Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Proportionality in sentencing: the need to factor in community experience, not public opinion

This is the first book to address the question of what role public opinion should play in the way criminal offenders are punished.Should public opinion determine—or even influence—sentencing policy and practice? Should the punishment of criminal offenders reflect what the public regards as appropriate? These deceptively simple questions conceal complex theoretical and methodological challenges to the administration of punishment.In the West, politicians have often answered these questions in the affirmative; penal reforms have been justified with direct reference to the attitudes of the public. This is why the contention that politicians should bridge the gap between the public and criminal justice practice has widespread resonance. Criminal law scholars, for their part, have often been more reluctant to accept public input in penal practice, and some have even held that the idea of consulting public opinion constitutes a populist approach to punishment.The purpose of this book is to examine the moral significance of public opinion for penal theory and practice. For the first time in a single volume the editors, Jesper Ryberg and Julian V. Roberts, have assembled a number of respected criminologists, philosphers, and legal theorists to address the various aspects of why and how public opinion should be reflected in the way the criminal justice system deals with criminals. The chapters address the myriad complexities surrounding this issue by first weighing the justifications for incorporating public views into punishment practices and then considering the various ways this might be achieved through juries, prosecutors, restoratifve justice programs, and other means.

A hybrid weighted aggregation method based on consistency and consensus in group decision making

A recent study in Science indicated that the confidence of a decision maker played an essential role in group decision making problems. In order to make use of the information of each individual's confidence of the current decision problem, a new hybrid weighted aggregation method to solve a group decision making peoblem is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the hybrid weight of each expert is generated by a convex combination of his/her subjective experience-based weight and objective problem-domain-based weight. The experience-based weight is derived from the expert's historical experiences and the problem-domain-based weight is characterized by the confidence degree and consensus degree of each expert's opinions in the current decision making process. Based on the hybrid weighted aggregation method, all the experts' opinions which are expressed in the form of fuzzy preference relations are consequently aggregated to obtain a collective group opinion. Some valuable properities of the proposed method are discussed. A nurse manager hiring problem in a hospital is employed to illustrate that the proposed method provides a rational and valid solution for the group decision making problem when the experts are not willing to change their initial preferences, or the cost of change is high due to time limitation.

Expert in my pocket: creating first person POV videos to enhance mobile learning

Worldwide, there has been a rapid increase in both the use of mobile technologies as a conduit for student learning and the use of wearable cameras to record sporting and recreational activities. The Expert in My Pocket project (EiMP) has combined these two technologies to produce a repository of freely available short videos and supporting materials to enhance student development of psychomotor clinical skills. The videos are presented from a first person point of view (1PPOV) with expert health professionals ‘thinking aloud’ as they demonstrate selected skills. Research indicates that students and educators overwhelmingly support the concept of EiMP videos and more importantly value the 1PPOV as an authentic view. This paper demonstrates the techniques and equipment employed to produce these videos, which consisted of a chest or head mounted GoPro camera operated via an iPad. Additionally, the paper explains another innovative feature, Quick Response (QR) Codes, that when linked to the videos placed on equipment assists with “just in time” mobile learning.

Psychologists as expert witnesses in Australian courtrooms

Mental health professionals assist Australian courts and tribunals with explanations about human behaviour and mental processes related to offending behaviour. Contrary to other witnesses who are only allowed to give evidence in relation to what they directly heard or saw, mental health professionals are allowed to express opinions because they are recognised as expert witnesses with specialised knowledge. However, in Australia at least, little is known about how these expert witnesses are chosen and how they meet the requirements of possessing “specialised knowledge”. In this article, we provide a brief history of expert witnesses in the courtroom, including the use of psychologists as expert witnesses. We then highlight some of the concerns that legal professionals have raised about psychologists as expert witnesses in the limited number of studies that have been conducted in Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Finally, we raise questions about how psychologists are chosen to be expert witnesses in Australia and introduce directions for future research.

The Therapist as Client as Expert

`I enjoyed this book, and think that it should find a grateful and attentive readership in the practical field as well as being a central text in academic settings.

Occupational therapy with people with depression: using nominal group technique to collate clinician opinion

AIMS: This aim of this study was to obtain a consensus from clinicians regarding occupational therapy for people with depression, for the assessments and practices they use that are not currently supported by research evidence directly related to functional performance. The study also aimed to discover how many of these assessments and practices were currently supported by research evidence.

METHODS: Following a previously reported systematic review of assessments and practices used in occupational therapy for people with depression, a modified nominal group technique was used to discover which assessments and practices occupational therapists currently utilize. Three online surveys gathered initial data on therapeutic options (survey 1), which were then ranked (survey 2) and re-ranked (survey 3) to gain the final consensus. Twelve therapists completed the first survey, whilst 10 clinicians completed both the second and third surveys.

MAJOR FINDINGS: Only 30% of the assessments and practices identified by the clinicians were supported by research evidence. A consensus was obtained on a total of 35 other assessments and interventions. These included both occupational-therapy-specific and generic assessments and interventions. Principle conclusion. Very few of the assessments and interventions identified were supported by research evidence directly related to functional performance. While a large number of options were generated, the majority of these were not occupational therapy specific.

Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Aim: The koala is a widely distributed Australian marsupial with regional populations that are in rapid decline, are stable or have increased in size. This study examined whether it is possible to use expert elicitation to estimate abundance and trends of populations of this species. Diverse opinions exist about estimates of abundance and, consequently, the status of populations. Location: Eastern and south-eastern Australia Methods: Using a structured, four-step question format, a panel of 15 experts estimated population sizes of koalas and changes in those sizes for bioregions within four states. They provided their lowest plausible estimate, highest plausible estimate, best estimate and their degree of confidence that the true values were contained within these upper and lower estimates. We derived estimates of the mean population size of koalas and associated uncertainties for each bioregion and state. Results: On the basis of estimates of mean population sizes for each bioregion and state, we estimated that the total number of koalas for Australia is 329,000 (range 144,000-605,000) with an estimated average decline of 24% over the past three generations and the next three generations. Estimated percentage of loss in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was 53%, 26%, 14% and 3%, respectively. Main conclusions: It was not necessary to achieve high levels of certainty or consensus among experts before making informed estimates. A quantitative, scientific method for deriving estimates of koala populations and trends was possible, in the absence of empirical data on abundances.