs. Observed seabird population declines have been linked to climate-driven oceanographic and food web changes. However, relationships have often been derived from relatively few colonies and consider only sea surface temperature (SST), so important drivers, and spatial variation in drivers, could remain undetected. Further, ex - plicit climate change projections have rarely been made, so longer-term risks remain unclear. Here, we use tracking data to estimate foraging areas for 11 black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridac - ty la colonies in the UK and Ireland, thus reducing reliance on single colonies and allowing calculation of colony-specific oceanographic conditions. We use mixed models to consider how SST, the potential energy anomaly (indicating density stratification strength) and the timing of seasonal stratification influence kittiwake productivity. Across all colonies, higher breeding success was associated with weaker stratification before breeding and lower SSTs during the breeding season. Eight colonies with sufficient data were modelled individually: higher productivity was associated with later stratification at 3 colonies, weaker stratification at 2, and lower SSTs at one, whilst 2 colonies showed no significant relationships. Hence, key drivers of productivity varied among colonies. Climate change projections, made using fitted models, indicated that breeding success could decline by 21 to 43% between 1961-90 and 2070-99. Climate change therefore poses a longer-term threat to kittiwakes, but as this will be mediated via availability of key prey species, other marine apex predators could also face similar threats.

Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Understanding Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) infection dynamics in wildlife is crucial because of possible virus spill over to livestock and humans. Studies from the northern hemisphere have suggested several ecological and environmental drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds. To determine if the same drivers apply in the southern hemisphere, where more irregular environmental conditions prevail, we investigated AIV prevalence in ducks in relation to biotic and abiotic factors in south-eastern Australia. We sampled duck faeces for AIV and tested for an effect of bird numbers, rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and long-term ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) patterns on AIV prevalence. We demonstrate a positive long term effect of ENSO-related rainfall on AIV prevalence. We also found a more immediate response to rainfall where AIV prevalence was positively related to rainfall in the preceding 3-7 months. Additionally, for one duck species we found a positive relationship between their numbers and AIV prevalence, while prevalence was negatively or not affected by duck numbers in the remaining four species studied. In Australia largely non-seasonal rainfall patterns determine breeding opportunities and thereby influence bird numbers. Based on our findings we suggest that rainfall influences age structures within populations, producing an influx of immunologically naïve juveniles within the population, which may subsequently affect AIV infection dynamics. Our study suggests that drivers of AIV dynamics in the northern hemisphere do not have the same influence at our south-east Australian field site in the southern hemisphere due to more erratic climatological conditions.

Human residential status and habitat quality affect the likelihood but not the success of lapwing breeding in an urban matrix

Wildlife living in the suburbs faces the challenge of dealing with human presence and yard management (including the occurrence of pets) which vary at the scale of the house block. This study examined the influence of ecological factors (e.g. extent of grass and food availability) and anthropogenic factors (e.g. human activity and garden usage) on breeding site choice and reproductive success of the ground-nesting masked lapwing Vanellus miles on Phillip Island, Australia. Lapwings nested less frequently in residential properties (high levels of human usage) compared with vacant blocks and holiday houses. They were also more likely to breed on properties with high food availability and larger areas of grass. None of these variables influenced clutch size or the probability of eggs hatching, although larger clutches and higher hatching rates tended to be associated with more food. This study shows that, for an urban exploiting species, habitat quality is not homogenous at the scale of the house block, and that human activity is avoided by a species generally considered highly tolerant of people.