Little evidence that condition, stress indicators, sex ratio, or homozygosity are related to landscape or habitat attributes in declining woodland birds

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are drivers of major declines in biodiversity and species extinctions. The actual causes of species population declines following habitat change are more difficult to discern and there is typically high covariation among the measures used to infer the causes of decline. The causes of decline may act directly on individual fitness and survival, or through disruption of population processes. We examined the relationships among configuration, extent and status of native vegetation and three commonly used indicators of individual body condition and chronic stress (haemoglobin level, haematocrit, residual body mass condition index) in 13 species of woodland-dependent birds in south-eastern Australia. We also examined two measures of changes to population processes (sex ratio and individual homozygosity) in ten species and alleic richness in five species. We found little support for relationships between site or landscape characteristics and individual or population response variables, notwithstanding that our simulations showed we had sufficient power to detect relatively small effects. We discuss possible causes of the absence of detectable habitat effects in this system and the implications for the usefulness of individual body condition and easily measured haematological indices as indicators of the response of avian populations to habitat change. © 2012 The Authors.

Probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births using age-specific fertility rates by birth order

In this study, a simple analytical framework to find the probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births by making use of data on age-specific fertility rates by birth order was proposed. The proposed framework is applicable to both the period and cohort fertility schedules. The most appealing point of the proposed framework is that it does not require stringent assumptions. The proposed framework has been applied to the cohort birth order-specific fertility schedules of India and its different regions and period birth order-specific fertility schedules, including the United States of America, Russia, and the Netherlands, to demonstrate its usefulness.

Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method

This paper proposes an innovative optimized parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for uncertainty quantification. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) method employs two separate neural network (NN) models to estimate the mean and variance of targets. A new training method is developed in this study that adjusts parameters of NN models through minimization of a PI-based cost functions. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the nonlinear non-differentiable cost function. The performance of the proposed method for PI construction is examined using monthly data sets taken from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for the wind farm power generation are constructed with five confidence levels between 50% and 90%. Demonstrated results indicate that valid PIs constructed using the optimized MVE method have a quality much better than the traditional MVE-based PIs.

Testing dynamic variance-sensitive foraging using individual differences in basal metabolic rates of zebra finches

Social foragers can alternate between searching for food (producer tactic), and searching for other individuals that have located food in order to join them (scrounger tactic). Both tactics yield equal rewards on average, but the rewards generated by producer are more variable. A dynamic variance-sensitive foraging model predicts that social foragers should increase their use of scrounger with increasing energy requirements and/or decreased food availability early in the foraging period. We tested whether natural variation in minimum energy requirements (basal metabolic rate or BMR) is associated with differences in the use of producer–scrounger foraging tactics in female zebra finches Taeniopygia guttata. As predicted by the dynamic variance-sensitive model, high BMR individuals had significantly greater use of the scrounger tactic compared with low BMR individuals. However, we observed no effect of food availability on tactic use, indicating that female zebra finches were not variance-sensitive foragers under our experimental conditions. This study is the first to report that variation in BMR within a species is associated with differences in foraging behaviour. BMR-related differences in scrounger tactic use are consistent with phenotype-dependent tactic use decisions. We suggest that BMR is correlated with another phenotypic trait which itself influences tactic use decisions.

Molecular determination of sex-ratio in Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella offspring

Theory predicts skewed offspring sex-ratios in a range of situations in which the economics of producing the two sexes differ. Offspring sex-ratio skews in birds are relatively scarcely observed compared to other taxa. This could be because avian molecular sexing techniques, which allow young birds to be sexed, have only recently become available. Alternatively, birds may be largely constrained from adaptively manipulating the sex-ratio of their offspring. We used a recently-developed molecular sexing technique for birds to sex 420 Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella offspring from 168 clutches found in Oxfordshire. Clutch sex-ratio of the population did not depart from the expected binomial distribution, and there was no variation in clutch sex-ratio with laying date, breeding attempt, or a variety of habitat variables which were predicted to differentially affect the survival and future reproductive success of offspring of the two sexes. There was no difference in size or growth rate of the sexes and nestling mortality was not sex-biased. Hence, although we can identify possible advantages of manipulating the sex-ratio in this species, it seems not to be used as a breeding strategy. Given the lack of consistent evidence for skewed avian offspring sex-ratios, more experimental work is required to determine whether, and how, birds may adaptively manipulate their offspring sex-ratio.

Recommendations for improved data processing from expired gas analysis indirect calorimetry

There is currently no universally recommended and accepted method of data processing within the science of indirect calorimetry for either mixing chamber or breath-by-breath systems of expired gas analysis. Exercise physiologists were first surveyed to determine methods used to process oxygen consumption ([OV0312]O 2) data, and current attitudes to data processing within the science of indirect calorimetry. Breath-by-breath datasets obtained from indirect calorimetry during incremental exercise were then used to demonstrate the consequences of commonly used time, breath and digital filter post-acquisition data processing strategies. Assessment of the variability in breath-by-breath data was determined using multiple regression based on the independent variables ventilation (VE), and the expired gas fractions for oxygen and carbon dioxide, FEO 2 and FECO2, respectively. Based on the results of explanation of variance of the breath-by-breath [OV0312]O2 data, methods of processing to remove variability were proposed for time-averaged, breath-averaged and digital filter applications. Among exercise physiologists, the strategy used to remove the variability in sequential [OV0312]O2 measurements varied widely, and consisted of time averages (30 sec [38%], 60 sec [18%], 20 sec [11%], 15 sec [8%]), a moving average of five to 11 breaths (10%), and the middle five of seven breaths (7%). Most respondents indicated that they used multiple criteria to establish maximum [OV0312]O 2 ([OV0312]O2max) including: the attainment of age-predicted maximum heart rate (HRmax) [53%], respiratory exchange ratio (RER) >1.10 (49%) or RER >1.15 (27%) and a rating of perceived exertion (RPE) of >17, 18 or 19 (20%). The reasons stated for these strategies included their own beliefs (32%), what they were taught (26%), what they read in research articles (22%), tradition (13%) and the influence of their colleagues (7%). The combination of VE, FEO 2 and FECO2 removed 96-98% of [OV0312]O2 breath-by-breath variability in incremental and steady-state exercise [OV0312]O2 data sets, respectively. Correction of residual error in [OV0312]O2 datasets to 10% of the raw variability results from application of a 30-second time average, 15-breath running average, or a 0.04 Hz low cut-off digital filter. Thus, we recommend that once these data processing strategies are used, the peak or maximal value becomes the highest processed datapoint. Exercise physiologists need to agree on, and continually refine through empirical research, a consistent process for analysing data from indirect calorimetry.

Variance-covariance based weighing for neural network ensembles

Neural network (NN) is a popular artificial intelligence technique for solving complicated problems due to their inherent capabilities. However generalization in NN can be harmed by a number of factors including parameter's initialization, inappropriate network topology and setting parameters of the training process itself. Forecast combinations of NN models have the potential for improved generalization and lower training time. A weighted averaging based on Variance-Covariance method that assigns greater weight to the forecasts producing lower error, instead of equal weights is practiced in this paper. While implementing the method, combination of forecasts is done with all candidate models in one experiment and with the best selected models in another experiment. It is observed during the empirical analysis that forecasting accuracy is improved by combining the best individual NN models. Another finding of this study is that reducing the number of NN models increases the diversity and, hence, accuracy.

Working with 'housing variance' to model urban growth futures with inner metropolitan Melbourne

Continued population growth in Melbourne over the past decade has led to the development of a range of strategies and policies by State and Local levels of government to set an agenda for a more sustainable form of urban development. As the Victorian State government moves towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne', a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050, the following paper addresses the issue of how new residential built form will impact on and be accommodated in existing Inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city in order to meet an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5), the paper presents a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type. As capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations, the research attempts to assess the impact on the urban morphology of a case study of four Major Activity Centres in the municipality of Port Phillip.

How well does second-to-fourth-digit ratio in hands correlate with other indications of masculinity in males?

Low second–to–fourth–digit (2D : 4D) ratios in hands have previously been used as a proxy for prenatal testosterone levels. Moreover, it has recently been suggested that prenatal testosterone levels may direct future masculinization. If true, 2D : 4D ratios should negatively correlate with traits in males that are developed and maintained by testosterone at puberty such as facial and body masculinity and testes volume. We failed to find significant correlations between 2D : 4D ratios and these traits.