Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels

Objective To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

Contribution of climate and air pollution to variation in coronary heart disease mortality rates in England

There are substantial geographic variations in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England that may in part be due to differences in climate and air pollution. An ecological cross-sectional multi-level analysis of male and female CHD mortality rates in all wards in England (1999–2004) was conducted to estimate the relative strength of the association between CHD mortality rates and three aspects of the physical environment - temperature, hours of sunshine and air quality. Models were adjusted for deprivation, an index measuring the healthiness of the lifestyle of populations, and urbanicity. In the fully adjusted model, air quality was not significantly associated with CHD mortality rates, but temperature and sunshine were both significantly negatively associated (p<0.05), suggesting that CHD mortality rates were higher in areas with lower average temperature and hours of sunshine. After adjustment for the unhealthy lifestyle of populations and deprivation, the climate variables explained at least 15% of large scale variation in CHD mortality rates. The results suggest that the climate has a small but significant independent association with CHD mortality rates in England.

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

Background
Despite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Findings
In a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.

Conclusions
There is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting.
Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers.
Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

Co-morbid cardiovascular disease and depression : sequence of disease onset is linked to mental but not physical self-rated health. Results from a cross-sectional, population-based study

Purpose: Self-rated health has been linked to important health and survival outcomes in individuals with co-morbid depression and cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is not clear how the timing of depression onset relative to CVD onset affects this relationship. We aimed to first identify the prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) preceding CVD and secondly determine whether sequence of disease onset is associated with mental and physical self-rated health. Methods: This study utilised cross-sectional, populationbased data from 224 respondents of the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB). Participants were those diagnosed with MDD and reported ever having a heart/circulatory condition over their lifetime. Age of onset was reported for each condition. Logistic regression was used to explore differences in self-rated mental and physical health for those reporting pre-cardiac and post-cardiac depression. Results: The proportion of individuals in whom MDD preceded CVD was 80.36% (CI: 72.57-88.15). One-fifth (19.64%, CI: 11.85-27.42) reported MDD onset at the time of, or following, CVD. After controlling for covariates, the final model demonstrated that those reporting post-cardiac depression were significantly less likely to report poor selfrated mental health (OR:0.36, CI: 0.14-0.93) than those with pre-existing depression. No significant differences were found in self-rated physical health between groups (OR:0.90 CI: 0.38-2.14). Conclusions: MDD is most common prior to the onset of CVD. Further, there is an association between pre-morbid MDD and poorer self-rated mental health. To our knowledge, this is the first time this has been demonstrated in a national, population-based survey. As self-rated health has been shown to predict important outcomes such as survival, we recommend that those with MDD be identified as vulnerable to CVD onset and poorer health outcomes

The neuroprogressive nature of major depressive disorder: pathways to disease evolution and resistance, and therapeutic implications

In some patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), individual illness characteristics appear consistent with those of a neuroprogressive illness. Features of neuroprogression include poorer symptomatic, treatment and functional outcomes in patients with earlier disease onset and increased number and length of depressive episodes. In such patients, longer and more frequent depressive episodes appear to increase vulnerability for further episodes, precipitating an accelerating and progressive illness course leading to functional decline. Evidence from clinical, biochemical and neuroimaging studies appear to support this model and are informing novel therapeutic approaches. This paper reviews current knowledge of the neuroprogressive processes that may occur in MDD, including structural brain consequences and potential molecular mechanisms including the role of neurotransmitter systems, inflammatory, oxidative and nitrosative stress pathways, neurotrophins and regulation of neurogenesis, cortisol and the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis modulation, mitochondrial dysfunction and epigenetic and dietary influences. Evidence-based novel treatments informed by this knowledge are discussed.

Cost effectiveness of a general practice chronic disease management plan for coronary heart disease in Australia

Background. The cost effectiveness of a general practice-based program for managing coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in Australia remains uncertain. We have explored this through an economic model.

Methods. A secondary prevention program based on initial clinical assessment and 3 monthly review, optimising of pharmacotherapies and lifestyle modification, supported by a disease registry and financial incentives for quality of care and outcomes achieved was assessed in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), in Australian dollars per disability adjusted life year (DALY) prevented.

Results. Based on 2006 estimates, 263 487 DALYs were attributable to CHD in Australia. The proposed program would add $115 650 000 to the annual national heath expenditure. Using an estimated 15% reduction in death and disability and a 40% estimated program uptake, the program’s ICER is $8081 per DALY prevented. With more conservative estimates of effectiveness and uptake, estimates of up to $38 316 per DALY are observed in sensitivity analysis.

Conclusions. Although innovation in CHD management promises improved future patient outcomes, many therapies and strategies proven to reduce morbidity and mortality are available today. A general practice-based program for the optimal application of current therapies is likely to be cost-effective and provide substantial and sustainable benefits to the Australian community.

What is known about this topic? Chronic disease management programs are known to provide gains with respect to reductions in death and disability among patients with coronary heart disease. The cost effectiveness of such programs in the Australian context is not known.

What does this paper add? This paper suggests that implementing a coronary heart disease program in Australia is highly cost-effective across a broad range of assumptions of uptake and effectiveness.

What are the implications for practitioners? These data provide the economic rationale for the implementation of a chronic disease management program with a disease registry and regular review in Australia.

Measurement issues in the evaluation of chronic disease self-management programs

Objectives: 

Role of increased CD8/CD28null T cells and alternative co-stimulatory molecules in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic inflammatory lung disease; it is a leading cause of death and existing treatments have no proven disease-modifying effect. The mechanisms underlying this resistance are largely unknown, but suggest the presence of some self-maintaining pathogenic process, possibly initiated by cigarette smoking, that prevents the normal resolution of inflammation. We have previously reported increased production of proinflammatory cytokines and granzyme b by CD8⁺ T cells in COPD; costimulatory receptor/ligand interactions required include CD80:86/CD28, B7-1/CTLA4, 4-1BB/1BBL and OX40/OX40L. We hypothesized that a dysregulated expression/function of these molecules may play a role in inflammatory/autoimmune components of COPD. We analysed T cell co-stimulatory molecules in blood from 34 controls, 15 smokers and 48 COPD subjects. We assessed the potential functional relevance of CD8/CD28^null cells in COPD by measuring their production of proinflammatory cytokines, co-stimulatory molecules, granzyme and perforin. A smoke-exposed murine model was applied to investigate the relative expression of CD8/CD28^null T cells in blood, lung tissue and airway. CD8/CD28^null cells were increased in both current- and ex-smoker COPD groups; these cells expressed significantly more interferon (IFN)-γ, OX40, 4-1BB, CTLA4, granzyme and perforin when stimulated than CD8/CD28⁺ T cells. There were no changes in CD4/CD28^null T cells. In mice exposed to cigarette smoke for 12 weeks, CD8/CD28^null T cells were significantly increased in the airway with a trend for an increase in lung tissue and blood. Increased production of proinflammatory cytokines and expression of alternative co-stimulatory molecules by CD8/CD28^null T cells may play a role in inflammatory or autoimmune responses in COPD and identify therapeutic targets.

Determinants of health-related quality of life in people with Parkinson’s disease: a path analysis

Purpose:
To identify the demographic factors, impairments and activity limitations that contribute to health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in people with idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (PD).

Method:
Two hundred and ten individuals with idiopathic PD who participated in the baseline assessment of a randomized clinical trial were included. The Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire-39 summary index was used to quantify HRQOL. In order to provide greater clarity regarding the determinants of HRQOL, path analysis was used to explore the relationships between the various predictors in relation to the functioning and disability framework of the International Classification of Functioning model.

Results:
The two models of HRQOL that were examined in this study had a reasonable fit with the data. Activity limitations were found to be the strongest predictor of HRQOL. Limitations in performing self-care activities contributed the most to HRQOL in Model 1 (β = 0.38; p < 0.05), while limitations in functional mobility had the largest contribution in Model 2 (β = −0.31; p < 0.0005). Self-reported history of falls was also found to have a significant and direct relationship with HRQOL in both models (Model 1 β = −0.11; p < 0.05; Model 2 β = −0.21; p < 0.05).

Conclusions:
Health-related quality of life in PD is associated with self-care limitations, mobility limitations, self-reported history of falls and disease duration. Understanding how these factors are inter-related may assist clinicians focus their assessments and develop strategies that aim to minimize the negative functional and social sequelae of this debilitating disease.

Health-related quality of life of Australians with Parkinson disease : a comparison with international studies

Purpose: This study describes the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of Australians living with Parkinson disease (PD) and compares the findings to international reports.
Methods: The Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire-39 (PDQ-39) was used to measure HRQOL in 210 individuals with PD living in Australia. In parallel, a tailored literature search identified previous studies on HROQL in people with PD. A quantitative meta-analysis with a random-effects model was used to compare the HRQOL of individuals with PD living in Australia and other countries.
Results : The mean PDQ-39 summary index (SI) score for this sample of Australians with PD was 20.9 (SD 12.7). Ratings for the dimension of social support and stigma were significantly lower than ratings for bodily discomfort, mobility, activities of daily living, cognition, and emotional well-being. Comparing the Australian and international PD samples revealed a significant heterogeneity in overall HRQOL (I² = 97%). The mean PDQ-39 SI scores for Australians were lower, indicating better HRQOL relative
to samples from other countries.
Conclusions: This Australian sample with PD perceived their HRQOL as poor, although it was less severely compromised than that of international samples. While further research is required, these findings can inform the clinical decision-making processes of physiotherapists

Risk factors for recurrent Mycobacterium ulcerans disease after exclusive surgical treatment in an Australian cohort

Objective: To describe risk factors for recurrence after exclusive surgical treatment of Mycobacterium ulcerans infection. Design, setting and participants: Prospective observational cohort study of all M. ulcerans cases managed with surgery alone at Barwon Health, a tertiary referral hospital, from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2011. A random-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess rates and associations of treatment failure. Main outcome measures: Rates of treatment failure and rate ratios (RRs) for factors associated with treatment failure. Results: Of 192 patients with M. ulcerans infection, 50 (26%) had exclusive surgical treatment. Median age was 65.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 45.5-77.7 years), and median duration of symptoms was 46 days (IQR, 26-90 days). There were 20 recurrences in 16 patients. For first lesions, the recurrence incidence rate was 41.8 (95% CI, 25.6-68.2) per 100 person-years, and median time to recurrence was 50 days (IQR, 30-171 days). Recurrence occurred ≤ 3 cm from the original lesion in 13 cases, and >3 cm in nine. On univariable analysis, age ≥60 years (RR 13.84; 95% CI, 2.21-86.68; P< 0.01), distal lesions (RR, 20.43; 95% CI, 1.97-212.22; P<0.01), positive histological margins (RR, 21.02; 95% CI, 5.51-80.26; P< 0.001), immunosuppression (RR, 17.97; 95% CI, 4.17-77.47; P <0.01) and duration of symptoms >75 days (RR, 10.13; 95% CI, 1.76-58.23; P =0.02) were associated with treatment failure. On multivariable analysis, positive margins (RR, 7.72; 95% CI, 2.71-22.01; P<0.001) and immunosuppression (RR, 6.45; 95% CI, 2.42-17.20; P =0.01) remained associated with treatment failure. Conclusions: Recurrence rates after exclusive surgical treatment of M. ulcerans disease in an Australian cohort are high, with increased rates associated with immunosuppression or positive histological margins.