Understanding residential house prices : examining the contribution of social area analysis

A complete understanding of residential housing markets, particularly in relation to variations in house prices both within and between suburbs, continues to present challenges to property researchers and forecasters. Factors affecting changes in housing demand are not yet completely understood, and accordingly market changes cannot always be confidently predicted. Most urban cities contain precincts that have high or low house values at the same time, regardless of characteristics such as distance to the city centre, location of transport or topography. Exactly why these variations in suburb values occur is often unclear, although local residents are able to easily identify differences between the status of each suburb, especially when one area is clearly perceived as superior to another. Consequently, houses in premium suburbs are sold for substantially more than houses in other areas, primarily due to this perceived higher demand. An understanding of reasons behind varying levels of buyer demand has always been difficult to fully encapsulate in housing studies, even though clear links have been observed between housing affordability and the type of inhabitant that would live in a particular area. This study confirms that traditional economic indicators can not always observe the degree of purchaser and vendor willingness in the residential property market, as per the International Valuation Standards Committee definition of market value, and substantial consideration must also be given to characteristics of individual buyers and sellers within the marketplace. No longer can the focus be narrowly focussed just on endogenous factors such as interest rates and inflation levels.
Accordingly, this research draws the disciplines of demography and housing research closer together and looks to social indicators for an insight into the level of house prices. To establish this link, a two-stage process is adopted where social area analysis initially identifies the characteristics of suburbs within an urban area. This information is then used to examine variations in suburb values, resulting in a clearer understanding of the relationship between demographic variables and house prices. This research analysed changes in the value of established residential house prices in Melbourne, Australia as well as the relationship with social structure. The added dimension of time highlighted change, with data drawn from 1996 and 2001. The results confirmed the existence of strong linkages between social constructs and established house prices. Whilst acknowledging that the overall level of house values is influenced by external economic and political factors, differences between suburb values can be explained by demographic variables. The results confirm that increased emphasis must be placed upon demography when seeking to understand variations in residential property values between urban areas.

Residential housing and the green agenda

Australia’s residential development industry is at least superficially embracing environmental and sustainability issues in urban design. Rapidly emerging use of recycled water, lower impact outfalls, the use of roof water and water sensitive design for both housing and landscapes are all trends of interest to the property profession. There is particular interest in the cost of meeting end-user, local Government, State Government and development industry expectations for a green agenda for the residential sector.

Identifying linkages between generations and community development: the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important, they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually provide the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation shift had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X, Y and Z.

This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in a range of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends. The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Investigating residential property markets using employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some factors have a larger effect than others on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is employment. Due to the growing importance between housing affordability and the capacity to meet the cost of living the form of regular mortgage repayments or rent, there are clear links between the cost of housing and the ability to pay for the housing product.

The research investigates the links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three shiftshare components and property values with the assistance of a geographical information system (GIS).

Enhancement of natural ventilation in high-rise residential buildings using stack system

This paper describes the feasibility study on the application of passive and active stack systems to enhance natural ventilation in public housing in Singapore. About 86% of the population is staying in high-rise public housing, known as Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, which is designed for natural ventilation. The primary objective of this work is to assess the status of natural ventilation in a typical four-room HDB flat using scaled model in the wind tunnel, and to develop an effective passive or active stack system to enhance natural ventilation in the flat. Four numbers of stacks with different sizes were tested at two locations in the flat. The study shows that the passive stack, incorporating the principle of airflow due to buoyancy, does not enhance air velocity in the flat. However, the active stack which operates based on the suction effect induced by a fan fixed at the top of the stack leads to substantial increase in the air velocity at the room and thus meeting the human’s thermal comfort condition. It was noted that the velocities increase along with the increase in the stack size.

Project management practice in transition of old residential region

With the rapid urbanisation worldwide, the transitions of old residential regions inside or close to the urban districts have been challenging both governments and professionals. The sustainable maintenance, innovation and construction of these regions incorporate the history, culture, environment and policy factors into the economic objectives. Over the long and complex process of a transition project, the dedicated project management crew are frequently confronted with diversified novel issues and obliged to contribute appropriate solutions urgently. In this paper, the authors first analyse the state of the art of transition projects of old residential regions based on their practices in real projects. Furthermore, the authors explore the sustainable alternatives of transition projects from the reservation and development perspectives of culture, environment, society and infrastructure. Finally, the authors develop a multi-dimensional implementary framework for guiding the practices of management of transition projects.

Ventilation research on Australian residential construction

This paper applies established and new testing methods to discover the ventilation performance of various residential building envelope constructions in Australia. Under the definition of 'ventilation performance' we imply the building envelope leakage (or infiltration) of the living space air change rates, the volumetric flow rates and the pathways of air flow between subfloor, living and roof spaces. All of the methods applied and discussed here are on-site, evidence-based performance of actual structures as tested by the Mobile Architecture and Built Environment Laboratory and Air Barrier Technologies. The testing processes primarily involve the Tracer Gas Decay Method (TGDM) and rhe fan pressurisation method (FPM a.k.a 'blower door'). All the measurements are performed with respect to the external wind speed and direction as well as the typical weather parameters. This paper discusses the differences and similarities of both testing methods as well as several other testing procedures that can inform the researcher on air leakage pathways. Findings of a simultaneous TGDM and FPM air leakage rate comparison are also encountered in this paper. One of the most informative testing methods, is the application of three different tracer gasses introduced into different spaces (subfloor, living and roof) to discover pathways of air flow within residential construction.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

The residential demand for electricity in Australia : an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This paper reports estimates of the long- and short-run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in Australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag framework. In the long run, we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand, while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant. Our estimates of long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies, although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates. As expected, the short-run elasticities are much smaller than the long-run elasticities, and the coefficients on the error-correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short-run energy appliances are fixed.

Electricity consumption in G7 countries : a panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities

This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run and short-run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in G7 countries. The panel results indicate that in the long-run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic. The study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the G7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand, and thus curb carbon emissions, in the long run.

Walter Burley Griffin : residential

An analysis of Walter Burley Griffin's residential planning is presented. 43 plans are described according to the manipulation of triangle, T-square and compass, which support the possibility that Griffin may have been working in accordance with an underlying system of applied geometry based on the square and root 2 diagonal.