Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries

This paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003. The study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test with one structural break. The results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity. The findings from the LM panel unit root test with a structural break, however, are conclusive, suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional-based panels, crude oil and NGL production are jointly stationary.

Are shocks to real effective exchange rates permanent or transitory? evidence from Pacific Island countries

In this article, we consider the stability of the real effective exchange rates for four Pacific Island countries using the Lee and Strazicich (2003a, b) unit root test, which allows one to incorporate at most two structural breaks in the data series. Our main finding is that for Papua New Guinea and Samoa, exchange rates are stable, implying that shocks will have a transitory effect on real effective exchange rates, while for Fiji and the Solomon Islands we find exchange rates to be unstable, implying that shocks will have a permanent effect on real effective exchange rates.

Do shocks to G7 stock prices have a permanent effect? : evidence from panel unit root tests with structural change

There is a plethora of studies that investigate evidence for the behaviour of stock prices using univariate techniques for unit roots. Whether or not stock prices are characterised by a unit root have implications for the efficient market hypothesis, which asserts that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from previous price changes. The extant literature has found mixed evidence on the integrational properties of stock prices. In this paper, for the first time, we provide evidence on the unit root hypothesis for G7 stock price indices using the Lagrangian multiplier panel unit root test that allows for structural breaks. Our main finding is that stock prices are stationary processes, inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK

The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in macroeconomic aggregates for the UK at business cycle horizons. Using the common trend–common cycle restrictions, we estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and consumption were due to permanent shocks while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in investment. Our findings for income and consumption are consistent with real business cycle models which emphasize the role of aggregate supply shocks, while our findings for investment are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which emphasizes the role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining business cycles.

Baseline assessment of organizational capacity for health promotion within regional health authorities in Alberta, Canada

This paper provides a baseline profile of organizational capacity for (heart) health promotion in Alberta's regional health authorities (RHAs); and examines differences in perceived organizational health promotion capacity specific to modifiable risk factors across three levels of staff and across capacity levels. Baseline data were collected from a purposive sample of 144 board members, senior/middle managers and service providers from 17 RHAs participating in a five-year time-series repeated survey design assessing RHA capacity for (heart) health promotion. Results indicate low levels of capacity to take health promotion action on the broader determinants of health and risk conditions like poverty and social support. In contrast, capacity for health promotion action specific to physiological and behavioural risk factors is considerably higher. Organizational "will" to do health promotion is noticeably more present than is both infrastructure and leadership. Both position held within an organization as well as overall level of organizational capacity appear to influence perceptions of organizational capacity. Overall, results suggest that organizational "will", while necessary, is inadequate on its own for health promotion implementation to occur, especially in regard to addressing the broader determinants of health. A combination of low infrastructure and limited leadership may help explain a lack of health promotion action.

Do permanent shocks explain income levels? a common cycle-common trend analysis of regional income levels for China

In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.

Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? evidence from 182 countries

This article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979–2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption. The univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31% of the sample at the 10% level or better. However, univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution. When we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research.

Risk management or goods promotion : the relationship between approach and avoidance goals in treatment for sex offenders

In this paper, we propose that there is a direct relationship between risk management and goods (or goal) promotion in the treatment of sexual offenders. We argue that the causal conditions required to promote specific goods are likely, in turn, to eliminate or modify dynamic risk factors (i.e., criminogenic needs). First, the concepts of risk and goals are briefly discussed and their important dimensions clarified. Second, the relationship between criminogenic needs and goals are analyzed in depth. Third, we further clarify our arguments by focusing on four classes of criminogenic needs recently identified in the sexual offending literature: sexual self-regulation, offense supportive cognitions, level of interpersonal functioning, and general self-management problems. Finally, we conclude the paper with some suggestions for future research and treatment.