Influence operations and behavioural change

The intended outcome of Information Operations appears to be a favourable change (to the instigator) in attitudes or belief systems of the target, however, the relationship between attitude and behaviour is tenuous. Propaganda and other methods of ‘influence’ are difficult to assess as the cause and effect relationship is complicated. The short term effects of psychological warfare where force is used in conjunction with influence techniques can be easily assessed; at least at a superficial level. Even in the latter case, the actual causes and effects could be solely the force used or some other factors rather than the psychological techniques per se. Influence Operations attempt to win the hearts and minds of the target audience but, even if successful, the lasting effects of a campaign are problematic. It is further complicated because if a person has a particular view, it does not mean that the ensuing behaviours will reflect that view. Also, there is evidence that the use of force on one set of people produces attitudes and behaviours that instigate radical beliefs and behaviours in another set. So psychological warfare techniques on one group that may or may not produce compliant behaviour stimulates another group to empathise with the victims thus producing an overall practical negative influence. Influence campaigns cannot be separated from the physical environment in which they are executed. If good politics requires good influence campaigns then good influence campaigns require good politics to back them up. This paper will examine the relationships between short term influence campaigns and compare them with the more long term socialising effects such as early education, family and physical attributes that have on attitudes and beliefs which result in the development of such behaviours as terrorism.

Behavioural responses of Australian fur seals to boat-based ecotourism

This study examined Australian fur seal behavioural responses to boat approaches at breeding colonies in Bass Straight. Results indicated that responses varied based on previous exposure to boats, approach distance, and time of day, and provided valuable information to management agencies regarding the effective management of ecotourism.

Differentiating malware from cleanware using behavioural analysis

This paper proposes a scalable approach for distinguishing malicious files from clean files by investigating the behavioural features using logs of various API calls. We also propose, as an alternative to the traditional method of manually identifying malware files, an automated classification system using runtime features of malware files. For both projects, we use an automated tool running in a virtual environment to extract API call features from executables and apply pattern recognition algorithms and statistical methods to differentiate between files. Our experimental results, based on a dataset of 1368 malware and 456 cleanware files, provide an accuracy of over 97% in distinguishing malware from cleanware. Our techniques provide a similar accuracy for classifying malware into families. In both cases, our results outperform comparable previously published techniques.

Modelling behavioural and fitness consequences of disturbance for geese along their spring flyway

1. For migratory birds the implications of environmental change may be difficult to predict because they use multiple sites during their annual cycle. Moreover, the migrants’ use of these sites may be interdependent. Along the flyway of the Svalbard pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus population, Norwegian farmers use organized scaring to minimize goose use of their grasslands in spring. We assessed the consequences of this practice for regional site use of pink-footed geese along their spring migration route.

2. We used dynamic programming to find the sequence of migratory decisions that maximizes the fitness of female geese during spring migration, assuming scaring impinges on both food-intake rates and predation risk. The parameterization of the model was based on data gathered from individually marked pink-footed geese between 1991 and 2003.

3. The effect of scaring in terms of fitness and site use was most noticeable regarding food-intake rate. Scaring resulted in a redistribution of geese along the flyway. Furthermore, the outcomes of the modelling exercises were highly dependent on whether or not the geese were omniscient or naive: at moderate scaring levels naive geese were predicted to succumb.

4. On a qualitative basis there was good correspondence between the predictions from the model and the empirical evidence gathered to date.

5. Synthesis and applications. Besides highlighting the importance of learning and changing behaviour in an adaptive fashion, our modelling exercise indicated the potential vulnerability of the geese to abrupt environmental change. In addition, the exercise emphasized the interdependence of site use along the migratory flyway. The model supports the necessity for an integrated flyway management approach. In Norway, discussion is ongoing about the future management of the spring conflict between farming interests and geese. Farmers in north and mid-Norway have announced that they will expand the scaring campaign if a long-term solution, including a compensation scheme, is not forthcoming. If scaring on such a large scale is implemented abruptly, it may have severe consequences for the population: management of both the scaring intensity and its geographical extent is urgently required.

Explanations for variation in cognitive ability : behavioural ecology meets comparative cognition

Sara Shettleworth has played a defining role in the development of animal cognition and its integration into other parts of biology, especially behavioural ecology. Here we chart some of that progress in understanding the causes and importance of variation in cognitive ability and highlight how Tinbergen's levels of explanation provide a useful framework for this field. We also review how experimental design is crucial in investigating cognition and stress the need for naturalistic experiments and field studies. We focus particularly on the example of the relationship among food hoarding, spatial cognition and hippocampal structure, and review the conflicting evidence for sex differences in spatial cognition. We finish with speculation that a combination of Tinbergen and Shettleworth-style approaches would be the way to grapple with the as-yet unanswered questions of why birds mimic heterospecifics.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors : an economic modelling study from Australia

Background
A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.
Methods
Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.
Results
Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.
Conclusions
Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

Using brand knowledge to predict beer brand preference and loyalty for samples of new frequent users in Perth and Beijing

This study tests a model of Brand Knowledge and Brand Equity of brands of beer on new and frequent users in two populations that differ in their stage of the beer product life cycle and culture. Using Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) and Binomial Logistic Regression (BLR), models based on the respondents' Brand Knowledge are able to correctly identify Chinese respondents’ preferred brand of beer 56% of the time, while correctly identifying 77% of respondents in an Australian sample when three top brands are tested. The model could further identify 67% of those that stay or switch in both the Australian and the Chinese samples.

The influence of cultural values on brand loyalty

It is well documented that culture can influence consumer attitudes and behavior. While there have been numerous studies on how culture influences the four Ps of the marketing mix, few researchers have examined its effect on customer loyalty. More specifically, how consumers who identify more with certain cultural traits are likely to be more brand loyal. Using Hofstede’s cultural dimensions, this study empirically examines cultural effects on consumer-reported “proneness” to brand loyalty and finds that those who scored highly in individualism and uncertainty avoidance have greater affinity for exhibiting loyalty to a brand.

Behavioural and physical characteristics associated with vitamin D status in women

For most people in Australia, the primary source of vitamin D is casual exposure to sunlight. Hypovitaminosis D has been reported for high-risk populations, but little has been documented for women of all ages living in the community. Using cross-sectional data, we aimed to describe physical and behavioural characteristics associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) for such women and to determine the association of serum 25OHD with hypertension and bone health. Serum 25OHD, parathyroid hormone (PTH), blood pressure, bone mineral density (BMD) and anthropometry were measured in a random sample of 861 women aged 20–92 years enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, set in a temperate region at latitude 38–39°S. Lifestyle factors (including diet, smoking, medication use, socio-economic status, residence, education, occupation, and physical activity) were documented by questionnaire. In season-adjusted models for women aged 20–54 years, physical activity and living with a partner were independently and positively associated with serum 25OHD; associations with weight and waist–hip ratio were negative. Among older women, physical activity, vitamin D intake and urban dwelling were positively associated with serum 25OHD; age, weight and smoking were negative. Compared with the lowest tertile, those in the highest serum 25OHD tertile were less likely to have elevated serum PTH (adjusted OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.16–0.41) and high blood pressure (adjusted OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.22–0.72), and more likely to have normal hip and spine BMD (adjusted OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.08–2.52). In multivariable models adjusting for season, age, weight (and height), BMD was associated with serum 25OHD at the spine, hip and whole body; no associations were detected at the forearm and no other characteristics were identified as confounders. Factors associated with high vitamin D status generally reflected healthy body habitus and active lifestyles. In contrast, excessive weight and smoking were associated with poorer vitamin D status. Women with high vitamin D were less likely to have elevated PTH, hypertension or bone deficits than women with poor levels.