Hydrologic landscape regionalisation using deductive classification and random forests

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents.

Continuous polyacrylonitrile nanofiber yarns: Preparation and dry-drawing treatment for carbon nanofiber production

Precursor fibers with diameters in nanometer scale and highly aligned polymer chains in fibers are highly promising for the preparation of high-performance carbon nanofibers, but are challenging to make. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time that a carbon nanofiber precursor can be prepared by the electrospinning of polyacrylonitrile into a nanofiber yarn and by the subsequent drawing treatment of the yarn in dry conditions. The yarn shows excellent drawing performance, which can be drawn evenly up to 6 times of its original length without breaking. The drawing treatment improves the yarn and fiber uniformity, polymer chain orientation within the fibers, as well as yarn tension and modules, but shows decreased yarn and fiber diameter and elongation at break. The drawing temperature and force show influences on the drawing behavior. The highest strength and modules (362 ± 37 MPa and 9.2 ± 1.4 GPa, respectively) are found on the yarn drawn by 5 times its length, which increased by 800% and 1800% when compared to the as-spun yarn. Through un-optimized stabilization and carbonization treatments, we further demonstrate that the carbonized nanofiber yarn shows comparable tensile properties as the commercial carbon fibers. Electrospun nanofiber yarns may form next generation precursors for making high performance carbon fibers. This journal is

A bust but no boom: responses of floodplain bird assemblages during and after prolonged drought

Climate change alters the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as drought. Such events will be increasingly important in shaping communities as climate change intensifies. The ability of species to withstand extreme events (resistance) and to recover once adverse conditions abate (resilience) will determine their persistence. We estimated the resistance and resilience of bird species during and after a 13-year drought (the 'Big Dry') in floodplain forests in south-eastern Australia. We conducted bird surveys at the beginning and end of the Big Dry, and after the abrupt end to the drought (the 'Big Wet'), to evaluate species-specific changes in reporting rates among the three periods. We assessed changes in bird-breeding activity before and after the Big Wet to estimate demographic resilience based on breeding. Between the start and the end of the Big Dry (1998 vs. 2009), 37 of 67 species declined substantially. Of those, only two had increased reporting rates after the Big Wet (2009 vs. 2013) that were equal to or larger than their declines, while three partially recovered. All other declining species showed low resilience: 25 showed no change in reporting rates and seven declined further. The number of breeding species and total breeding activity of all species declined after the Big Wet, and there was no change in the number of young produced. The Big Dry caused widespread declines in the floodplain avifauna. Despite the drought being broken by 2 years of well-above-average rainfall and subsequent near-average rainfall, most species showed low resilience and there was little indication that overall breeding had increased. The effects of drought appeared to be pervasive for much of the floodplain avifauna, regardless of species traits (species body mass, fecundity, mobility or diet). Ecosystems such as these are likely to require active management and restoration, including reinstatement of natural flooding regimes, to improve ecological condition, to enhance resistance and resilience to extreme climate events.

Forests of the sea: predictive habitat modelling to assess the abundance of canopy forming kelp forests on temperate reefs

 Large brown seaweeds (kelps) form forests in temperate and boreal marine systems that serve as foundations to the structure and dynamics of communities. Mapping the distributions of these species is important to understanding the ecology of coastal environments, managing marine ecosystems (e.g., spatial planning), predicting consequences of climate change and the potential for carbon production. We demonstrate how combining seafloor mapping technologies (LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry) and models of wave energy to map the distribution and relative abundance of seaweed forests of Ecklonia radiata can provide complete coverage over hundreds of square kilometers. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), we associated observations of E. radiata abundance from video transects with environmental variables. These relationships were then used to predict the distribution of E. radiata across our 756.1km2 study area off the coast of Victoria, Australia. A reserved dataset was used to test the accuracy of these predictions. We found that the abundance distribution of E. radiata is strongly associated with depth, presence of rocky reef, curvature of the reef topography, and wave exposure. In addition, the GLMM methodology allowed us to adequately account for spatial autocorrelation in our sampling methods. The predictive distribution map created from the best GLMM predicted the abundance of E. radiata with an accuracy of 72%. The combination of LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry allowed us to model and predict E. radiata abundance distribution across its entire depth range for this study area. Using methods like those presented in this study, we can map the distribution of macroalgae species, which will give insight into ecological communities, biodiversity distribution, carbon uptake, and potential sequestration.

A landscape-scale, applied fire management experiment promotes recovery of a population of the threatened Gouldian Finch, Erythrura gouldiae, in Australia's tropical savannas

Fire is an integral part of savanna ecology and changes in fire patterns are linked to biodiversity loss in savannas worldwide. In Australia, changed fire regimes are implicated in the contemporary declines of small mammals, riparian species, obligate-seeding plants and grass seed-eating birds. Translating this knowledge into management to recover threatened species has proved elusive. We report here on a landscape-scale experiment carried out by the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC) on Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in northwest Australia. The experiment was designed to understand the response of a key savanna bird guild to fire, and to use that information to manage fire with the aim of recovering a threatened species population. We compared condition indices among three seed-eating bird species-one endangered (Gouldian finch) and two non-threatened (long-tailed finch and double-barred finch)-from two large areas (> 2,830 km2) with initial contrasting fire regimes ('extreme': frequent, extensive, intense fire; versus 'benign': less frequent, smaller, lower intensity fires). Populations of all three species living with the extreme fire regime had condition indices that differed from their counterparts living with the benign fire regime, including higher haematocrit levels in some seasons (suggesting higher levels of activity required to find food), different seasonal haematocrit profiles, higher fat scores in the early wet season (suggesting greater food uncertainty), and then lower muscle scores later in the wet season (suggesting prolonged food deprivation). Gouldian finches also showed seasonally increasing stress hormone concentrations with the extreme fire regime. Cumulatively, these patterns indicated greater nutritional stress over many months for seed-eating birds exposed to extreme fire regimes. We tested these relationships by monitoring finch condition over the following years, as AWC implemented fire management to produce the 'benign' fire regime throughout the property. The condition indices of finch populations originally living with the extreme fire regime shifted to resemble those of their counterparts living with the benign fire regime. This research supports the hypothesis that fire regimes affect food resources for savanna seed-eating birds, with this impact mediated through a range of grass species utilised by the birds over different seasons, and that fire management can effectively moderate that impact. This work provides a rare example of applied research supporting the recovery of a population of a threatened species.

Fire severity and fire-induced landscape heterogeneity affect arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests

In fire-prone regions, wildfire influences spatial and temporal patterns of landscape heterogeneity. The likely impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of wildfire highlights the importance of understanding how fire-induced heterogeneity may affect different components of the biota. Here, we examine the influence of wildfire, as an agent of landscape heterogeneity, on the distribution of arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests in south-eastern Australia. First, we used a stratified design to examine the role of topography, and the relative influence of fire severity and fire history, on the occurrence of arboreal mammals 2-3 years after wildfire. Second, we investigated the influence of landscape context on the occurrence of arboreal mammals at severely burnt sites. Forested gullies supported a higher abundance of arboreal mammals than slopes. Fire severity was the strongest influence, with abundance lower at severely burnt than unburnt sites. The occurrence of mammals at severely burned sites was influenced by landscape context: abundance increased with increasing amount of unburnt and understorey-only burnt forest within a 1 km radius. These results support the hypothesis that unburnt forest and moist gullies can serve as refuges for fauna in the post-fire environment and assist recolonization of severely burned forest. They highlight the importance of spatial heterogeneity created by wildfire and the need to incorporate spatial aspects of fire regimes (e.g., creation and protection of refuges) for fire management in fire-prone landscapes.

Evaluating the role of fire disturbance in structuring small reptile communities in temperate forests

Fire is an integral disturbance shaping forest community dynamics over large scales. However, understanding the relationship between fire induced habitat disturbance and biodiversity remain equivocal. Ecological theories including the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) and the habitat accommodation model (HAM) offer predictive frameworks that could explain faunal responses to fire disturbances. We used an 80 year post-fire chronosequence to investigate small reptile community responses to fires in temperate forests across 74 sites. First, we evaluated if changes in species richness, abundance and evenness post-fire followed trends of prior predictions, including the IDH. Second, using competing models of fine scale habitat elements we evaluated the specific ways which fire influenced small reptiles. Third, we evaluated support for the HAM by examining compositional changes of reptile community post-fire. Relative abundance was positively correlated to age post-fire while richness and evenness showed no associations. The abundance trend was as expected based on the prior prediction of sustained population increase post-disturbance, but the trend for richness contradicted the prediction of highest diversity at intermediate levels of disturbance (according to IDH). Abundance changes were driven mainly by changes in overstorey, ground layer, and shelter, while richness and evenness did not associate with any vegetation parameter. Community composition was not strongly correlated to age since fire, thus support for the HAM was weak. Overall, in this ecosystem, frequent fire disturbances can be detrimental to small reptiles. Future studies utilizing approaches based on species traits could enhance our understanding of biodiversity patterns post-disturbance.

The epidemiology of dry eye in Melbourne, Australia

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of dry eye in the adult population of Melbourne, Australia. DESIGN: A cross-sectional prevalence study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were recruited by a household census from two of nine clusters of the Melbourne Visual Impairment Project, a population-based study of age-related eye disease in the 40 and older age group of Melbourne, Australia. Nine hundred and twenty-six (82.3% of eligible) people participated; 433 (46.8%) were male. They ranged in age from 40 to 97 years, with a mean of 59.2 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported symptoms of dry eye were elicited by an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Four objective assessments of dry eye were made: Schirmer's test, tear film breakup time, rose bengal staining, and fluorescein corneal staining. A standardized clinical slit-lamp examination was performed on all participants. Dry eye for the individual signs or symptoms was defined as: rose bengal > 3, Schirmers < 8, tear film breakup time < 8, > 1/3 fluorescein staining, and severe symptoms (3 on a scale of 0 to 3). RESULTS: Dry eye was diagnosed as follows: 10.8% by rose bengal, 16.3% by Schirmer's test, 8.6% by tear film breakup time, 1.5% by fluorescein staining, 7.4% with two or more signs, and 5.5% with any severe symptom not attributed to hay fever. Women were more likely to report severe symptoms of dry eye (odds ratio [OR] = 1.85; 95% confidence limits [CL] = 1.01, 3.41). Risk factors for two or more signs of dry eye include age (OR = 1.04; 95% CL = 1.01, 1.06), and self-report of arthritis (OR = 3.27; 95% CL = 1.74, 6.17). These results were not changed after excluding the 21 people (2.27%) who wore contact lenses. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first reported population-based data of dry eye in Australia. The prevalence of dry eye varies by sign and symptom.

Effects of the fire regime on mammal occurrence after wildfire: site effects vs landscape context in fire-prone forests

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. Fire regimes (including fire frequency, intensity, season and type of fire) influence the status of species by altering habitat suitability at the site scale, and by creating heterogeneity at the landscape scale. The relative effects of site and landscape-scale fire attributes on animal species are rarely examined together. Such knowledge is important, given that fire regimes are sensitive to changing land management practices; and that fires are predicted to become larger and more frequent in some regions as a result of climate change. Here, we tested the relative influence of elements of the fire regime (fire severity, fire history) at the site-scale, and the landscape context (extent of surrounding unburnt forest, fire heterogeneity) on the occurrence of native terrestrial mammals after severe wildfire in south-eastern Australia. We conducted surveys by using automatically triggered, infrared cameras at 80 sites in fire-prone eucalypt forests, 2-3. years post-wildfire. Thirteen native mammal species were recorded, eight of which were detected with sufficient frequency for analysis. Most species were widespread (35-90% of sites) and recorded in all fire severity classes. Fire effects at the site-level were more influential than landscape context effects arising from heterogeneity in the fire regime (e.g. extent of surrounding unburnt forest). Fire severity was the most influential of the fire-regime elements investigated, but it affected different species in different ways. This study highlights three main points relevant to conservation of terrestrial mammals after wildfire. First, spatial variation in fire severity associated with wildfire (ranging from unburned to severely burned stands) is an important contributor to the post-fire status of species. Second, post-fire environmental conditions are significant: here, rapid regeneration of vegetation following drought-breaking rains greatly influenced the suitability of post-fire habitats. Third, it is valuable to consider the effects of the fire regime at multiple scales, including both the site (forest stand) and its landscape context. Insights from short-term surveys, such as this, will be enhanced by complementary longitudinal studies, especially where they encompass environmental variation through the post-fire succession.