Evaluating the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of a 'natural experiment' in the provision of new walking and cycling infrastructure : methods for the core module of the iConnect study

Introduction Improving infrastructure to support walking and cycling is often regarded as fundamental to encouraging their widespread uptake. However, there is little evidence that specific provision of this kind has led to a significant increase in walking or cycling in practice, let alone wider impacts such as changes in overall physical activity or carbon emissions. Connect2 is a major new project that aims to promote walking and cycling in the UK by improving local pedestrian and cycle routes. It therefore provides a useful opportunity to contribute new evidence in this field by means of a natural experimental study.

Methods and analysis iConnect is an independent study that aims to integrate the perspectives of public health and transport research on the measurement and evaluation of the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of the Connect2 programme. In this paper, the authors report the study design and methods for the iConnect core module. This comprised a cohort study of residents living within 5 km of three case study Connect2 projects in Cardiff, Kenilworth and Southampton, supported by a programme of qualitative interviews with key informants about the projects. Participants were asked to complete postal questionnaires, repeated before and after the opening of the new infrastructure, which collected data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, travel, car fuel purchasing and physical activity, and potential psychosocial and environmental correlates and mediators of those behaviours. In the absence of suitable no-intervention control groups, the study design drew on heterogeneity in exposure both within and between case study samples to provide for a counterfactual.

Ethics and dissemination The study was approved by the University of Southampton Research Ethics Committee. The findings will be disseminated through academic presentations, peer-reviewed publications and the study website (http://www.iconnect.ac.uk) and by means of a national seminar at the end of the study.

Prediction intervals to account for uncertainties in travel time prediction

The accurate prediction of travel times is desirable but frequently prone to error. This is mainly attributable to both the underlying traffic processes and the data that are used to infer travel time. A more meaningful and pragmatic approach is to view travel time prediction as a probabilistic inference and to construct prediction intervals (PIs), which cover the range of probable travel times travelers may encounter. This paper introduces the delta and Bayesian techniques for the construction of PIs. Quantitative measures are developed and applied for a comprehensive assessment of the constructed PIs. These measures simultaneously address two important aspects of PIs: 1) coverage probability and 2) length. The Bayesian and delta methods are used to construct PIs for the neural network (NN) point forecasts of bus and freeway travel time data sets. The obtained results indicate that the delta technique outperforms the Bayesian technique in terms of narrowness of PIs with satisfactory coverage probability. In contrast, PIs constructed using the Bayesian technique are more robust against the NN structure and exhibit excellent coverage probability.

Insights into international travel by students

Although research on international travelers abounds in the literature, international travel by students remains a neglected area of research. This article reports the findings from a survey of 370 university students in New Zealand. The survey identified student motives for undertaking international travel, the planning process, and the preferred destinations and methods of financing international trips. Logit models were developed and estimated for two important aspects of international travel by students. In addition, the study also included cross-cultural comparisons of travel behavior. The findings indicate that students traveling overseas represent a distinct market with specific needs and preferences. Travel behaviors vary significantly for different cultures and the article shows that it is possible to model such behaviors.

Is a change in mode of travel to school associated with a change in overall physical activity levels in children? Longitudinal results from the SPEEDY study

Background
Children who use active modes of travel (walking or cycling) to school are more physically active than those who use passive (motorised) modes. However, less is known on whether a change in mode of travel to school is associated with a change in children’s physical activity levels. The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the association between change in mode of travel to school and change in overall physical activity levels in children.

Methods
Data from 812 9–10 year old British children (59% girls) who participated in the SPEEDY study were analysed. During the summer terms of 2007 and 2008 participants completed a questionnaire and wore an accelerometer for at least three days. Two-level multiple linear regression models were used to explore the association between change in usual mode of travel to school and change in objectively measured time spent in MVPA.

Results
Compared to children whose reported mode of travel did not change, a change from a passive to an active mode of travel was associated with an increase in daily minutes spent in MVPA (boys: beta 11.59, 95% CI 0.94 to 22.24; girls: beta 11.92, 95% CI 5.00 to 18.84). This increase represented 12% of boys’ and 13% of girls’ total daily time spent in MVPA at follow-up.

Conclusion
This analysis provides further evidence that promoting active travel to school may have a role in contributing to increasing physical activity levels in children.

Change in active travel and changes in recreational and total physical activity in adults : longitudinal findings from the iConnect study

Background : To better understand the health benefits of promoting active travel, it is important to understand the relationship between a change in active travel and changes in recreational and total physical activity.

Methods : These analyses, carried out in April 2012, use longitudinal data from 1628 adult respondents (mean age 54 years; 47% male) in the UK-based iConnect study. Travel and recreational physical activity were measured using detailed seven-day recall instruments. Adjusted linear regression models were fitted with change in active travel defined as ‘decreased’ (<−15 min/week), ‘maintained’ (±15 min/week) or ‘increased’ (>15 min/week) as the primary exposure variable and changes in (a) recreational and (b) total physical activity (min/week) as the primary outcome variables.

Results : Active travel increased in 32% (n=529), was maintained in 33% (n=534) and decreased in 35% (n=565) of respondents. Recreational physical activity decreased in all groups but this decrease was not greater in those whose active travel increased. Conversely, changes in active travel were associated with commensurate changes in total physical activity. Compared with those whose active travel remained unchanged, total physical activity decreased by 176.9 min/week in those whose active travel had decreased (adjusted regression coefficient −154.9, 95% CI −195.3 to −114.5) and was 112.2 min/week greater among those whose active travel had increased (adjusted regression coefficient 135.1, 95% CI 94.3 to 175.9).

Conclusion : An increase in active travel was associated with a commensurate increase in total physical activity and not a decrease in recreational physical activity.

Time series analysis of air transportation service quality and travel demand in Japan

The evolution of domestic air travel service in Japan is a product of many factors including airline responses to the changing aviation market, government interventions in terms of regulatory/deregulatory policies, infrastructure investments, and changes in market structure. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the changing quality of passenger airline service and its implications in the domestic aviation market in Japan using qualitative review and a time series analysis of the domestic airline markets from 1986 to 2003. The results show that to meet the ultimate aim of deregulation to increase air passengers’ welfare gain, there is a need to instill measures to correct service imbalance and to create innovative airport demand-capacity management measures.

Exploring the conceptual boundaries of diaspora and battlefield tourism: Australians' travel to the Gallipoli battlefield, Turkey, as a case study

Historical tourism resources associated with diasporic communities and battlefields would at face value appear to have little in common. On closer inspection, however, diaspora and battlefield tourism share several elements in common. These commonalities are explored in greater detail, with an eye to investigating battlefield tourism sites indelibly linked to the birth of modern nations, where it is argued that there is a particularly blurred boundary between these two forms of tourism that must be recognized. 

The Gallipoli battlefield, Turkey, provides the contextual anchor for this discussion in suggesting that a key reason Australians travel to this foreign place to is to find out what it means to be an Australian. The prominence of this battlefield in the psyche of Australians is borne out of the involvement of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (Anzac) in the First World War campaign that commenced at what is now known as Anzac Cove at Gallipoli on April 25, 1915. This campaign was the first united action of the fledging Australian nation bought together through federation in 1901.

Qualitative data collected from Australians visiting the Gallipoli battlefields in Turkey during 2010 is used to explore whether the experiences of those traveling to battlefields strongly associated with nation building legends and stories resemble those of diasporic tourists in seeking to return to their homeland. Emerging from the analysis, the confines of the blurred boundary between diaspora tourism and battlefield tourism is discussed in detail and an associated research agenda is proposed that aims to further clarify the scope of these concepts in relation to the broad spectrum of heritage tourism resources.

Checked baggage: spatial negotiations in contemporary air travel

This paper examines the act of undertaking international air travel and analyses how it forces individuals to consider a range of ideas as a result of dislocation and attempts to re-align themselves within spatial, material and biological structures. In order to balance the shifts between spatial and material experiences, travellers employ imaginative and perceptive procedures, gaining knowledge through experience. At the intersection of participatory and spatial boundaries through the lens of multi-disciplinary literature, this paper explores how practices of individuals within international air travel provides alternative modes of thinking and navigating through personal, cultural and globalised public spaces.