The role of agregate demand and supply shocks in a low-income country : evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the relative role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in affecting the output level and inflation rate in a low-income country vulnerable to various economic shocks. The study uses Bangladesh data, and following Cover et al (2006), employs a modification of the Blanchard-Quah (BQ) approach, in which the two shocks are allowed to be correlated. Strong evidence is found for the hypothesis that aggregate demand and supply shocks are interrelated in Bangladesh. For the case in which causality is assumed to be running from demand to supply shocks, it was found that an independent supply shock plays significant role for fluctuations in inflation, which was absent in the standard BQ model. The results suggest that a tightening of monetary policy may lead to an adverse effect on the long-run growth potential and some supply-side policies may be required to supplement contractionary monetary policy in combating inflation in Bangladesh.

A factor-augmented VAR approach : the effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada

In this paper a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is estimated to characterize the dynamic effects of shocks in the personal income tax rate in the United States on United States and Canadian economies. The representation and the estimate of the FAVAR model is based on Stock and Watson (2005) and the shocks are recovered applying the identification scheme proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005); this method allows impulse response functions to be generated for all the variables in the dataset and provides a description of the domestic and international transmission mechanisms of United States movements in the personal income tax rate. A distinguishing feature of our model is the disaggregation of traded goods sector where imports and exports are disaggregated into 12 and 13 industries, respectively. This provides extra information on the domestic and international transmission mechanism across the two countries. The results show that the FAVAR approach generates a reasonable characterisation of the effects of United States movements in the US personal income tax rate on the United States economy and its transmission to the Canadian economy.

Are shocks to national income persistent? New global evidence

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the integrational properties of real GDP for 125 countries
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Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies the Kwiatkowski et al. univariate test and a KPSS-type univariate test that accounts for multiple structural breaks – a test procedure proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. The panel versions of the KPSS-type test, proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. with and without structural breaks, are also applied.

Findings – The paper finds that, while univariate tests with and without structural breaks provide mixed results on persistence, the panel test suggests that shocks to national output are persistent.

Originality/value – This is a multi-country study that focuses on both developed and developing countries and uses more recent data to provide new and comparable evidence on the persistence of output.

Influencing health equity : role of the effective consumer scale in measuring skills and abilities in a middle income country

The 2008 World Health Report emphasizes the need for patient-centered primary care service delivery models in which patients are equal partners in the planning and management of their health. It is argued that this involvement will lead to improved management of disease, improved health outcomes and patient satisfaction, better informed decision-making, increased compliance with healthcare decisions, and better resource utilization. This article investigates the domains captured by the Effective Consumer Scale (EC-17) in relation to vulnerable population groups that experience health inequity. Particular focus is paid to the domain of health literacy as an area fundamental to patients’ involvement in managing their condition and negotiating the healthcare system. In examining the possible influence of Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) on health equity, we used the recent translation and validation of the EC-17 scale into Spanish and tested Argentina as an example. Future plans to use the EC-17 with vulnerable groups include formal collaboration and needs assessment with the community to tailor an intervention to meet its needs in a culturally relevant manner. Some systematic reviews have questioned whether interventions to improve effective consumer skills are appropriate in vulnerable populations. We propose that these populations may have the most to gain from such interventions since they might be expected to have relatively lower skills and health literacy than other groups.

Income support best way of fixing equity : Go8

The Go8 has broken ranks with other university groups in suggesting that base funding shouldn’t have an equity component.

Mutual obligation? Regulating by supervision and surveillance in Australian income support policy

Through an analysis of speeches by government ministers, documents and regulations, this article examines the Australian national government’s surveillance of unemployed people through what is known as Activity Testing, and more specifically as Mutual Obligation. It seeks to merge the social policy analysis of Mutual Obligation with a surveillance perspective in order to delve deeper into the underlying nature of the policy and its implications for people who are unemployed. It does this by 1. Outlining the neo-liberal political theory underlying these policies; 2. Illustrating the nature and extent of surveillance of people in receipt of income support, and 3. Employing Foucault’s concepts of the technologies of domination and the self to highlight the controlling and coercive aspects of Mutual Obligation in achieving certain of the Government’s political and policy objectives. In doing so, the analysis will make visible something of the power exerted over the disadvantaged while subject to such surveillance.

The contributions of first nations ethnicity, income, and delays in surgery on mortality post-fracture : a population-based analysis

Summary We examined the independent contributions of First Nations ethnicity and lower income to post-fracture mortality. A similar relative increase in mortality associated with fracture appears to translate into a larger absolute increase in post-fracture mortality for First Nations compared to non-First Nations peoples. Lower income also predicted increased mortality post-fracture.

Introduction First Nations peoples have a greater risk of mortality than non-First Nations peoples. We examined the independent contributions of First Nations ethnicity and income to mortality post-fracture, and associations with time to surgery post-hip fracture.

Methods Non-traumatic fracture cases and fracture-free controls were identified from population-based administrative data repositories for Manitoba, Canada (aged ≥50 years). Populations were retrospectively matched for sex, age (within 5 years), First Nations ethnicity, and number of comorbidities. Differences in mortality post-fracture of hip, wrist, or spine, 1996–2004 (population 1, n = 63,081), and the hip, 1987–2002(Population 2, n = 41,211) were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression to model time to death. For hip fracture, logistic regression analyses were used to model the probability of death within 30 days and 1 year.

Results Population 1: First Nations ethnicity was associated with an increased mortality risk of 30–53 % for each fracture type. Lower income was associated with an increased mortality risk of 18–26 %. Population 2: lower income predicted mortality overall (odds ratio (OR) 1.15, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.07–1.23) and for hip fracture cases (OR 1.18, 95%CI 1.05–1.32), as did older age, male sex, diabetes, and >5 comorbidities (all p ≤ 0.01). Higher mortality was associated with pertrochanteric fracture (OR 1.14, 95 % CI 1.03–1.27), or surgery delay of 2–3 days (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.18–1.52) or ≥4 days (OR 2.35, 95 % CI 2.07–2.67).

Conclusion A larger absolute increase in mortality post-fracture was observed for First Nations compared to non-First Nations peoples. Lower income and surgery delay >2 days predicted mortality post-fracture. These data have implications regarding prioritization of healthcare to ensure targeted, timely care for First Nations peoples and/or individuals with lower income.

Mind the gap! : A discussion on the disparity between low and high income countries in the provision of mental health care and the implications for capacity building in Kenya’s nursing workforce.

About fourteen per cent of the global burden of disease has been attributed to mental, neurological and substance use disorders. A number of initiatives have been launched in recent years to respond to this, the World Health Organisation (WHO) introduced the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) to address the widening gap between what is needed to provide adequate mental health services and what is currently available, especially in low and middle income countries where the gap is widest.
This discussion paper will focus on mental health nursing in Kenya, a country in East Africa with a population of 42 million people. Mental illness is common in Kenya with up to twenty five per cent prevalence rates, yet mental health services are sparse at the tertiary and primary care level and mental health remains a low budget and policy priority for the government. The aim of this paper is to raise participants’ awareness of the challenges of delivering mental health nursing care in low-income countries such as Kenya, and to explore possible solutions to the problem.