International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

Additions to the aggregate housing stock are a broad measure of the state of an economy and overall level of confidence in a particular region over a designated period. This is due to the direct and indirect effect (e.g. employment in the housing construction industry) upon on the local economy and is linked to the confidence of local households in the future direction of housing investment, the level of housing affordability by households as related to employment levels and the relationship between supply and demand in each region. Another consideration is the ability of the government to monitor and successfully intervene in the operation of the household market (e.g. mortgage interest rates) with the intent of restricting an over-supply situation which may take years to fully recover. The analysis in this section examines new housing commencements for Scotland, Australia, USA and Canada over an extended time period with the specific focus placed on the periods before, during and after the high profile global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The graph in Figure 1 was adapted from data sourced from The Scottish Government (2013) and covers the 15-year period between 1998 and 2012. With the exception of 1999 there were been relatively few years with substantial additions to the housing market. However, the effect of the GFC can clearly be observed post 2007 although by 2012 there was relatively change from the previous year.

Rating downgrade and the price impact of CDS spread on stock return

We investigate the time-varying informativeness of credit default swap (CDS) trading on stock returns for 302 US firms from July 2004 to August 2010. Using the Acharya and Johnson (2007) measure, we find that CDS trading becomes informative for an increasing number of firms as we approach the global financial crisis (GFC). Firm numbers gradually decline post-GFC, but remain high compared to the pre-GFC period. furthermore, CDS trading imposes the largest conditional price impact on firms that are recently downgraded, regardless of rating levels. Interestingly, this holds during and after the GFC, but not before. We offer two implications. First, despite post-GFC outcry against the CDS market, our results suggest it exhibits enhanced price discovery during the GFC. Second, our findings support criticism that, in the lead-up to the GFC, rating agencies are slow in downgrading firms. However, if downgrade decisions made during and after the GFC induce informed trading in the CDS market, this necessarily implies that during the midst of the GFC, rating agencies have got their act together.

Australian Unity Wellbeing Index survey 28.0 : The wellbeing of Australians - The impact of marriage : Report

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index monitors the subjective wellbeing of the Australian population. Our first survey was conducted in April 2001 and this report concerns the 28 th survey, undertaken in September 2012. Our previous survey had been conducted six months earlier in April. This intervening period corresponded to the 5 th year of the Labor Government, elected in November 2007. It was also marked by continuing apprehension at the unstable international financial situation, with serious problems in Europe. The Australian economy, however, appeared stable. 

Australian Unity Wellbeing Index survey 30.0 : The wellbeing of Australians – social media, personal achievement, and work : Report

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index monitors the subjective wellbeing of the Australian population. Our first survey was conducted in April 2001 and this report concerns the 30th survey, undertaken in August 2013. Our previous survey had been conducted four months earlier in April. This intervening period corresponded to the 6th year of the Labor Government, elected in November 2007. Shortly after data collection, on 7th September, an election took place at which Labor lost to the Liberal Party Coalition.
The share market had been stable for a couple of years, at a level well below its peak before the financial crisis. However, unemployment remained at about 5% and for those people with jobs, many were better-off financially due to cuts in interest rates, and so, in mortgage repayments.
Each survey involves a telephone interview with a new sample of 2,000 Australians, selected to represent the geographic distribution of the national population. These surveys comprise the Personal Wellbeing Index, which measures people’s satisfaction with their own lives, and the National Wellbeing Index, which measures how satisfied people are with life in Australia. Other items include a standard set of demographic questions and other survey-specific questions. The specific topics for Survey 30 are social media, personal achievement, and work conditions.

Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models

Construction price forecasting is an essential component to facilitate decision-making for construction contractors, investors and related financial institutions. Construction economists are increasingly interested in seeking a more analytical method to forecast construction prices. Although many studies have focused on construction price modelling and forecasting, few have considered the impacts of large-scale economic events and seasonality. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was employed. The impacts of global economic events and seasonality are factored into the model to forecast the construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that both long-run and dynamic short-term causal relationships exist among the price and levels of supply and demand in the construction market. These relationships drive the construction price and supply and demand, which interact with one another as a loop system. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The test results suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting the construction price, while the VEC model considering external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Does oil price volatility matter for Asian emerging economies?

This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators.

Arts governance: people, passion, performance

Since the crisis in governance which led to a shortage of capable board members, recent years have seen the emergence of the enterprising arts organisation - a development which has led to the need for new types of board members who have a greater understanding of 'mission, money and merit' within a cultural construct. This innovative book explores the world of the arts board member from the unique perspective of the cultural and creative industries. Using a wide range of research techniques including interviews with board members and stakeholders, board observations and case studies this book provides a rich and deep analysis from inside the boardroom. It provides in-depth insight into the changing pressures on arts boards after the financial crisis, and focuses uniquely on the role of passion on arts boards. Part of the Routledge Research in Creative and Cultural Industries Management series, written specifically for people seeking to develop their careers in cultural and creative management, this book is also for people working in and with arts organisations, in government and non-profit arts organisations. It will also be of interest to academics and researchers working in the wider corporate governance field.

Financialisation of official development assistance

Official Development Assistance is a significant global enterprise. Organsiations engaged in funding and implementing ODA (the bilateral donors, multilateral organsiations such as the World Bank and IMF) have unprecedented political and economic influence over a large number of sovereign developing countries. This paper analyses if, and how financialisation impacts on development aid, and implications for effective aid policy agendas, drawing on and linking critical debate on finacialisation, and ODA. Subsequent to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the persistence of the European Monitory Crisis (EMC), specific needs of developing countries became increasingly sub-ordinated to political and ideological power relations between ‘real’ economics and financial economics otherwise known as financialisation. The paper finds ‘financialisation’ as the ideological, political and economic catalyst for economic growth potentially confusing long-term development to combat poverty, and a short term need to overcome the lack of financial capacity in developing recipient countries. Sustainable economic development requires developing countries to forsake the pursuit of financialisation and to re-delineate their national finance, trade and investment regimes, and re-state it in a balanced manner as to take into account their unique economic development needs rather that the donor agencies’ demands and to advance their own ‘real’ economies.

Conclusion : democratising the history of democracy

The aim of The Secret History of Democracy has been to open debate on a larger view of democratic practice than that encapsulated by its wellknown standard history. The book came about from a concern that, while democracy was experiencing an ascendancy that began in the aftermath of the Second World War and intensified with the end of the Cold War, the global uptake of this particular form of governance came at the very moment when its limitations were becoming clearer: in its European and American heartlands there was less interest in participating in democracy; Clinton began in hope but ended in scandal; 9/11 was a victory for intolerance precisely because Western democracy restricted its own freedoms; the Bush, Blair and Howard governments became less relevant to their constituents and waged unpopular wars; the global financial crisis revealed democracy’s dependence on a flawed economic model; and difficulties in dealing with the global impact of climate change showed the limitations of national democracies, hostage to sectional interests. The exemplars of democracy were not having an easy time.

Economic resilience of regions under crises: a study of the Australian economy

Courvisanos J., Jain A. and Mardaneh K. Economic resilience of regions under crises: a study of the Australian economy, Regional Studies. Identifying patterns of economic resilience in regions by industry categories is the focus of this paper. Patterns emerge from adaptive capacity in four distinct functional groups of local government regions in Australia, in respect of their resilience from shocks on specific industries. A model of regional adaptive cycles around four sequential phases – reorganization, exploitation, conservation and release – is adopted as the framework for recognizing such patterns. A data-mining method utilizes a k-means algorithm to evaluate the impact of two major shocks – a 13-year drought and the Global Financial Crisis – on four functional groups of regions, using census data from 2001, 2006 and 2011.

Jail up; crime down does not justify Australia becoming an incarceration nation

The imprisonment rate in Australia is at unprecedented high levels, both interms of actual prisoner numbers and the rate at which it is increasing. Forthe first time in recorded history the incarceration rate in Australia has morethan doubled in less than 25 years. Prison is the harshest form ofpunishment in our system of justice and imposes considerable hardship onoffenders. It also comes at a considerable financial cost to the community.Accordingly, the surge in prisoner numbers is a significant macro social,economic and legal development. The increase did not occur pursuant to anoverarching strategic plan and is an area that is under-researched. Theprison population increase has arisen as a result of a ‘tough on crime’approach that continues without any sign of abatement. The use ofimprisonment should only be increased if there is a demonstrable benefit tothe community. This article examines whether there is a sound rationalebehind the rising trend in prison numbers. The increasing incarceration ratehas coincided with a significant reduction in the crime rate. A causalconnection between the two events (increased prisoner numbers andreduced crime) could constitute a powerful argument in favour of the surgein prison numbers. However, an examination of the empirical data inAustralia fails to demonstrate even a tenable link between these events. Wealso conclude that at the theoretical level there is no rationale for theincreased use of imprisonment. If the imprisonment rate continues to rise,there is a risk of a prison and financial crisis similar to that currently beingexperienced in the United States, which has resulted in an extremecounter-reaction in the form of a retrospective reduction of some prison terms.

Equity market price interactions between China and the other markets within the Chinese states equity markets

This study examines the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships of equity market prices in equity markets of Chinese states namely, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. I cover the period between October 5, 1992 and March 20, 2006, taking into account both the Asian financial crisis and the opening-up of China’s equity markets in recent years. First, I analysis the cointegration by utilizing Johansen’s (1988) cointegration tests. I find that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been established among Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taiwanese markets and, to a lesser degree, between these markets and the Singapore market since 1998. Secondly, this study examines causality by exploring the bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto non-causality tests. I find that there is strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between Shanghai and Shenzhen markets after 1998. Furthermore, I also find that there are more causal linkages between the Chinese states equity markets: two mainland Chinese markets, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore became more dependent on each other. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of my results.