The use of heuristics in valuation practice : implications in a changing market

Despite the existence of prescribed frameworks, valuation remains a cause of much controversy and variety of opinion. It does not matter whether procedures are undertaken in exactly the same way, the conclusion of ‘value’ will vary from valuer to valuer – sometimes considerably. This uncertainty within valuation is founded on property’s heterogeneous nature and the imperfect market that is the property market; in addition to the unpredictability of human behaviour in making judgements (French and Gabrielli 2004). Uncertainty, in valuation is found in the amalgam of locational, physical and legal characteristics and innumerable other forces which control and energise the property market (Whipple 1995). Particular irregular occurrences, or drastic changes in property markets, from either within market evolution or external forces, for example the creation of global financial markets, cause further uncertainty for valuers and provides challenges in identifying ‘market value’ in valuation practice. The praxis of valuation in a commercial sense navigates this complexity using a combination of algorithms and heuristics to identify the value of a property. The application of theoretical mathematical algorithms based on economic theory (Brown 1995), is augmented by valuers’ ability to apply appropriate adjustment based on their knowledge of the market, their ability to analyse, assess and compare the attributes of a property in comparison to its market, and their practical experience (Sliogeriene 2008). Despite the necessity of algorithms, the application of appropriate adjustments and assumptions are important in arriving at a value. This paper is a critical reflection on the basis of valuation practice as guided by standards, methods, and ethics (algorithms), and the use of heuristics in practice. This is important because changes within property markets challenge the inter-relationship between these two aspects of valuation practice. Through the authors’ industry experience and a review of previous research and statements of practice norms this paper provides an analysis of the ability of valuers to address market change in their valuation practices.

Sustainability - the crucial challenge for the valuation profession

Valuation has a pivotal role in increasing the level of sustainability in the built environment. To date, sustainability has received limited attention in valuation practice, and as a result the relationship between sustainability and market value has not been clearly defined. As a consequence, the commercial investment community are hesitant to invest in sustainability beyond best practice management techniques. Valuers’ lack of acknowledgement of sustainability in valuation practice and its changing role in property investment in the built environment, has had a potentially detrimental impact by limiting investment in sustainability in commercial property. Consequently, this lack of acknowledgment and incorporation of sustainability in practice has the potential to cause chaos within the market in the future. It was found that valuers, per se, are inexperienced and have limited knowledge of sustainability in commercial property. Due to differences between generations of valuers, this paper examines whether ‘younger’ valuers’1 knowledge of sustainability, as a concept, measurement and any possible relationship with market value is more extensive than senior valuers. Or whether senior valuers experiences in the market are more sensitive to the change sustainability is having in the commercial property market. A key issue for the profession concerning sustainability and its effect on the market is the limited channels for knowledge development. The implications of this research are the need for increased curriculum in university education, so knowledge dissemination across the profession can be achieved. The development of knowledge of sustainability and its relationship in commercial property will progress the incorporation of sustainability in valuation practice. As a consequence, this will increase the investment in sustainability in the commercial property market.

Virtual property theft detection framework

 The issue of virtual property theft in virtual worlds is a serious problem which has ramifications in both the real and virtual world. Virtual world users invest a considerable amount of time, effort and often money to collect virtual property items, only to have them stolen by thieves. Many virtual property thefts go undetected, with thieves often stealing virtual property items without resistance, leaving victims to discover the theft only after it has occurred. This paper presents the design of a detection framework that uses an algorithm for identifying virtual property theft at two key stages: account intrusion and unauthorized virtual property trades. Initial tests of this framework on a synthetic data set show an 80% detection rate with no false positives. This framework can allow virtual world developers to tailor and extend it to suit their specific virtual world software and provide an effective way of detecting virtual property theft while being a low maintenance, user friendly and cost effective.

Optimization of gaussian fuzzy membership functions and evaluation of the monotonicity property of fuzzy inference systems

In this paper, two issues relating to modeling of a monotonicity-preserving Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) are examined. The first is on designing or tuning of Gaussian Membership Functions (MFs) for a monotonic FIS. Designing Gaussian MFs for an FIS is difficult because of its spreading and curvature characteristics. In this study, the sufficient conditions are exploited, and the procedure of designing Gaussian MFs is formulated as a constrained optimization problem. The second issue is on the testing procedure for a monotonic FIS. As such, a testing procedure for a monotonic FIS model is proposed. Applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real world industrial application, i.e., Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. The results obtained are analysis and discussed. The outcomes show that the proposed approach is useful in designing a monotonicity-preserving FIS model.

Direct versus search engine traffic : an innovative approach to demand analysis in the property market

Purpose – The application of “Google” econometrics (Geco) has evolved rapidly in recent years and can be applied in various fields of research. Based on accepted theories in existing economic literature, this paper seeks to contribute to the innovative use of research on Google search query data to provide a new innovative to property research.

Design/methodology/approach – In this study, existing data from Google Insights for Search (GI4S) is extended into a new potential source of consumer sentiment data based on visits to a commonly-used UK online real-estate agent platform (Rightmove.co.uk). In order to contribute to knowledge about the use of Geco's black box, namely the unknown sampling population and the specific search queries influencing the variables, the GI4S series are compared to direct web navigation.

Findings – The main finding from this study is that GI4S data produce immediate real-time results with a high level of reliability in explaining the future volume of transactions and house prices in comparison to the direct website data. Furthermore, the results reveal that the number of visits to Rightmove.co.uk is driven by GI4S data and vice versa, and indeed without a contemporaneous relationship.

Originality/value – This study contributes to the new emerging and innovative field of research involving search engine data. It also contributes to the knowledge base about the increasing use of online consumer data in economic research in property markets.

The market for corporate control: the case of Australian listed property

 This study investigates the underlying motivation(s) for mergers and acquisitions in the Australian Real Estate Investment Trust sector. Results across the three periods of pre-, during and post-announcement show that mergers and acquisitions create synergistic benefits for both targets and bidders.

Property portfolio composition and earnings management for listed property portfolios

In this paper, we investigate how real estate portfolio composition impacts earnings management (EM) of New Zealand listed property portfolios (NZ-LPPs). We employ a panel dataset containing accounting and property data for NZ-LPPs. The findings include: (1) the office property ratio of the real estate portfolio provides the highest incentive for LPPs to engage in EM; (2) LPPs with a higher ratio of industry are less likely to use accrual EM and real EM approaches based on property transactions; and (3) LPPs with a hospital focus prefer accrual EM, while LPPs with a retail focus prefer long-term accrual EM and sales manipulation.