Comparing churn prediction techniques and assessing their performance: a contingent perspective

Customer retention has become a focal priority. However, the process of implementing an effective retention campaign is complex and dependent on firms’ ability to accurately identify both at-risk customers and those worth retaining. Drawing on empirical and simulated data from two online retailers, we evaluate the performance of several parametric and nonparametric churn prediction techniques, in order to identify the optimal modeling approach, dependent on context. Results show that under most circumstances (i.e., varying sample sizes, purchase frequencies, and churn ratios), the boosting technique, a nonparametric method, delivers superior predictability. Furthermore, in cases/contexts where churn is more rare, logistic regression prevails. Finally, where the size of the customer base is very small, parametric probability models outperform other techniques.

Enhancing predictive accuracy of cardiac autonomic neuropathy using blood biochemistry features and iterative multitier ensembles

Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

Analyzing systolic-diastolic interval interaction characteristics in diabetic cardiac autonomic neuropathy progression

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN), one of the major complications in diabetes, if detected at the subclinical stage allows for effective treatment and avoiding further complication including cardiovascular pathology. Surface ECG (Electrocardiogram)-based diagnosis of CAN is useful to overcome the limitation of existing cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests traditionally used for CAN identification in clinical settings. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes in the mechanical function of the ventricles in terms of systolic-diastolic interval interaction (SDI) from a surface ECG to assess the severity of CAN progression [no CAN, early CAN (ECAN) or subclinical CAN, and definite CAN (DCAN) or clinical CAN]. ECG signals recorded in supine resting condition from 72 diabetic subjects without CAN (CAN-) and 70 diabetic subjects with CAN were analyzed in this paper. The severity of CAN was determined by Ewing's Cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests. Fifty-five subjects of the CAN group had ECAN and 15 subjects had DCAN. In this paper, we propose an improved version of the SDI parameter (i.e., TQ/RR interval ratio) measured from the electrical diastolic interval (i.e., TQ interval) and the heart rate interval (i.e., RR interval). The performance of the proposed SDI measure was compared with the performance of the existing SDI measure (i.e., QT/TQ interval ratio). The proposed SDI parameter showed significant differences among three groups (no CAN, ECAN, and DCAN). In addition, the proposed SDI parameter was found to be more sensitive in detecting CAN progression than other ECG interval-based features traditionally used for CAN diagnosis. The modified SDI parameter might be used as an alternative measure for the Ewing autonomic reflex tests to identify CAN progression for those subjects who are unable to perform the traditional tests. These findings could also complement the echocardiographic findings of the left ventricular diastolic dysfunction by providing additional information about alteration in systolic and diastolic intervals in heart failure.