Underestimation of risk perception in patients at risk of heart disease

Accurate perception of cardiovascular risk is important if people with established, or at high risk of, coronary heart disease are to engage in risk-reducing behaviours.

Towards consistency, rigour and compatibility of risk assessments for ecosystems and ecological communities

Ecosystem-level conservation is increasingly important at global, national and local levels. Many jurisdictions have developed and apply their own protocols for assessing the threat status of ecosystems, often independently, leading to inconsistencies between and within countries which are problematic for cross-jurisdictional environmental reporting. Australia is a good example of these historic legacies, with different risk assessment methods applied nationally and in most states. The newly developed criteria for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) provide a framework to compare and contrast apparently divergent protocols. We critically reviewed the Australian protocols and compared them with the IUCN RLE, based on the following components of a risk assessment protocol: (i) categories of threat; (ii) assessment units; (iii) underlying concepts and definitions; (iv) assessment criteria; (v) uncertainty methods; and (vi) assessment outcomes. Despite some differences in specific objectives, criteria and their expression, the protocols were structurally similar, included broadly similar types of criteria, and produced assessment outcomes that were generally concordant. Alignment with the IUCN RLE would not require extensive changes to existing protocols, but would improve consistency, rigour and robustness in ecosystem risk assessment across jurisdictions. To achieve this, we recommend: (i) more quantitative assessments of functional change; (ii) separation of management and policy considerations from risk assessment; and (iii) cross-referencing of assessment units in different jurisdictions. We argue that the focus on processes and ecological function, rather than only patterns, is key to robust risk assessment. © 2014 The Authors.

A longitudinal study of risk and protective factors associated with successful transition to secondary school in youth with ADHD: prospective cohort study protocol

BACKGROUND: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has a significant impact on child and adolescent development, especially in relation to school functioning and academic outcomes. Despite the transition to high school being a potentially critical period for children with ADHD, most research in this period has focused on academic outcomes. This study aims to extend previous research by describing academic, school engagement, behaviour and social-emotional outcomes for young people with ADHD in the first and third years of high school and to identify risk and protective factors predictive of differing outcomes across these four domains. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Moving Up study is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study of children with ADHD as they transition and adjust to high school (age 12-15 years). Data are collected through direct assessment and child, parent and teacher surveys. The primary outcome is academic achievement, obtained by linking to standardised test results. Secondary outcomes include measures of behaviour, ADHD symptoms, school engagement (attitudes and attendance), and social and emotional functioning, including depressive symptoms. The mean performance of the study cohort on each outcome measure will be compared to the population mean for same aged children, using t-tests. Risk and protective factors to be examined using multiple regression include a child, family and school factors know to impact academic and school functioning. DISCUSSION: The Moving up study is the first Australian study prospectively designed to measure a broad range of student outcomes for children with ADHD during the high school transition period. Examining both current (cross sectional) and earlier childhood (longitudinal) factors gives us the potential to learn more about risk and protective factors associated with school functioning in young people with ADHD. The richness and depth of this information could lead to more targeted and effective interventions that may alter academic and wellbeing trajectories for young people at risk of poor outcomes. The study is approved by The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (33206). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

Parents who supply sips of alcohol in early adolescence: a prospective study of risk factors

BACKGROUND: Parents are a major supplier of alcohol to adolescents, often initiating use with sips. Despite harms of adolescent alcohol use, research has not addressed the antecedents of such parental supply. This study investigated the prospective associations between familial, parental, peer, and adolescent characteristics on parental supply of sips. METHODS: Participants were 1729 parent-child dyads recruited from Grade 7 classes, as part of the Australian Parental Supply of Alcohol Longitudinal Study. Data are from baseline surveys (Time 1) and 1-year follow-up (Time 2). Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regressions tested prospective associations between Time 1 familial, parental, peer, and adolescent characteristics and Time 2 parental supply. RESULTS: In the fully adjusted model, parental supply was associated with increased parent-report of peer substance use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.20, 95% confidence ratio [CI], 1.08-1.34), increased home alcohol access (OR = 1.07, 95% CI, 1.03-1.11), and lenient alcohol-specific rules (OR=0.88, 95% CI, 0.78-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Parents who perceived that their child engaged with substance-using peers were more likely to subsequently supply sips of alcohol. Parents may believe supply of a small quantity of alcohol will protect their child from unsupervised alcohol use with peers. It is also possible that parental perception of peer substance use may result in parents believing that this is a normative behavior for their child's age group, and in turn that supply is also normative. Further research is required to understand the impacts of such supply, even in small quantities, on adolescent alcohol use trajectories.

Enhancing the effectiveness of risk management practices in Sri Lankan road construction projects: a Delphi approach

The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) Identifying the risks that are critical for risk management of road construction projects in Sri Lanka on a life cycle basis and (2) defining the shares of the parties involved in projects in terms of handling the identified risks. A Delphi study was conducted among 33 Sri Lankan experts (consultants, project managers, contractors) in three rounds. The findings showed that the construction and design phases are prone to many major risks. Moreover, ‘delays in payment by the client’ was the most critical risk factor in the construction stage. Furthermore, it was established that some major risks could occur in more than one phase of the project life cycle, stressing the necessity of handling these risk factors as a prerequisite for project success. The discussions presented in this study would enhance the effectiveness of implementing risk management practices in Sri Lankan road construction projects. From a broader vantage point, it will also serve the risk management body of knowledge in the construction industry.

The Index Effect: an investigation of the price and volume effects surrounding changes to the S & P Australian indices

This paper examines the stock price and volume effects surrounding the announcement of constituent changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and four supplementary indices. Between April 2000 and December 2002 additions to (deletions from) the ASX 200 were associated with a significant price rise (fall) over the 10 day period following the market announcement of the change. Deletions were also associated with a significant fall on the announcement date itself These findings were corroborated by significant increases in trading volume over the same intervals, suggesting heavy trading activity by index funds in response to changes to the ASX 200. Following the implementation of these changes, both additions and deletions experienced a significant price reversion, supporting the price pressure hypothesis. By contrast, none of the supplementary indices displayed evidence of stock price or volume effects, which precludes the information and liquidity hypotheses as viable explanations for the findings of this research.

Costs of raising equity capital by renounceable rights issues in Australia

Rights issues remain a common method for raising equity capital in Australia for companies listed on me Australian Stock Exchange. This study investigates the capital raising costs of Anstralian renounceable equity rights issues from 2001 to 2006. Both direct and indirect costs are investigated and the explanatory power of potential influencing factors is analyzed. The total direct costs averaged nearly 4% of gross proceeds raised and the mean offer price was discounted around 17% from the current market price. Issue size, percentage underwritten, concentration of ownership and issuer risk significantly influence the percentage direct costs of the rights issue. The age of the issuer, the average historical volume of shares traded and the offer price appear to influence the percentage discount.

Dietary portfolio approach to reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease : the polymeal revisited

Aims: The Polymeal was first proposed as a 'tastier and safer' alternative to a polypharmacy approach to cardiovascular disease risk reduction. The present study aimed to examine the affordability of the Polymeal, and to propose modifications based on economic considerations, and the latest scientific evidence, to achieve consistency with current public health recommendations.

Methods: Prices for each food component specified in the Polymeal were obtained from a major and independent supermarket chain in a representative middle socioeconomic demographic region of metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Items included fish (114 g, four times/week), fruits and vegetables (400 g/day), dark chocolate (100 g/day), garlic (2.7 g/day), almonds (68 g/day) and red wine (150 mL/day). Prices were calculated using an average of the major brands, or the most commonly eaten fruits, vegetables or fish. Modifications of the Polymeal were proposed based on published research and public health recommendations since the Polymeal was first proposed.

Results: Average price of the Polymeal was AU$11.89 per day falling to AU$8.46 if the cheapest food items were chosen. Modifications to the Polymeal included: consuming fish oil capsules instead of fish, reduction in the quantity of dark chocolate and removal of red wine. These modifications halved the cost of the Polymeal, while choosing the cheapest food items further lowered the cost to AU$3.49 per day. Modification of the Polymeal gave substantial reductions in both energy and saturated fat (51% and 84%, respectively).

Conclusion: The modified Polymeal is a more affordable variation of the Polymeal, which takes into account current scientific evidence and public health recommendations.

Market analysis study of the value technology systems to home owners

Smart Technology involves the integration of a variety of home systems including lighting, climate control, security etc. to enhance the comfort, convenience and economy of the home for its users. It is currently unknown if home buyers believe that these systems add value to the home. This study used the market value of home sales and an attitudinal survey of home buyers, to determine the increased value of homes containing Smart Technology. The results demonstrated that a significant price premium was paid by for the incorporation of the technology into new homes. In addition, the research suggests that the use of this technology is not limited to high income earners or other demographic stereotypes. Instead it has broad market appeal and the potential to save energy for the community at large.

Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: evidence from Latin America

We utilize the default by Argentina in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as natural experiments, to monitor the complex interactions between sovereign bonds when subjected to endogenous and exogenous shocks. By forming pairs of Latin American sovereign bonds, bundled into similar maturity class, the analysis highlights the complex nature of risk shifting, and the temporal nature of the volatility transmission and sharing mechanisms in the lead up to, and after, a crisis period. The results show that shorter maturity groups and longer maturity groups behave in fundamentally different ways in terms of volatility transmission, while one or two leading countries act as regional benchmarks. The dynamics are consistent with temporal but segmented investor preferences, with the arrival of crisis contributing to a breakdown in the previous relationships. In addition, there is additional economic benefit from utilizing knowledge of the volatility structure underlying the historic transmission channels to improve the portfolio outcomes of market participants.

The tax treatment of employee stock options : generous to a fault

In the 2000 budgets, both the federal and Ontario governments introduced changes to the tax treatment of employee stock options for the explicit purpose of making their tax treatment in Canada similar to or more favourable than that in the United States. The federal budget added a deferral, similar to that currently applicable to options granted by Canadian-controlled private corporations, for up to $100,000 per year of public company stock options. The Ontario budget introduced an exemption from tax for employees involved in research and development on the first $100,000 per year of employee benefits arising on the exercise of qualified stock options or on eligible capital gains arising from the sale of shares acquired by the exercise of eligible stock options. These proposals reflect the apparent acceptance by the two governments that there is a “brain drain” from Canada to the United States of knowledge workers in the “new” economy and that reductions in Canadian taxes should stem this drain. In the author’s view, the tax treatment of employee stock options, even without these changes, is overly generous. Both the federal and provincial proposals ignore the fact that most employee stock options are taxed more favourably in Canada than in the United States in any event. In particular, most employee stock option benefits in Canada are taxed at capital gains tax rates, whereas in the United States most are taxed at full rates. While the US Internal Revenue Code does provide capital gains tax treatment for certain employee stock option benefits, a number of preconditions must be met. Most important, the shares acquired pursuant to the options must be held for a minimum of one year after the option is exercised. In addition, there are monetary limits on the amount of options that qualify for capital gains treatment. In Canada, there are generally no holding period requirements or monetary limits that apply in order for the option holder to benefit from capital gains tax rates. Empirical evidence indicates that the vast majority of employees in the United States exercise their options and immediately sell the shares acquired. These “cashless exercises” do not benefit from capital gains treatment in the United States, whereas similar cashless exercises in Canada generally do. This empirical evidence suggests not only that the 2000 budget proposals are unwarranted, but also that the existing treatment of employee stock options in Canada is already more generous than that in the United States. This article begins with a theoretical “benchmark” for the taxation of employee stock options. The author suggests that employee stock options should be treated in the same manner as other income from employment. In theory, the value of the benefit should be included in income when the option is granted or vests. However, owing to the practical difficulty of valuing employee stock options, the theoretical benchmark proposed is that the value of the benefit (the difference between the fair market value of the shares acquired and the strike price under the option) be taxed when the shares are acquired, and the employer be entitled to a corresponding deduction. The employee stock option rules in Canada and the United States are then compared and contrasted with each other and the benchmark treatment. The article then examines the arguments that have been made for favourable treatment of employee stock options. Included in this critique is a review of the recent empirical work on the Canadian brain drain. Empirical studies suggest that the brain drain—if it exists at all—is small and that, despite what many newspapers and right-wing think-tanks would have us believe, lower taxes in the United States are not the cause. One study, concluding that taxes do have an effect on migration, suggests that even if Canada adopted a tax system identical to that in the United States, the brain drain would be reduced by a mere 10 percent. Indeed, even if Canada eliminated income tax altogether, it would not stop the brain drain. If governments here want to spend money in order to stem the brain drain, they should focus on other areas. For example, Canada produces fewer university graduates in the fields of mathematics, sciences, and engineering than any other G7 country except Italy. The short supply of university graduates in these fields, the apparent loss of top-calibre academics to US
universities, and the consequent lower levels of university research in these areas (an important spawning ground for new ideas in the “new” knowledge-based economy) suggest that Canada may be better served by devoting more resources to its university institutions, particularly in post-graduate programs, rather than continuing the current trend of budget cuts that universities have endured and may further endure if taxes are reduced.
As far as employee stock options are concerned, if Canada does want to look to the United States for guidance on tax reform (which it seems to do with increasing frequency of late), it should adopt the US rules applicable to nonstatutory options, which are close to the proposed benchmark treatment. In the absence of preferential tax treatment, employee stock options would still be included in compensation packages provided that there were sound business reasons for their use. No persuasive evidence has been put forward that the use of stock options, in the absence of tax incentives, is suboptimal. Indeed, the US experience suggests quite the opposite.

Grassroots energy: a case study of active citizenship and public communication in risk society

In 2001, the Victorian state government approved the construction of a 500-megawatt power station at Stonehaven by US multinational corporation, AES Power One. In 2002 plans had stalled and the company had withdrawn from the process. By March, 2002 the state government flagged that the power station was no longer required to meet power supply demands. This paper applies Beck’s theories of risk society and reflexive modernisation to a case study. It asks to what extent is Australia a risk society? Is the Stonehaven case part of a larger-scale cultural and political movement and if so what are the consequences for corporate and civil citizenship and public communication in Australia?

An examination of the joint venture market entry option in China : a case study of an Australian company's international marketing experience in China

There is a widely held view in the literature that foreign companies looking to invest in the China market should opt for joint ventures rather than wholly foreign-owned enterprises for many reasons, ranging from a smaller capital commitment to utilising the market knowledge of local Chinese partners. This paper examines this issue in the light of the experience of the Foster's Brewing Group which established three joint ventures in China only to reject this form of market entry option within a few years. The paper looks at some of the reasons behind Foster's rejection of the joint venture option and proposes some key guidelines that foreign companies should follow if they are to successfully establish joint ventures in China.

Information signalling of common stock repurchase announcements: Australian evidence

Stock repurchases (or share buy-backs) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies. One of the main aims of announcing a stock repurchase by a listed company is signalling the market that its shares are currently underpriced. When market reacts to the signal, price of the shares is expected to increase immediately after the announcement. While there are several ways of repurchasing shares, 'on-market buy-backs' is the most popular method of stock repurchases in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the information signalling effects of these on-market buy-back announcements. If the signal is considered positively (negatively) by the market, the price of the repurchasing company's shares should increase (decrease) immediately after the announcement. If there is no information content in the announcement, the price will remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements was examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements during the period from January 1, 2000 to March 10, 2003 was included. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 9 trading days centred on the announcement date) was computed using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily Abnormal Returns (AR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) during the event period were computed. The results strongly support the information-signalling hypothesis of share buy..backs. Australian market generally considers announcement of on~market share repurchases as signalling of insider information that shares are currently underpriced.