Construction of neural network-based prediction intervals for short-term electrical load forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is of great importance for control and scheduling of electrical power systems. The uncertainty of power systems increases due to the random nature of climate and the penetration of the renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in datasets. To quantify these potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly proposed method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied to develop PIs using NN models. The primary multi-objective problem is firstly transformed into a constrained single-objective problem. This new problem formulation is closer to the original problem and has fewer parameters than the cost function. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Two case studies from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia) historical load datasets are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Demonstrated results show that the proposed method can construct high quality PIs for load forecasting applications.

Voltage oscillations in power distribution networks in the presence of DFIGs and induction motor loads

This paper investigates the oscillatory behavior of power distribution systems in the presence of distributed generation. The analysis is carried out over a distribution test system with two doubly fed induction type wind generators and different types of induction motor loads. The system is linearized by the perturbation method. Eigenvalues are calculated to see the modal interaction within the system. The study indicates that interactions between closely placed converter controllers and induction motor loads significantly influence the damping of the oscillatory modes of the system. The critical modes have a frequency of oscillation between the electromechanical and subsynchronous oscillations of power systems. Time-domain simulations are carried out to verify the validity of the modal analysis and to provide a physical feel for the types of oscillations that occur in distribution systems. Finally, significant parameters of the system that affect the damping and frequency of the oscillation are identified.

A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources

The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRESs) into power grids has increased in the last decade. Integration of wind farms and solar systems as the major IRESs have significantly boosted the level of uncertainty in operation of power systems. This paper proposes a comprehensive computational framework for quantification and integration of uncertainties in distributed power systems (DPSs) with IRESs. Different sources of uncertainties in DPSs such as electrical load, wind and solar power forecasts and generator outages are covered by the proposed framework. Load forecast uncertainty is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Wind and solar forecast are implemented by a list of prediction intervals (PIs) ranging from 5% to 95%. Their uncertainties are further represented as scenarios using a scenario generation method. Generator outage uncertainty is modeled as discrete scenarios. The integrated uncertainties are further incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem and a heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve this stochastic SCUC problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are implemented. Generation costs as well as different reserve strategies are discussed from the perspectives of system economics and reliability. Comparative results indicate that the planned generation costs and reserves are different from the realized ones. The stochastic models show better robustness than deterministic ones. Power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours.

A modified fuzzy min-max neural network for data clustering and its application to power quality monitoring

When no prior knowledge is available, clustering is a useful technique for categorizing data into meaningful groups or clusters. In this paper, a modified fuzzy min-max (MFMM) clustering neural network is proposed. Its efficacy for tackling power quality monitoring tasks is demonstrated. A literature review on various clustering techniques is first presented. To evaluate the proposed MFMM model, a performance comparison study using benchmark data sets pertaining to clustering problems is conducted. The results obtained are comparable with those reported in the literature. Then, a real-world case study on power quality monitoring tasks is performed. The results are compared with those from the fuzzy c-means and k-means clustering methods. The experimental outcome positively indicates the potential of MFMM in undertaking data clustering tasks and its applicability to the power systems domain.

A comparative study of different power system stabilizers for dynamic stability analysis

Power system stabilizers (PSSs) are extensively used to ensure the dynamic stability of power systems through the modulation of excitation signals supplied to synchronous generators. This paper presents a comparative study of two different PSSs: STAB1 and IEEEST. The stabilizers are designed for the linearized model of a single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system with different loads. Both time-and frequency-domain simulations are carried out to investigate the performance of these stabilizers. For all PSSs, the time-domain simulations are performed by applying a three-phase short-circuit fault at the terminal of the synchronous generator. These simulation results are compared against the open-loop characteristics of the SMIB system where no PSS is implemented. Simulation results demonstrate that the speed-fed PSS provides more damping as compared to frequency- and power-fed stabilizers.

A new fuzzy-based combined prediction interval for wind power forecasting

This paper makes use of the idea of prediction intervals (PIs) to capture the uncertainty associated with wind power generation in power systems. Since the forecasting errors cannot be appropriately modeled using distribution probability functions, here we employ a powerful nonparametric approach called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to construct the PIs. The proposed LUBE method uses a new framework based on a combination of PIs to overcome the performance instability of neural networks (NNs) used in the LUBE method. Also, a new fuzzy-based cost function is proposed with the purpose of having more freedom and flexibility in adjusting NN parameters used for construction of PIs. In comparison with the other cost functions in the literature, this new formulation allows the decision-makers to apply their preferences for satisfying the PI coverage probability and PI normalized average width individually. As the optimization tool, bat algorithm with a new modification is introduced to solve the problem. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method are examined using datasets taken from different wind farms in Australia.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Renewable energy integration : challenges and solutions

This book presents different aspects of renewable energy integration, from the latest developments in renewable energy technologies to the currently growing smart grids. The importance of different renewable energy sources is discussed, in order to identify the advantages and challenges for each technology. The rules of connecting the renewable energy sources have also been covered along with practical examples. Since solar and wind energy are the most popular forms of renewable energy sources, this book provides the challenges of integrating these renewable generators along with some innovative solutions. As the complexity of power system operation has been raised due to the renewable energy integration, this book also includes some analysis to investigate the characteristics of power systems in a smarter way. This book is intended for those working in the area of renewable energy integration in distribution networks.

Prediction interval estimation for wind farm power generation forecasts using support vector machines

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is quite an important as well as challenging task for the system operators and market participants due to its high uncertainty. It is essential to quantify uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts for their efficient application in optimal management of wind farms and integration into power systems. Prediction intervals (PIs) are well known statistical tools which are used to quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future target variables. This paper investigates the application of a novel support vector machine based methodology to directly estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PIs without expensive computational burden and inaccurate assumptions about the distribution of the data. The efficiency of the method for uncertainty quantification is examined using monthly data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for short term application are generated with a confidence level of 90%. Experimental results confirm the ability of the method in constructing reliable PIs without resorting to complex computational methods.