Freshwater influences on hydrology and seagrass dynamics of intermittent estuaries

Many temperate estuaries have intermittently open and closed mouths, a feature that is often related to intermittent freshwater input. These systems, often overlooked due to their small size, can have large hydrological variability over medium-term time scales.

This variability presents potential difficulties for estuarine species particularly where anthropogenic alterations to freshwater flows can cause large deviations from natural patterns of tidal influence and inundation of habitat.

Influences of natural and hydrological variability on seagrasses were examined in two central Victorian estuaries with anthropogenically-modified but naturally-intermittent freshwater flows and mouth openings. Comparisons were focused on differences between an estuary with artificially-augmented freshwater inflow and an adjacent system, in which the volume and timing of inflows were altered by a reservoir. Eight additional estuaries in the region were also used to provide a context for these two main sites.

Hydrological changes during the three-year field component were affected by the ending of a drought and then a major flood a year later as well as by ongoing anthropogenic flow reduction and augmentation. These influences on hydrology were associated with an initially high seagrass coverage that was substantially reduced and showed signs of recovery only in the system that was affected by lower inflows. Such influences and responses also changed seasonally but to a much lesser extent than the responses to stochastic climatic events.

Natural flows were intermittent and varied substantially between years. Flooding flows represented up to 89% of the long-term annual average flow. Water quality was broadly typical of the region, with the exception of low pH in some tributaries, especially those of Anglesea estuary. Anthropogenic changes to flow were most evident at times of low natural flows and resulted in longer and more frequent periods of zero inflow to Painkalac estuary and a continual base flow to Anglesea. This base flow, from ponds containing coal ash, neutralised waters flowing from upstream and increased conductivity, except at times of high natural flow.

A three-state conceptual model of the magnitude and variability of water levels, based largely on the degree of tidal influence was identified and quantitatively assessed for the two estuaries that were the main focus of the study. These states in turn had a large influence on the area and inundation of benthic habitat. Floods tended to open the mouths of estuaries, which then remained tidal given sufficient flow to overcome sedimentary processes at the mouths. Low and zero inflow was a precondition for closure of the mouths of the estuaries. When closed, differences in inflow resulted in different endpoints in salinity patterns. From an initial pattern similar to a classic ‘salt wedge’, Painkalac estuary, with reduced inflow, quickly destratified and gradually became more saline, at times hypersaline. Anglesea estuary, with augmented flow, tended to remain stratified for longer until becoming completely fresh, given a long enough period of closure.

Episodic changes in the water quality of the estuaries were associated with different components of the freshwater flow regimes. At high flows, fresh waters of low pH with a high metal load entered Anglesea estuary. Except during the largest flood, when the estuary was completely flushed, this water was neutralised at the halocline and resulting in precipitation of metals. High flows into Painkalac were associated with elevated concentrations of clay-sourced suspended solids. During a closed period, with zero flow, a release of sediment-bound nutrients triggered by anoxia was observed in Painkalac, followed by an algal bloom.

The large decline in seagrass extent that was observed in both estuaries was closely related to floods and the subsequent reductions in potential habitat associated with the tidal states that followed. Analysis of historical patterns of extent against rainfall records suggested that periods of drought and extended mouth closures were related to establishment and expansion of beds. This model was similar to that described for South African estuaries and contrasted with more-seasonal patterns reported for local marine embayments.

Rates of in situ decomposition of seagrass detritus showed a mix of seasonal and disturbance-driven patterns of change, depending on estuary. Variability of these rates on a scale of 100s of metres was typically not significant, but there were a few episodes that were highly significant. A negative correlation between decomposition rate and seagrass extent was also observed. A novel technique for assessing cellulose decomposition potential in sediment, adapted from soil science, proved to be a useful tool for estuarine research. Results from this component of the study highlighted both small-scale variability that was inconsistent through time, and also stable differences in decomposition potential between depths and estuaries that were consistent with differences in hydrological state and salinity.

Given the relative lack of knowledge about processes in intermittent estuaries, particularly those relating to changes in freshwater inflow, results from this study will be of value both locally and for similar systems elsewhere. Locally, it is likely that flow regimes to both Anglesea and Painkalac estuaries will be reduced, following closure of the mine power station at Anglesea and due to increased demand from the reservoir above Painkalac. There is potential to manage flows from each of these sources to minimise downstream effects. Regionally, and globally, there are many intermittent estuaries in areas with Mediterranean-type climates. It has been predicted that the climates of these regions will become drier but with an increase in intensity of storm events, both of which have ramifications for flow regimes to estuaries. It is hoped that results of this study will contribute to more informed management of intermittent estuaries in the context of these likely changes.

Impact of introduced house mice (Mus musculus) on burrowing seabirds on Steeple Jason and Grand Jason Islands, Falklands, South Atlantic

Whilst there is good evidence for negative impacts of introduced rat species on island ecosystems, the effects of house mice (Mus musculus) are generally less well documented. In some situations, introduced house mice can exert severe impacts, particularly where this is the only introduced mammal. Here, we examine the distribution, relative abundance and breeding success of small burrowing seabirds on Steeple Jason Island, Falklands, in relation to habitat types and the distribution of house mice which is the sole introduced mammal species, and we make comparisons with seabird distribution and densities on the neighbouring island of Grand Jason where mice are absent. Grey-backed storm-petrel (Garrodia nereis) and Wilson's storm-petrel (Oceanites oceanicus), which due to their extremely small size are likely to be the most vulnerable to mouse predation, were considerably more abundant on mouse-free Grand Jason than on Steeple Jason. Grey-backed storm-petrel, which are typically associated with tussac grass, avoided this habitat on Steeple Jason where it is associated with high levels of house mouse activity (assessed from the proportion of wax baits gnawed overnight), whereas on mouse-free Grand Jason, there was no such avoidance. Wilson's storm-petrel nesting on Steeple Jason suffered high rates of egg and chick loss. Whilst we found evidence for detrimental impacts of house mice on the two small storm-petrel species, there was no relationship between relative mouse activity levels and the distribution or abundance of the larger thin-billed Prion (Pachyptila belcheri). © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Mining streams of short text for analysis of world-wide event evolutions

Streams of short text, such as news titles, enable us to effectively and efficiently learn the real world events that occur anywhere and anytime. Short text messages that are companied by timestamps and generally brief events using only a few words differ from other longer text documents, such as web pages, news stories, blogs, technical papers and books. For example, few words repeat in the same news titles, thus frequency of the term (i.e., TF) is not as important in short text corpus as in longer text corpus. Therefore, analysis of short text faces new challenges. Also, detecting and tracking events through short text analysis need to reliably identify events from constant topic clusters; however, existing methods, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), generates different topic results for a corpus at different executions. In this paper, we provide a Finding Topic Clusters using Co-occurring Terms (FTCCT) algorithm to automatically generate topics from a short text corpus, and develop an Event Evolution Mining (EEM) algorithm to discover hot events and their evolutions (i.e., the popularity degrees of events changing over time). In FTCCT, a term (i.e., a single word or a multiple-words phrase) belongs to only one topic in a corpus. Experiments on news titles of 157 countries within 4 months (from July to October, 2013) demonstrate that our FTCCT-based method (combining FTCCT and EEM) achieves far higher quality of the event's content and description words than LDA-based method (combining LDA and EEM) for analysis of streams of short text. Our method also visualizes the evolutions of the hot events. The discovered world-wide event evolutions have explored some interesting correlations of the world-wide events; for example, successive extreme weather phenomenon occur in different locations - typhoon in Hong Kong and Philippines followed hurricane and storm flood in Mexico in September 2013. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

We are in danger

Genre films are constructed out of narrative patterns and plot points that involve or are predicted on crisis, on danger. This is the logic of much if not all mainstream genre cinema: drama has to take place for there to be a story to be told, and for pleasure and identification to be arrested and enthused. Forms of threatening disequilibrium can be personal, domestic, familial, local, external, supernatural and murderous; a way of life can be threatened as well as life itself. There are ideological dimensions at play; the crisis threatens to destabilize patriarchy, heterosexuality, social norms and expectations. Feelings and modes of affect are set in dangerous motion as the crisis unfolds. Trouble may emerge from a wayward or transgressive family member, or it may arrive in town on horses, stagecoaches, trains, cars, spaceships, and on the wind and in the water. The main (and minor) characters in the film are at the center of this storm, and that places viewers at the epicenter of the danger, also. The genre film places us all in danger. The genre film, then, has phenomenal, phenomenological and bio-political potential as a site of cognitive, ideological and carnal endangerment.