Laboratory and non-laboratory-based risk prevention models for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease : the LIPID study

Aims : The aims of this study were to examine whether risk prediction models for recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events have prognostic value, and to particularly examine the performance of those models based on non-laboratory data. We also aimed to construct a risk chart based on the risk factors that showed the strongest relationship with CVD.

Methods and results : Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate a risk score for each recurrent event in a CVD patient who was enrolled in a very large randomized controlled clinical trial. Patients were then classified into groups according to quintiles of their risk score. These risk models were validated by calibration and discrimination analyses based on data from patients recruited in New Zealand for the same study. Non-laboratory-based risk factors, such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, angina grade, history of myocardial infarction, revascularization, stroke, diabetes or hypertension and treatment with pravastatin, were found to be significantly associated with the risk of developing a recurrent CVD event. Patients who were classified into the medium and high-risk groups had two-fold and four-fold the risk of developing a CVD event compared with those in the low-risk group, respectively. The risk prediction models also fitted New Zealand data well after recalibration.

Conclusion : A simpler non-laboratory-based risk prediction model performed equally as well as the more comprehensive laboratory-based risk prediction models. The risk chart based on the further simplified Score Model may provide a useful tool for clinical cardiologists to assess an individual patient's risk for recurrent CVD events.

Longitudinal evaluation of a risk-factor model for adolescent suicidality

This research developed two best-fitting structural equation models of risk factors for adolescent depression and suicidality: a core model, which included parenting factors, gender, depression, and suicidality, and an extended model, which also encompassed personality traits (Introversion and Impulsivity) and mood factors (Anxiety and Anger). Further, this research investigated the consistency of model fit across time (Le., 1 month & 12 months) and samples, and explored the effectiveness of the ReachOut! Internet site as a psychoeducational prevention strategy for adolescent depression and suicidality. Gender, age, and location differences were also explored. Participants were 185 Year-9 students and 93 Year-10 students aged 14 - 16 years, from seven secondary schools in regional and rural Victoria. Students were given a survey which included the Parental Bonding Instrument (Parker, Tupling, & Brown, 1979), the Millon Adolescent Personality Inventory (Millon, Green, & Meagher, 1982), the Profile of Mood States Inventory (McNair & Lorr, 1964), items on suicidal behaviour including some questions from the Revised Adolescent Suicide Questionnaire (Pearce & Martin, 1994), and questions on loss and general demographics. Results supported an indirect model of risk factors, with family factors directly influencing personality factors, which in turn influenced mood factors, including depression, which then influenced suicidality. At the theoretical level, results supported Attachment Theory (Bowlby, 1969), demonstrating that perceived parenting styles that are warm and not overly controlling are more conducive to an adolescent's emotional well-being than are parenting styles that are cold and controlling. Further, results supported Millon's theory of personality (1981), demonstrating that parenting style influences a child's personality. Short-term intervention effects from the internet site were a decrease in Introversion for the full sample, and decreased Inhibition and Suicidality for a high-risk subgroup. Long-term age effects were decreased Inhibition and increased Anxiety for the fall sample. There was also a probable intervention effect for Depression for the high-risk subgroup. No location differences for the risk factors were found between regional and rural areas.

Effects of dietary constituents on coronary heart disease risk factors

Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is a major cause of death in Western countries. Mediterranean and Asian populations have a lower risk of death from CHD compared to Westernised population, as do vegetarian versus omnivorous populations. Dietary constituents of traditional diets consumed by these populations are thought to influence both the classical risk factors for CHD, and the more recently identified risk factors, such as oxidative modification of low density lipoprotein (LDL), LDL particle size, arterial compliance and haemostatic factors. The aim of this thesis was to examine the effects of several food components, particularly soybean and monounsaturated fat (MUFA), on CHD risk factors through 3 carefully controlled dietary interventions, and a cross-sectional study. A randomised crossover dietary intervention study was conducted in 42 healthy males to investigate the effect on CHD risk factors of replacing lean meat with tofu, a soybean product regularly consumed by Asian populations, while controlling all other dietary factors. The tofu diet resulted in significantly lower total cholesterol and triacylglycerol levels compared to the lean meat diet, and LDL particles that were more resistant to in vitro oxidative modification. However, insulin, fibrinogen, factor VII, and lipoprotein (a) were not significantly different on the 2 diets. A postprandial study was subsequently conducted to investigate any acute effects of a tofu test meal on the oxidative modification of LDL in 16 male subjects. There was no significant difference between the susceptibility of LDL to oxidative modification before and after the tofu meal. Twenty eight healthy subjects completed a separate randomised crossover dietary intervention comparing a high MUFA fat diet, using an Australian high oleic sunflower oil, with a low fat, high carbohydrate diet on CHD risk factors. The high MUFA oil diet significantly increased high density lipoprotein cholesterol compared to the low fat diet as well as producing LDL that were more resistant to oxidative modification. Neither the size of the LDL particle nor arterial compliance were significantly different on the 2 diets. Twelve matched pairs of vegetations and omnivores were also studies to compare the habitual diet of a low and higher risk population group, to compare their risk factors and identify dietary constituents that may explain the differences. The vegetarians consumed less saturated fat (SFA) and dietary cholesterol while consuming more polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre and vitamin E compared to omnivores. The vegetarians had lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triacylglycerol levels compared to the omnivores and had LDL particles that were more resistant to in vitro oxidation. These findings contribute to our knowledge about the dietary constituents that can alter some CHD risk factors in healthy subjects, and which could reduce the risk of developing CHD. Investigations in high risk groups might reveal even more benefits.

Fall risk management intervention : a feasibility and validation study

A fall risk management intervention was undertaken by staff caring for older people in nursing homes. Its acceptability and usefulness was tested. 'High risk times' and 'at risk' individuals were found, thereby identfying times when staff should be vigilant, and specific residents to be targeted with fall prevention strategies.

Risk assessment with female sex offenders : can women meet the criteria of community protection laws?

Although females represent a small proportion of the sex offender population, they occasionally appear before the courts under the current generation of laws intended to protect the public from high-risk sex offenders. In this context, practitioners are called upon to provide assessment of the risk these women pose for sexual re-offending. The primary issues addressed in this paper are related to the validity of conducting such risk assessments and providing professional opinions as to the risk of further sexual offences that may be committed by female offenders. The approach taken is to summarize briefly the available professional literature regarding female sex offenders, and then to present the findings of the relatively few empirical studies that address sexual recidivism in females. The final section examines the positions taken in the published works of various international experts regarding risk assessment with females, followed by conclusions and recommendations in light of the standards typically prescribed by community protection laws.

Continuity of midwifery care and gestational weight gain in obese women : a randomised controlled trial

Background: The increased prevalence of obesity in pregnant women in Australia and other developed countries is a significant public health concern. Obese women are at increased risk of serious perinatal complications and guidelines recommend weight gain restriction and additional care. There is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of dietary and physical activity lifestyle interventions in preventing adverse perinatal outcomes and new strategies need to be evaluated. The primary aim of this project is to evaluate the effect of continuity of midwifery care on restricting gestational weight gain in obese women to the recommended range. The secondary aims of the study are to assess the impact of continuity of midwifery care on: women’s experience of pregnancy care; women’s satisfaction with care and a range of psychological factors.
Methods/Design: A two arm randomised controlled trial (RCT) will be conducted with primigravid women recruited from maternity services in Victoria, Australia. Participants will be primigravid women, with a BMI≥30 who are less than 17 weeks gestation. Women allocated to the intervention arm will be cared for in a midwifery continuity of care model and receive an informational leaflet on managing weight gain in pregnancy. Women allocated to the control group will receive routine care in addition to the same informational leaflet. Weight gain during pregnancy, standards of care, medical and obstetric information will be extracted from medical records. Data collected at recruitment (self administered survey) and at 36 weeks by postal survey will include sociodemographic information and the use of validated scales to measure secondary outcomes.
Discussion: Continuity of midwifery care models are well aligned with current Victorian, Australian and many international government policies on maternity care. Increasingly, midwifery continuity models of care are being introduced in low risk maternity care, and information on their application in high risk populations is required. There is an identified need to trial alternative antenatal interventions to reduce perinatal risk factors for women who are obese and the findings from this project may have application in other maternity services. In addition this study will inform a larger trial that will focus on birth and postnatal outcomes.

Extended supervision or civil commitment for managing the risk of sexual offenders : public safety and individual rights

Since the early 1990’s, there has been a proliferation of legislative initiatives in North America, the United Kingdom, and Australasia that are intended to improve public protection from high risk sexual offenders. These laws include extended supervision of sexual offenders once released from prison and indefinite involuntary civil commitment to secure treatment facilities following the expiration of a prison sentence. The enactment of these laws has sparked intense debate and numerous legal challenges on a variety of issues, including the need to strike a proper balance between public safety and the rights of individual offenders. Recent challenges to Extended Supervision Orders in New Zealand have included the assertion that this approach is inconsistent with the Bill of Rights Act. This article compares the use of Extended Supervision Orders in New Zealand to the use of civil commitment of Sexually Violent Predators in the United States, and particularly in California, which currently confines the largest number of offenders under this type of commitment. It is argued that Extended Supervision is more flexible, less intrusive, less punitive, and less costly than civil commitment. The degree to which it is effective in improving public safety remains an empirical question.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors : an economic modelling study from Australia

Background
A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.
Methods
Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.
Results
Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.
Conclusions
Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

Smartpumps: a negotiated relative advantage?

Significant improvements in smart healthcare are only possible if a multidisciplinary approach is taken to the design, implementation, and application of technology in their respective social context. Pregnant women living with type 1 diabetes (PWT1D) face a series of challenges including ongoing management of diet and physical activity, continued delivery and adjustment of insulin doses. These women often feel socially and geographically isolated, due to the rarity of their condition, the paucity of accurate personal healthcare information, and the demands of a high-risk pregnancy. ITenabled smartpumps which allow information to be shared between women with type 1 diabetes and their healthcare team, are one possible solution to this problem. This paper highlights the adoption and application of IT-enabled smartpumps by PWT1D. Using a Cross Community Information Systems (CCIS) approach we examine some of the benefits and drawbacks of smartpumps from the perspective of a range of stakeholders associated with the health and wellbeing of PWT1D and their unborn children. Ultimately we argue that with a considered approach to their adoption and use smartpumps provide an effective tool for ongoing support and collaboration within the healthcare team.

Individual, social, and physical environmental correlates of physical activity among young women at risk of depression

Background : A number of factors have been identified as important correlates of physical activity (PA) among young women. Young women at risk of depression have a greater likelihood of being physically inactive and it is unknown whether correlates differ for women at risk and not at risk of depression.

Methods : A sample of 451 women aged 18-35 years self-reported leisure-time PA, enjoyment of and self-efficacy for walking and vigorous PA, barriers, social support, access to sporting/leisure facilities and access to sporting equipment in the home. Depression risk was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (cut point ≥5). Logistic regression analyses examined differences in PA correlates among women at risk and not at risk of depression.

Results : Self-efficacy for vigorous PA was statistically different between groups in predicting odds for meeting PA recommendations but odds ratios were similar across groups. No other significant interactions between correlates and depressive symptoms were identified.

Conclusions : The findings suggest few differences in the individual, social and physical environmental correlates of PA among young women who are and are not at risk of depression. Further research is needed to confirm the existence of any PA correlates specific to this high-risk target group.

Potential of pharmacists to help reduce the burden of poorly managed cardiovascular risk

Introduction: Rural areas require better use of existing health professionals to ensure capacity to deliver improved cardiovascular outcomes. Community pharmacists (CPs) are accessible to most communities and can potentially undertake expanded roles in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Objective: This study aims to establish frequency of contact with general practitioners (GPs) and CPs by patients at high risk of CVD or with inadequately controlled CVD risk factors.

Design, setting and participants: Population survey using randomly selected individuals from the Wimmera region electoral roll and incorporating a physical health check and self-administered health questionnaire. Overall, 1500 were invited to participate.

Results: The participation rate was 51% when ineligible individuals were excluded. Nine out of 10 participants visited one or both types of practitioner in the previous 12 months. Substantially more participants visited GPs compared with CPs (88.5% versus 66.8%). With the exception of excess alcohol intake, the median number of opportunities to intervene for every inadequately controlled CVD risk factor and among high risk patient groups at least doubled for the professions combined when compared with GP visits alone.

Conclusion: Opportunities exist to intervene more frequently with target groups by engaging CPs more effectively but would require a significant attitude shift towards CPs. Mechanisms for greater pharmacist integration into primary care teams should be investigated.

Financial systems and mechanisms of growth in different conditions of country risk

This article uses panel data from 1976 to 2003 to investigate the ways in which banking and stock markets influence economic growth in situations of high and low country risk. The mean and Standard Deviation (SD) of country risk are adopted to classify 28 countries into Low Risk Low Volatility (LRLV) and High Risk High Volatility (HRHV) subgroups. Through the technique of error correction-based panel co-integration developed by Westerlund (2007), several results are obtained. First, LRLV countries can expand the capitalization of stock market to enhance long-term economic growth. Second, HRHV countries, on the other hand, use two distinct strategies to promote long-term economic growth. Initially they develop their equity markets, which promote economic growth directly. Strengthened equity markets, in turn, aid in the development of credit markets, which subsequently brings an economic boom. Finally, regardless of selected subgroups, the contribution of stock market capitalization to economic growth appears to be substantially larger than that of bank credit, highlighting the importance of stock markets.

Annual high-dose oral vitamin D and falls and fractures in older women : a randomized controlled trial

Context Improving vitamin D status may be an important modifiable risk factor to reduce falls and fractures; however, adherence to daily supplementation is typically poor.

Objective To determine whether a single annual dose of 500 000 IU of cholecalciferol administered orally to older women in autumn or winter would improve adherence and reduce the risk of falls and fracture.

Design, Setting, and Participants A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 2256 community-dwelling women, aged 70 years or older, considered to be at high risk of fracture were recruited from June 2003 to June 2005 and were randomly assigned to receive cholecalciferol or placebo each autumn to winter for 3 to 5 years. The study concluded in 2008.

Intervention 500 000 IU of cholecalciferol or placebo.

Main Outcome Measures Falls and fractures were ascertained using monthly calendars; details were confirmed by telephone interview. Fractures were radiologically confirmed. In a substudy, 137 randomly selected participants underwent serial blood sampling for 25-hydroxycholecalciferol and parathyroid hormone levels.

Results Women in the cholecalciferol (vitamin D) group had 171 fractures vs 135 in the placebo group; 837 women in the vitamin D group fell 2892 times (rate, 83.4 per 100 person-years) while 769 women in the placebo group fell 2512 times (rate, 72.7 per 100 person-years; incidence rate ratio [RR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.30; P = .03). The incidence RR for fracture in the vitamin D group was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.00-1.59; P = .047) vs the placebo group (rates per 100 person-years, 4.9 vitamin D vs 3.9 placebo). A temporal pattern was observed in a post hoc analysis of falls. The incidence RR of falling in the vitamin D group vs the placebo group was 1.31 in the first 3 months after dosing and 1.13 during the following 9 months (test for homogeneity; P = .02). In the substudy, the median baseline serum 25-hydroxycholecalciferol was 49 nmol/L. Less than 3% of the substudy participants had 25-hydroxycholecalciferol levels lower than 25 nmol/L. In the vitamin D group, 25-hydroxycholecalciferol levels increased at 1 month after dosing to approximately 120 nmol/L, were approximately 90 nmol/L at 3 months, and remained higher than the placebo group 12 months after dosing.

Conclusion Among older community-dwelling women, annual oral administration of high-dose cholecalciferol resulted in an increased risk of falls and fractures.

Youth (in)justice : oral language competence in early life and risk for engagement in antisocial behaviour in adolescence

Youth offenders are complex and challenging for policymakers and practitioners alike and face high risks for long-term disadvantage and social marginalisation. In many cases, this marginalisation from the mainstream begins in early life, particularly in the classroom, where they have difficulty both with language/literacy tasks and with the interpersonal demands of the classroom. Underlying both sets of skills is oral language competence—the ability to use and understand spoken language in a range of situations and social exchanges, in order to successfully negotiate the business of everyday life. This paper highlights an emerging field of research that focuses specifically on the oral language skills of high-risk young people. It presents evidence from Australia and overseas that demonstrates that high proportions (some 50% in Australian studies) of young offenders have a clinically significant, but previously undetected, oral language disorder. The evidence presented in this paper raises important questions about how young offenders engage in forensic interviews, whether as suspects, victims or witnesses. The delivery of highly verbally mediated interventions such as counselling and restorative justice conferencing is also considered in the light of emerging international evidence on this topic.

Problem gambling among international and domestic university students in Australia : who is at risk?

Young people are a high risk group for gambling problems and university (college) students fall into that category. Given the high accessibility of gambling in Australia and its association with entertainment, students from overseas countries, particularly those where gambling is restricted or illegal, may be particularly vulnerable. This study examines problem gambling and its correlates among international and domestic university students using a sample of 836 domestic students (286 males; 546 females); and 764 international students (369 males; 396 females) at three Australian universities. Our findings indicate that although most students gamble infrequently, around 5 % of students are problem gamblers, a proportion higher than that in the general adult population. Popular gambling choices include games known to be associated with risk (cards, horse races, sports betting, casino games, and gaming machines) as well as lotto/scratch tickets. Males are more likely to be problem gamblers than females, and almost 10 % of male international students could be classified as problem gamblers. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that male gender, international student status, financial stress, negative affect and frequency of gambling on sports, horses/dogs, table games, casino gaming machines, internet casino games and bingo all significantly predicted problem gambling. Results from this study could inform gambling-education programs in universities as they indicate which groups are more vulnerable and specify which games pose more risk of problem gambling.