Exploring potential success factors for procurement of privately financed infrastructure

Australia has joined many governments to adopt public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, failures have occurred although the market has been considered to be a mature and sophisticated one. Failures have typically been traced back to inappropriate economic evaluation and a lack of value-for-money. In particular, a literature review has identified that there was no holistic consideration on the evaluation of procurement transactions of PPP projects. The transaction costs of PPPs were not handled properly. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics are proposed for the purpose of such a holistic institutional economic evaluation. These theories are analysed in order to identify potential critical success factors for a strategic infrastructure procurement framework. The potential critical success factors are identified and grouped into a number of categories that match the theories of transaction cost economics. These categories include (1) Asset Specificity, (2) Organizational Capability, (3) Transaction Frequency, (4) Behavioural Uncertainty, and (5) Environmental Uncertainty. These potential critical success factors may be subject to an empirical test in the future. The proposed framework will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

Secure mobile RFID ownership transfer protocol to cover all transfer scenarios

Existing business models require RFID tag to transfer its ownership during its life cycle. As a result, a RFID tags might have many owners during its life cycle. However, the transfer of ownership should ensure that previous owners have no information about current owner's data. Physical ownership does not ensure digital ownership transfer given the wireless nature of communication with RFID tags. Most of the proposed protocol in this nature is implacable to address aU existing RFID tag ownership transfer scenarios. Moreover, they have many security concerns and vulnerabilities. In this paper, we have investigated and discussed all existing business cases and their transfer scenarios. To cover all ownership transfer scenarios, we have presented an ownership transfer protocol. The proposed protocol has used modified DiffieHellman algorithm to perform ownership request validation and authentication of involved parties. Performance comparison shows that our protocol is practical to implement passive low-cost RFID tags, securely performs tag ownership transfer and can be used for all existing ownership transfer scenarios.

The potential to reduce the embodied energy in construction through the use of renewable materials

The threat of dangerous levels of global warming demand that we significantly reduce carbon emissions over the coming decades. Globally, carbon emissions from all energy end-uses in buildings in 2004 were estimated to be 8.6 Gt CO2 or almost one quarter of total CO2 emissions (IPCC 2007). In Australia, nearly ten per cent of greenhouse gases come from the residential sector (DCCEE 2012). However, it is not merely the operation of the buildings that contributes to their CO2 emissions, but the energy used over their entire life cycle. Research has demonstrated that the embodied energy of the construction materials used in a building can sometimes equal the operational energy over the building’s entire lifetime (Crawford 2011). Therefore the materials used in construction need to be carefully considered. Conventional building materials not only represent high levels of embodied energy but also use resources that are finite and are being depleted. Renewable building materials are those materials that can be regenerated quickly enough to remove the threat of depletion and in theory their production could be carbon-neutral. To assess the potential for renewable building materials to reduce the embodied energy content of residential construction, the embodied energy of a small residential building has been determined. Wherever possible, the conventional construction materials were then replaced by commercially-available renewable building materials. The embodied energy of the building was then recalculated. The analysis showed that the embodied energy of the building could be reduced from 7.5 GJ per m2 to 5.4 GJ per m2 i.e. by 28%. The commercial availability of renewable materials, however, was a limiting factor and indicated that the industry is not yet well positioned to embrace this strategy to reduce embodied energy of construction. While some conventional building materials could readily be replaced, in many instances a renewable substitute could not be found.

Drought and desalination: Melbourne water supply and development choices in the twenty-first century

Sharply reduced catchment inflows across Australia around the end of the twentieth century led to a sequence of water restrictions followed, as the drought persisted, by approximately $10 billion of investments in desalination plants near Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. This Deakin University project jointly with Griffith University, for the National Centre of Excellence in Desalination (NCEDA), follows these new investments. We ask how best to manage bulk water supply and retail supply given the facts and fears of uncertain rainfall, modelled over a 100 year simulation period. We use Monte Carlo style studies aiming to capture the new tensions and trade-offs regarding uncertain climate, rainfall and water supply. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to model city water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for such investment responses to low catchment levels, models that could provide significant policy implications for water planners. This project addresses the gap, and presents excerpts from a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages and water grids. We add inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. Tariffs are reset in association with drought and the modelling of responses both in terms of reduced consumption and increased revenue to the utility, depending on the elasticities of demand responses to higher tariffs, both short and long term, while also allowing effects from any transitional restrictions. Before reporting on parts of the simulations applied to Melbourne, this paper will first review the general issues surrounding whether desalination is or can be a “game changer” for economic development that hinges on secure water supply. We then explore options in bulk water supply management when desalination augments the choices, including catchments, dams, recycling, pipelines from rivers and savings in irrigation. Finally, the paper addresses the intriguing and important question of the value and cost of providing water for environmental uses.

PTEX is an essential nexus for protein export in malaria parasites

During the blood stages of malaria, several hundred parasite-encoded proteins are exported beyond the double-membrane barrier that separates the parasite from the host cell cytosol. These proteins have a variety of roles that are essential to virulence or parasite growth. There is keen interest in understanding how proteins are exported and whether common machineries are involved in trafficking the different classes of exported proteins. One potential trafficking machine is a protein complex known as the Plasmodium translocon of exported proteins (PTEX). Although PTEX has been linked to the export of one class of exported proteins, there has been no direct evidence for its role and scope in protein translocation. Here we show, through the generation of two parasite lines defective for essential PTEX components (HSP101 or PTEX150), and analysis of a line lacking the non-essential component TRX2 (ref. 12), greatly reduced trafficking of all classes of exported proteins beyond the double membrane barrier enveloping the parasite. This includes proteins containing the PEXEL motif (RxLxE/Q/D) and PEXEL-negative exported proteins (PNEPs). Moreover, the export of proteins destined for expression on the infected erythrocyte surface, including the major virulence factor PfEMP1 in Plasmodium falciparum, was significantly reduced in PTEX knockdown parasites. PTEX function was also essential for blood-stage growth, because even a modest knockdown of PTEX components had a strong effect on the parasite's capacity to complete the erythrocytic cycle both in vitro and in vivo. Hence, as the only known nexus for protein export in Plasmodium parasites, and an essential enzymic machine, PTEX is a prime drug target.

Age and productivity of academics: A case study of a public university in Malaysia

This study examines the relationship between age and productivity measured based on key performance indicators (KPI) amongst academic staff at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). Three models were used in the analysis: linear, quadratic and piece-wise spline. The linear model indicates that age is negatively related to KPI. The quadratic model shows an inverted-U shaped relationship where KPI peaks at age 41 years. The piece-wise spline model indicates academic staff reach the peak of their productivity between ages 46-50 years with another productive age interval between 36-40 years implying 10 golden years when KPI could be harvested fruitfully. There is a significant downtrend in the KPI after 50 years of age. Other factors that have significant influence on KPI are gender, academic rank and discipline. The sub-models show that the influence of age on KPI is more significant amongst academic staff in the arts compared to the science stream. Age influence on KPI is significant amongst female staff but not male staff. We conclude that assessing performance in the workplace with regard to age requires complex methodological engagement and also needs to be based on a wider lens which recognises and includes within the discussion, the intangible and social dimensions of performance.

Incorporating carbon footprints into seafood sustainability certification and eco-labels

The seafood industry has become increasingly interconnected at a global scale, with fish the most traded commodity worldwide. Travel to the farthest reaches of the oceans for capture is now common practice, and subsequent transport to market can require hundreds to thousands of miles of travel by sea and air. Refrigeration of seafood products is generally required at all stages of the journey from ocean to dinner plate, resulting in substantial energy expenditure. Energy input for aquaculture (including mariculture) products can also be high, namely due to the large amounts of feed required to support fish growth. As a result of these factors, the seafood industry has a substantial carbon footprint. Surprisingly, however, carbon footprints of seafood products are rarely integrated into assessments of their sustainability by eco-labels, sustainability certification, or consumer seafood sustainability guides. Suggestions are provided here for how carbon footprints could be incorporated within seafood sustainability schemes.

Economic evaluation of a group-based exercise program for falls prevention among the older community-dwelling population

BACKGROUND: Falls among older people are of growing concern globally. Implementing cost-effective strategies for their prevention is of utmost importance given the ageing population and associated potential for increased costs of fall-related injury over the next decades. The purpose of this study was to undertake a cost-utility analysis and secondary cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare system perspective, of a group-based exercise program compared to routine care for falls prevention in an older community-dwelling population.

METHODS: A decision analysis using a decision tree model was based on the results of a previously published randomised controlled trial with a community-dwelling population aged over 70. Measures of falls, fall-related injuries and resource use were directly obtained from trial data and supplemented by literature-based utility measures. A sub-group analysis was performed of women only. Cost estimates are reported in 2010 British Pound Sterling (GBP).

RESULTS: The ICER of GBP£51,483 per QALY for the base case analysis was well above the accepted cost-effectiveness threshold of GBP£20,000 to £30,000 per QALY, but in a sensitivity analysis with minimised program implementation the incremental cost reached GBP£25,678 per QALY. The ICER value at 95% confidence in the base case analysis was GBP£99,664 per QALY and GBP£50,549 per QALY in the lower cost analysis. Males had a 44% lower injury rate if they fell, compared to females resulting in a more favourable ICER for the women only analysis. For women only the ICER was GBP£22,986 per QALY in the base case and was below the cost-effectiveness threshold for all other variations of program implementation. The ICER value at 95% confidence was GBP£48,212 in the women only base case analysis and GBP£23,645 in the lower cost analysis. The base case incremental cost per fall averted was GBP£652 (GBP£616 for women only). A threshold analysis indicates that this exercise program cannot realistically break even.

CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that this exercise program is cost-effective for women only. There is no evidence to support its cost-effectiveness in a group of mixed gender unless the costs of program implementation are minimal. Conservative assumptions may have underestimated the true cost-effectiveness of the program.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of weight management in primary care

Background:  As obesity prevalence and health-care costs increase, Health Care providers must prevent and manage obesity cost-effectively.

Methods:  Using the 2006 NICE obesity health economic model, a primary care weight management programme (Counterweight) was analysed, evaluating costs and outcomes associated with weight gain for three obesity-related conditions (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, colon cancer). Sensitivity analyses examined different scenarios of weight loss and background (untreated) weight gain.

Results:  Mean weight changes in Counterweight attenders was −3 kg and −2.3 kg at 12 and 24 months, both 4 kg below the expected 1 kg/year background weight gain. Counterweight delivery cost was £59.83 per patient entered. Even assuming drop-outs/non-attenders at 12 months (55%) lost no weight and gained at the background rate, Counterweight was ‘dominant’ (cost-saving) under ‘base-case scenario’, where 12-month achieved weight loss was entirely regained over the next 2 years, returning to the expected background weight gain of 1 kg/year. Quality-adjusted Life-Year cost was £2017 where background weight gain was limited to 0.5 kg/year, and £2651 at 0.3 kg/year. Under a ‘best-case scenario’, where weights of 12-month-attenders were assumed thereafter to rise at the background rate, 4 kg below non-intervention trajectory (very close to the observed weight change), Counterweight remained ‘dominant’ with background weight gains 1 kg, 0.5 kg or 0.3 kg/year.

Conclusion:  Weight management for obesity in primary care is highly cost-effective even considering only three clinical consequences. Reduced healthcare resources use could offset the total cost of providing the Counterweight Programme, as well as bringing multiple health and Quality of Life benefits.