Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

Managerial ownership concentration and agency conflict using logistic regression approach : evidence from Bursa Malaysia

This paper adopted logistic regression model to examine the relationship between level of managerial ownership concentration and agency conflict which are proxied by level of risk, firms leverage and firms dividend policy. The study covers a period of 5 years from 1997 through 2001. The study is based on the 100 blue-chip stocks, majority of which are derived from CI components. The findings suggest a positive and significant association between level of level of risk at lower level and managerial ownership while a negative and significant association is also evidenced between risk at higher level and managerial ownership concentration. While debt policy which serves as positive monitoring substitute for agency conflict is found to be positive and significant explaining the level of ownership concentration. Furthermore, dividend policies, which also serve as monitoring, substitute to reduce agency conflict between manager and external shareholders do not appear to have any significant impact on managerial ownership. On the other hand, the level of institutional ownership, which serves as external monitoring force, is found to have inverse impact on level of managerial ownership concentration. This is marginally significant at 10 level (p=.12). The findings, in part explain the argument that the managerial ownership help reduce agency conflict between outside equity holders and managers.

A study of job satisfaction and tax complexity

The introduction of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (Australia) was an attempt to decrease the complexity of the tax system, but the issue of complexity is still evident. Accounting practitioners are becoming overwhelmed with the amount of tax legislation and researchers have suggested that they are less satisfied in their jobs as a result. This study examines whether tax complexity affects accounting practitioners' job satisfaction. Demographic and personality factors are considered. The issues that were investigated further include practitioner perceptions of the most complex area(s) of tax law and the primary causes of a complex tax system. It was found that although tax complexity is causing job dissatisfaction, demographic factors and personality characteristics do not appear to be significant factors. Instead, the large volume of tax law was identified as having the most significant impact on complexity (resulting in widespread dissatisfaction) and income tax was regarded as the most complex area.

Corporate governance structure and firm performance : empirical evidence from Brusa Malaysia, Kuala Lumper

The issue of corporate governance has been emerging as important phenomena that has been searched extensively both in developed countries due to its strategic impact on the monitoring of management activities and firms’ performance. Yet little attempt has been made in developing countries like Malaysia to ascertain what constitute corporate governance and its impact on firm's performance. Therefore, this study aims at examining the structure of the corporate governance and its impact on firm’s performance. This study is based on 100 firms, which are the component of the Composite Index (CI) serve as market barometer. This study employs cross-sectional annual multiple regression model to examine, what constitutes the corporate governance structure and its impact on performance of the firm. The analysis was based on annual regression over 5 years period from 1997 through 2001. Three different blend of surrogate for corporate governance were developed for good corporate governance structure. These are the independent non-executive (outside) directors, audit committee and remuneration committee. To isolate the size effect from the impact of corporate governance structure on firm’s performance, firm’s size was also included are variable in the model. The ratio of net income before tax to total asset is used as a surrogate for firm’s performance. Evidence from the study indicates that there is partial relation between corporate governance structure and corporate performance. The presence of both audit and remuneration committee serves as an important monitoring device to control management activities that lead to increase firm's performance. While on average, the presence of independent nonexecutive directors does not provide any significant explanation for the firm's performance. However, the firm size appears to have significant impact on corporate performance.

Household composition and housing expenditures in rental-occupied and owner-occupied markets

This article examines the relationship between household compositions and housing expenditures in rental-occupied and owner-occupied markets. The author finds that renters allocate their budget proportionately between housing and nonhousing goods for an additional household member, leaving the budget share of housing expenditures unchanged. For homeowners, nevertheless, an extra member implies a reduction in housing expenditures as a share of total budget. Although age and gender compositions turn out to be significant in determining the budget share of housing expenditures for renters, they play no major role for homeowners. And although an increase in the number of working members for renters significantly reduces the share of budget spent on housing, it has no significant impact for their owner counterparts. Moreover, keeping total expenditures constant, the main income source of the head of the household does not make any difference in terms of resource allocation across housing and nonhousing goods for both renters and owners.

Evaluation of the performance and development culture initiative 2005-2008

An evaluation of the P&D Culture initiative 2005-2008 was contracted to Deakin University in 2009. The findings from the evaluation indicated a belief that the P&D Culture initiative had a significant impact on:

* Establishing effective school policies, processes and structures
* Strengthening school culture related to continuous improvement
* Improved instructional practice
* Improved student learning
* Implementation of other DEECD initiatives.

Options for change in the Australian cervical cancer screening program in context of HPV detection and vaccination

Introduction:
Cervical cancer screening has been implemented for over a decade in Australia and has significantly reduced the mortality and morbidity of the disease. The emergence of new technologies for cervical cancer, such as the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and DNA testing has encouraged debate regarding the effective use of resources in cervical cancer prevention. The present study evaluates the cost-effectiveness, from a health sector perspective, of various screening strategies in the era of these new technologies.

Methods:
A stochastic epidemiological model using a discrete event and continuous algorithm was developed to describe the natural history of cervical cancer. By allowing one member of the cohort into the model at a time, this micro-simulation model encompasses the characteristics of heterogeneity and can track individual life histories. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccine a Markov model was built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. A number of proposed screening strategies were evaluated with the stochastic model for the application of HPV DNA testing, with changes in the screening interval and target population. Health outcomes were measured by Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs), adjusted for application within an evaluation setting (i.e. the mortality component of the DALY was adjusted by a disability weight when early mortality due to cervical cancer is avoided). Costs in complying with the Australian updated guidelines were assessed by pathway analysis to estimate the resources associated with cervical cancer and its pre-cancerous lesion treatment. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the key parameters that influenced the cost-effectiveness results.

Results:
Current practice has already brought huge health gain by preventing more than 4,000 deaths and saving more than 86,000 life-years in a cohort of a million women. Any of the alternative screening strategies alter the total amount of health gain by a small margin compared to current practice. The results of incremental analyses of the alternative screening strategies compared to current practice suggest the adoption of the HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool every 3 years commencing at age 18, or the combined pap smear/HPV test every 3 years commencing at age 25, are more costly than current practice but with reasonable ICERs (AUD$1,810 per DALY and AUD$18,600 per DALY respectively). Delaying commencement of Pap test screening to age 25 is less costly than current practice, but involves considerable health loss. The sensitivity analysis shows, however, that the screening test accuracy has a significant impact on these conclusions. Threshold analysis indicates that a sensitivity ranging from 0.80 to 0.86 for the combined test in women younger than 30 is required to produce an acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Conclusions:
The adoption of HPV and combined test with an extended screening interval is more costly but affordable, resulting in reasonable ICERs. They appear good value for money for the Australian health care system, but need more information on test accuracy to make an informed decision. Potential screening policy change under current Australian HPV Vaccination Program is current work in progress. A Markov model is built to simulate the effect on the incidence of HPV and subsequent cervical cancer. Adoption of HPV DNA test as a primary screening tool in the context of HPV vaccination is under evaluation.

Improving collaboration between private psychiatrists, the public mental health sector and general practitioners : evaluation of the Partnership Project

Objectives: We describe the evaluation of the Partnership Project, which was designed to improve linkages between public and private sector mental health services. We consider the Project's key elements: a Linkage Unit, designed to improve collaborative arrangements for consumers and promote systems-level and cultural change; and the expansion of private psychiatrists' roles to include supervision and training, case conferencing and secondary consultation. The evaluation aimed to describe the impacts and outcomes of these elements.

Method: The evaluation used de-identified data from the Linkage Unit database, the Project's billing system, and the Health Insurance Commission (HIC). It drew on consultations with key stakeholders (semistructured interviews with 36 key informants, and information from a forum attended by over 40 carers and a meeting of five public sector and three private sector psychiatrists) and a series of case studies.

Results: The Linkage Unit facilitated 224 episodes of collaborative care, many of which had positive outcomes for providers, consumers and carers. It had a significant impact at a systems level, raising consciousness about collaboration and influencing procedural changes. Thirty-two private psychiatrists consented to undertaking expanded roles, and the Project was billed $78 032 accordingly. Supervision and training were most common, involving 16 psychiatrists and accounting for approximately 80% of the total hours and cost. Commonwealth expenditure on private psychiatrists' participation in the expanded roles was not associated with a reduction in benefits paid by the HIC. Key informants were generally positive about the expanded roles.

Conclusions: The Project represented a considered, innovative approach to dealing with poor collaboration between the public mental health sector, private psychiatrists and GPs. The Linkage Unit achieved significant systems-level and cultural change, which has the potential to be sustained. Expanded roles for private psychiatrists, particularly supervision and training, may improve collaboration, and warrant further exploration in terms of costs and benefits.

Factors regulating skeletal muscle fatty acid oxidative genes

Skeletal muscle is the most significant site for whole body fat utilisation. The ability to regulate fat use has a significant impact on the development of obesity and Type II diabetes. The studies conducted during this PhD provided significant insight into the complex molecular regulation of skeletal muscle fat utilisation.

Measuring credit spreads of emerging markets

This study found, in the trading of bonds from emerging economies, the international market does not differentiate distinctions between international bonds that were issued by government or corporations. While domestic political and economic issues affect the trading of Malaysian bonds, over the longer term, international economic events leave more significant impact.

Existence of externalities from investment in higher education research and development

Research undertaken for this thesis supports the underlying claim that education does generate externalities. By examining the impact of higher education R&D on Australian state production, the results suggest that both pure and applied R&D have a statistically significant impact on Australia's regional economic performance.

Ritual and nursing

The literature reveals that much of nursing comprises ritualized activity and behaviour and that these rituals have a significant impact on nursing practice. This study uses an ethnographic approach to uncover the meaning of ritual and its impact on nursing practice by examining the rituals embedded in Intravenous therapy management of four registered nurses working in two surgical wards in South Australia.

Representing Fijian bodies and the economy of war

This paper traces representations of the black body, which I have related to contemporary masculine identities in Fiji. I have linked historical representations to what I perceive as the ongoing commodification of the Fijian body and argue that opportunities that have arisen from conflict in the Middle East have had a significant impact on employment opportunities for Fijians. I have framed the discussion around a description and analysis of my own photographic and installation artworks produced between 2007 and 2009.

Who will be an entrepreneur? How cultural mechanisms and social network structure together influence entrepreneurial participation

Using data collected from 35 countries over five years, this study provides an investigation of the combined influence of cultural factors and social network structure on whether or not an individual, anywhere in the world, becomes an entrepreneur. Results show that knowing someone who has started a business recently, across the world, has a significant impact on entrepreneurship participation. Regarding the potential cultural influences, it seems that importance attached to personally knowing entrepreneurs differs significantly between individuals operating in different cultures. In cultures with high power distance, personally knowing a person who recently started a business is relatively less important as a driver of entrepreneurship participation compared to cultures with low power distance. On the other hand, in cultures where the Hofstede’s ‘masculinity’construct predominates, it is more important than in cultures characterised by ‘femininity’.

Occupational therapy students' attitudes towards inclusion education in Australia, United Kingdom, United States and Taiwan

This international, cross-cultural study investigated the attitudes of occupational therapy students from Australia, United Kingdom, United States and Taiwan towards inclusive education for students with disabilities. The possible impact of professional education on students' attitudes was also explored. A total of 485 students from 11 entry level occupational therapy education programmes from Australia, the United Kingdom, the United Sates and Taiwan participated in the study. Among them, 264 were freshmen (first-year students) and 221 were seniors (final-year students). Data collected from a custom-designed questionnaire were analysed both quantitatively and qualitatively.

In general, the occupational therapy students reported having positive attitudes towards inclusion. Considerable differences, however, existed among the student groups from the four countries. Professional education appeared to have a significant impact on students' attitudes towards inclusion from first year to senior year. Although students were in favour of inclusion, they also cautioned that their support for inclusive practices depended on various factors such as adequate preparation, support and assistance to students with disabilities.

Limitations of the study included the small, convenience sample and different degree structures of the participating programmes. Future research studies need to compare occupational therapy students' attitudes with students from other health care professions. A longitudinal study on the impact of the professional education programme on students' attitudes towards inclusive education is warranted.