International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

Additions to the aggregate housing stock are a broad measure of the state of an economy and overall level of confidence in a particular region over a designated period. This is due to the direct and indirect effect (e.g. employment in the housing construction industry) upon on the local economy and is linked to the confidence of local households in the future direction of housing investment, the level of housing affordability by households as related to employment levels and the relationship between supply and demand in each region. Another consideration is the ability of the government to monitor and successfully intervene in the operation of the household market (e.g. mortgage interest rates) with the intent of restricting an over-supply situation which may take years to fully recover. The analysis in this section examines new housing commencements for Scotland, Australia, USA and Canada over an extended time period with the specific focus placed on the periods before, during and after the high profile global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The graph in Figure 1 was adapted from data sourced from The Scottish Government (2013) and covers the 15-year period between 1998 and 2012. With the exception of 1999 there were been relatively few years with substantial additions to the housing market. However, the effect of the GFC can clearly be observed post 2007 although by 2012 there was relatively change from the previous year.

Rating downgrade and the price impact of CDS spread on stock return

We investigate the time-varying informativeness of credit default swap (CDS) trading on stock returns for 302 US firms from July 2004 to August 2010. Using the Acharya and Johnson (2007) measure, we find that CDS trading becomes informative for an increasing number of firms as we approach the global financial crisis (GFC). Firm numbers gradually decline post-GFC, but remain high compared to the pre-GFC period. furthermore, CDS trading imposes the largest conditional price impact on firms that are recently downgraded, regardless of rating levels. Interestingly, this holds during and after the GFC, but not before. We offer two implications. First, despite post-GFC outcry against the CDS market, our results suggest it exhibits enhanced price discovery during the GFC. Second, our findings support criticism that, in the lead-up to the GFC, rating agencies are slow in downgrading firms. However, if downgrade decisions made during and after the GFC induce informed trading in the CDS market, this necessarily implies that during the midst of the GFC, rating agencies have got their act together.

Financialisation of official development assistance

Official Development Assistance is a significant global enterprise. Organsiations engaged in funding and implementing ODA (the bilateral donors, multilateral organsiations such as the World Bank and IMF) have unprecedented political and economic influence over a large number of sovereign developing countries. This paper analyses if, and how financialisation impacts on development aid, and implications for effective aid policy agendas, drawing on and linking critical debate on finacialisation, and ODA. Subsequent to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the persistence of the European Monitory Crisis (EMC), specific needs of developing countries became increasingly sub-ordinated to political and ideological power relations between ‘real’ economics and financial economics otherwise known as financialisation. The paper finds ‘financialisation’ as the ideological, political and economic catalyst for economic growth potentially confusing long-term development to combat poverty, and a short term need to overcome the lack of financial capacity in developing recipient countries. Sustainable economic development requires developing countries to forsake the pursuit of financialisation and to re-delineate their national finance, trade and investment regimes, and re-state it in a balanced manner as to take into account their unique economic development needs rather that the donor agencies’ demands and to advance their own ‘real’ economies.

Conclusion : democratising the history of democracy

The aim of The Secret History of Democracy has been to open debate on a larger view of democratic practice than that encapsulated by its wellknown standard history. The book came about from a concern that, while democracy was experiencing an ascendancy that began in the aftermath of the Second World War and intensified with the end of the Cold War, the global uptake of this particular form of governance came at the very moment when its limitations were becoming clearer: in its European and American heartlands there was less interest in participating in democracy; Clinton began in hope but ended in scandal; 9/11 was a victory for intolerance precisely because Western democracy restricted its own freedoms; the Bush, Blair and Howard governments became less relevant to their constituents and waged unpopular wars; the global financial crisis revealed democracy’s dependence on a flawed economic model; and difficulties in dealing with the global impact of climate change showed the limitations of national democracies, hostage to sectional interests. The exemplars of democracy were not having an easy time.

Economic resilience of regions under crises: a study of the Australian economy

Courvisanos J., Jain A. and Mardaneh K. Economic resilience of regions under crises: a study of the Australian economy, Regional Studies. Identifying patterns of economic resilience in regions by industry categories is the focus of this paper. Patterns emerge from adaptive capacity in four distinct functional groups of local government regions in Australia, in respect of their resilience from shocks on specific industries. A model of regional adaptive cycles around four sequential phases – reorganization, exploitation, conservation and release – is adopted as the framework for recognizing such patterns. A data-mining method utilizes a k-means algorithm to evaluate the impact of two major shocks – a 13-year drought and the Global Financial Crisis – on four functional groups of regions, using census data from 2001, 2006 and 2011.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.

Herding behaviour in the Australian loan market and its impact on bank loan quality

We examine the effect of herding behaviour on the credit quality of bank loans in Australia. We find that bank herding varies with different types of loans. It tends to be more prevalent in owner-occupied housing loans and credit cards than other types of loans. During the global financial crisis period, herding in owner-occupied housing loans was most pronounced due to the flight-to-quality phenomenon in the housing sector. Furthermore, we find that the big four banks tend to herd more than smaller and regional banks. Bank herding behaviour is countercyclical, as it is negatively related to real GDP growth and the cost of funding but is positively related to market risk. Regulatory capital requirements may also encourage herding as banks are required to hold less risk-weighted capital for residential loans. Most importantly, bank herding is related to higher impaired assets and therefore lower loan quality. Our findings may have implications for policymakers and bank regulators.

Remuneration committee effectiveness and narrative remuneration disclosure

This paper investigates the impact of the effectiveness of remuneration committees on narrative voluntary disclosure of information on remuneration. We develop a composite measure as a proxy for remuneration committee effectiveness by incorporating remuneration committee size, remuneration committee independence, remuneration committee chairman’s independence, expertise and diligence. We find that both the existence and quality of a remuneration committee play a significant role in the decision to provide voluntary disclosure of remuneration actions and in the extent of this disclosure. Further analysis suggests that remuneration committee independence and diligence enhance the quality of remuneration committees. The results have policy implications for remuneration committees as an effective corporate governance mechanism.

Has China displaced its competitors in high tech trade?

This paper empirically investigated the extent to which China displaced its competitors in high-tech exports using disaggregated data for the period 1992–2013. To address the endogeneity problem, we used a comprehensive set of instruments for Chinese high-tech exports in relevant markets, including China's GDP and distances to those markets. Results of our IV regressions revealed that in most of the high-tech sectors, Chinese exports had displaced the exports of its developing competitors such as India, South American exporters like Brazil and Mexico, and South-East Asian countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, especially in the period prior to the 2007–08 global financial crisis. Yet, Chinese exports had been associated with more high-tech exports of developed exporters like OECD countries, South Korea and Japan. Our findings suggest that while China became the world's top high-tech exporter, its high-tech exported products had been substitutes to those of other developing and emerging economies but complementary to that of developed economies.

Dividends, leverage, and family ownership in the emerging Indonesian market

We examine the roles of dividends and leverage to mitigate agency problems within familyfirms in Indonesia. Using simultaneous equations, we find a significant negative associationbetween family ownership and dividend payout and a two-way negative relation betweendividend payout and leverage. Our analysis reveals that, compared to non-family firms,family firms tend to maintain a lower dividend pay-out and higher leverage. The presenceof large non-family ownership appears to have an impact on determining levels of privatebenefit control. During the Asian and global financial crisis, family firms changed theirdividend pay-out more than non-family firms did.

Islamic or conventional mutual funds: who has the upper hand? Evidence from Malaysia

Contradictory results are documented in the literature regarding which type of mutual fund has superior performance; an Islamic or conventional mutual fund. Due to the relative short history of the Islamic mutual funds' industry, prior literature has inevitably relied on a small sample size with a short sample period. With the longest applicable sample period, this study represents one of the most recent attempts to address this conflicting evidence. We find there is no clear cut over performance by Islamic mutual funds against their conventional peers across the three financial crises in our sample period, with the exception of the most recent global financial crisis, where Islamic mutual funds generally outperformed their conventional counterparts. We further find that Islamic funds significantly outperformed conventional funds in the riskiest asset class, equity, one year before and during the global financial crisis. We further reveal that the modified value at risk for Islamic mutual funds was significantly lower than their conventional peers during the global financial crisis. This seems to indicate that Islamic mutual funds have better risk management compared to conventional peers.

Determinants of non-life insurance expenditure in developed and developing countries: an empirical investigation

The determinants of non-life insurance expenditure in a panel data set covering 36 developed countries and 31 developing countries for the period 2000–2011 are analysed. Results of our instrumental variable analysis indicate that economic freedom, income, bank development, urbanization, culture and law systems are the key drivers of the non-life insurance expenditure across countries. However, their impacts differ significantly between the groups of developed and developing countries, suggesting that the heterogeneity among countries in terms of the level of development plays an important role. The global financial crisis is also found to influence the direction of those effects, especially in developed countries. The article yields useful policy and economic implications for governments and multinational non-life insurance companies with regard to the development of the non-life insurance sector, an important engine for economic growth and prosperity.

Ethnic discrimination in private rental housing markets in Australia

Over the last two decades new and significant demographic, economic, social and environmental changes and challenges have shaped the production and consumption of housing in Australia and the policy settings that attempt to guide these processes. These changes and challenges, as outlined in this book, are many and varied. While these issues are new they raise timeless questions around affordability, access, density, quantity, type and location of housing needed in Australian towns and cities. The studies presented in this text also provide a unique insight into a range of housing production, consumption and policy issues that, while based in Australia, have implications that go beyond this national context. For instance how do suburban-based societies adjust to the realities of aging populations, anthropogenic climate change and the significant implications such change has for housing? How has policy been translated and assembled in specific national contexts? Similarly, what are the significantly different policy settings the production and consumption of housing in a post-Global Financial Crisis period require? Framed in this way this book accounts for and responds to some of the key housing issues of the 21st century.

Competing development paradigms and alternative evaluations of aid effectiveness: challenging the dominant neoliberal vision

In the period since the end of the Second World War, thinking about the ways in which development takes place and can be fostered has gone through a series of fundamental shifts, and in each of the paradigms that have been dominant at particular times the role of aid has been given a quite different emphasis. In this chapter the nature of each of these major periods in development thinking is outlined, along with an exploration of changing priorities for aid policy, and hence of the criteria that might be used to evaluate aid effectiveness. The aim, then, is to develop an understanding of the political economy of aid policy, moving well beyond restricted economic criteria to encompass political considerations as well as insights from a range of other disciplines. Particular attention is given to the current neoliberal agenda, which in spite of many attacks since the Global Financial Crisis has retained its dominant position. It is argued that this produces a development and aid agenda that enhances a starkly unequal income distribution, and that ways in which a new paradigm that places more emphasis on the common good can be created must be explored.