Improving prediction interval quality : a genetic algorithm-based method applied to neural networks

The delta technique has been proposed in literature for constructing
prediction intervals for targets estimated by neural networks. Quality of constructed prediction intervals using this technique highly depends on neural network characteristics. Unfortunately, literature is void of information about how these dependences can be managed in order to optimize prediction intervals. This study attempts to optimize length and coverage probability of prediction intervals through modifying structure and parameters of the underlying neural networks. In an evolutionary optimization, genetic algorithm is applied for finding the optimal values of network size and training hyper-parameters. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed optimization technique is examined and demonstrated using a real case study. It is shown that application of the proposed optimization technique significantly improves quality of constructed prediction intervals in term of length and coverage probability.

Determining RF MEMS switch parameter by neural networks

A challenge in designing a RF MEMS switch is the determination of its parameters to satisfy the application requirements. Often this is done through a set of comprehensive time consuming simulations. This paper employs neural networks and develops a supervised learner that is capable of determining S11 parameter for a RF MEMS shunt switch. The inputs are the length its L and the height of its gap. The outputs are S11s for eight different frequency points from 0 to V band. The developed learner helps prevent repetitive simulations when designing the specified switch. Simulation results are presented.

Load forecasting and neural networks : a prediction interval-based perspective

Successfully determining competitive optimal schedules for electricity generation intimately hinges on the forecasts of loads. The nonstationarity and high volatility of loads make their accurate prediction somewhat problematic. Presence of uncertainty in data also significantly degrades accuracy of point predictions produced by deterministic load forecasting models. Therefore, operation planning utilizing these predictions will be unreliable. This paper aims at developing prediction intervals rather than producing exact point prediction. Prediction intervals are theatrically more reliable and practical than predicted values. The delta and Bayesian techniques for constructing prediction intervals for forecasted loads are implemented here. To objectively and comprehensively assess quality of constructed prediction intervals, a new index based on length and coverage probability of prediction intervals is developed. In experiments with real data, and through calculation of global statistics, it is shown that neural network point prediction performance is unreliable. In contrast, prediction intervals developed using the delta and Bayesian techniques are satisfactorily narrow, with a high coverage probability.

Application of neural networks in modelling serviceability deterioration of concrete stormwater pipes

Stormwater pipe systems in Australia are designed to convey water from rainfall and surface runoff only and do not transport sewage. Any blockage can cause flooding events with the probability of subsequent property damage. Proactive maintenance plans that can enhance their serviceability need to be developed based on a sound deterioration model. This paper uses a neural network (NN) approach to model deterioration in serviceability of concrete stormwater pipes, which make up the bulk of the stormwater network in Australia. System condition data was collected using CCTV images. The outcomes of model are the identification of the significant factors influencing the serviceability deterioration and the forecasting of the change of serviceability condition over time for individual pipes based on the pipe attributes. The proposed method is validated and compared with multiple discriminant analysis, a traditionally statistical method. The results show that the NN model can be applied to forecasting serviceability deterioration. However, further improvements in data collection and condition grading schemes should be carried out to increase the prediction accuracy of the NN model.

Exponential stabilization of neural networks with various activation functions and mixed time-varying delays

This paper presents some results on the global exponential stabilization for neural networks with various activation functions and time-varying continuously distributed delays. Based on augmented time-varying Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, new delay-dependent conditions for the global exponential stabilization are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility of our results.

Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting

Evolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.

Text-dependent speaker recognition using the Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network

Speaker recognition is the process of automatically recognizing the speaker by analyzing individual information contained in the speech waves. In this paper, we discuss the development of an intelligent system for text-dependent speaker recognition. The system comprises two main modules, a wavelet-based signal-processing module for feature extraction of speech waves, and an artificial-neural-network-based classifier module to identify and categorize the speakers. Wavelet is used in de-noising and in compressing the speech signals. The wavelet family that we used is the Daubechies Wavelets. After extracting the necessary features from the speech waves, the features were then fed to a neural-network-based classifier to identify the speakers. We have implemented the Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) network in the classifier module to categorize the de-noised and compressed signals. The proposed intelligent learning system has been applied to a case study of text-dependent speaker recognition problem.

Application of an adaptive neural network with symbolic rule extraction to fault detection and diagnosis in a power generation plant

Artificial neural networks have a good potential to be employed for fault diagnosis and condition monitoring problems in complex processes. In this paper, the applicability of the fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network as an intelligent learning system for fault detection and diagnosis in a power generation plant is described. The process under scrutiny is the circulating water (CW) system, with specific attention to the conditions of heat transfer and tube blockage in the CW system. A series of experiments has been conducted systematically to investigate the effectiveness of FAM in fault detection and diagnosis tasks. In addition, a set of domain rules has been extracted from the trained FAM network so that its predictions can be explained and justified. The outcomes demonstrate the benefits of employing FAM as an intelligent fault detection and diagnosis tool with an explanatory capability for monitoring and diagnosing complex processes in power generation plants.

An experimental study of original and ordered fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks in pattern classification tasks

This paper investigates the effectiveness of an ordering algorithm applied to the supervised Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network in pattern classification tasks. Before presenting the input patterns to the FAM network (known as ordered FAM), a fixed order of input patterns is first identified using the ordering algorithm. An experimental study is conducted to compare the results from ordered FAM with the average and voting results from original FAM. In the study, a pool of the original FAM networks is trained using different sequences of input patterns, and the results are averaged. Outputs from various original FAM networks can also be combined using a majority voting strategy to reach a final result. A database comprising various symptoms and measurements of patients suffering from heart attack is used to evaluate the various schemes of the FAM network in medical pattern classification tasks. The results are compared, analyzed, and discussed.

Text-dependent speaker recognition using wavelets and neural networks

An intelligent system for text-dependent speaker recognition is proposed in this paper. The system consists of a wavelet-based module as the feature extractor of speech signals and a neural-network-based module as the signal classifier. The Daubechies wavelet is employed to filter and compress the speech signals. The fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network is used to classify the processed signals. A series of experiments on text-dependent gender and speaker recognition are conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system using a collection of vowel signals from 100 speakers. A variety of operating strategies for improving the FAM performance are examined and compared. The experimental results are analyzed and discussed.