Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

Characteristics and applications of energy storage system to power network - A review

Maintaining reliability and stability of a power systems in transmission and distribution level becomes a big challenge in present scenario. Grid operators are always responsible to maintain equilibrium between available power generation and demand of end users. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or integration of any renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and to facilitate more renewable energy sources with the grid, energy storage system (ESS) started to be playing an important role with the advancement of the state of the art technology. ESS can also help to get reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network from large scale (above 50MW) to small scale (up to 100KW). Based on the characteristics, each storage technology has their own merits and demerits. This paper carried out extensive review study and verifies merits and demerits of each storage technology and identifies the suitable technology for the future. This paper also has conducted feasibility study with the aid of E-SelectTM tool for various ES technologies in applications point of view at different grid locations. This review study helps to evaluate feasible ES technology for a particular electrical application and also helps to develop smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in efficient way.

Prospects of renewable energy in semi-arid region

Continuous usage of fossil fuels and other conventional resources to meet the growing demand has resulted in in-creased energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, it is essential to use renewable energy sources for more reliable, effective, sustainable and pollution free transmission and distribution networks. Therefore, to facilitate large-scale integration of renewable energy in particular wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, this paper presents the feasibility analysis for semi-arid climate and finds the most suitable places in North East region of Victoria for re-newable energy generation. For economic and environmental analysis, Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Re-newables (HOMER) has used to investigate the prospects of wind and solar energy considering the Net Present Cost (NPC), Cost of Energy (COE) and Renewable fraction (RF). Six locations are selected from North East region of Victo-ria and simulations are performed. From the feasibility analysis, it can be concluded that Mount Hotham is one of the most suitable locations for wind energy generation while Wangaratta is the most suitable location for solar energy generation. Mount Hotham is also the best suitable locations in North East region for hybrid power systems i.e., com-bination of both wind and solar energy generation.

Distributed agent-based control scheme for single-phase parallel inverters in microgrids with photovoltaic systems

In this paper, an agent-based distributed control scheme is presented to control single-phase parallel inverters in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems connected to microgrids. A communication assisted multi-agent framework is developed within microgrids where agents perform their tasks in a distributed manner with an aim of stabilizing load voltage and current under normal and faulted conditions through the asymptotic tracking of the reference current signal. The distributed agent-based control scheme requires information from the neighboring agents through communication network to decide control actions. The proposed control scheme utilizes Ziegler-Nichols (Z-N) tuning approach to design proportional integral (PI) controllers for controlling inverters within the multi-agent system (MAS). A microgrid with parallel inverter-connected solar PV systems is considered for simulations under normal and faulted conditions where results show the excellency of the proposed agent-based scheme in comparison to the conventional scheme without MAS.

Role of energy storage in the power system network

Today’s power system network is more complex with enhanced responsibility to maintain reliable, stable and quality supply of power at transmission and distribution level. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or any participation of an intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and improve reliability, and stability of power system, an energy storage system (ESS) can be considered as a vital solution. Also ESS can be used to mitigate associated issues of renewable energy sources while integration into the power system network. Thus ESS supports to get a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid effectively. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network for large scale (MW) to small scale (KW) level. Based on the type and characteristics, each storage technology is suitable for a particular role of applications. This paper presents an extensive review study on various types of ES technologies in characteristics and applications point of view. It also demonstrates various applications of ESS in detail. Finally, with the aid of ES-selectTM tool software, a feasibility analysis has been carried out to identify a suitable ES technology for appropriate applications at different grid locations and also helps to develop a smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in future.

Incorporating wind power forecast uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment using neural network-based prediction intervals

Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

Analysis of different scenarios for residential energy management under existing retail market structure

This paper presents an analysis of a residential energy management scheme under existing retail market structure with the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems. In this paper, different scenarios are analyzed with an aim of achieving the most cost-effective solutions for the integration of solar PV and battery energy storage systems. The main idea behind these analyses is to obtain a grid independent residential energy management system through the reduction of purchasing energy from the existing power grid. The results from the analysis of different scenarios for a typical Australian house demonstrate that the shortage of energy during the high loads and excess of energy during the higher output of solar PV system can be reduced with the design of a proper energy management scheme employing a transactive energy management framework.

A Generalized hierarchical transactive energy management framework for residential microgrids

This work develops a transactive energy management system in order to automate the operation and efficiently utilize the energy generated from the solar PV unit and BESS in a single house as well as in the microgrid and provides cost-benefit analysis.

Solar adsorption refrigeration : an alternative/auxiliary way for thermal storage for air conditioning

This paper presents an idea of using solar powered adsorption ice making system as an alternative or an auxiliary way for the traditional ice storage air conditioning systems. A simple solar adsorption refrigeration system runs in intermittent cycle. It makes cooling effect at night, and the cooling effect can be stored for the day use. It fits in well with the cycle of the existing off-peak ice storage air conditioning system. On the top of green effect of the solar powered ice making system, the idea is specifically beneficial for places where the price of the off-peak electricity is not significantly lower than peak price. Based on our many years experience on the solar ice making systems, the paper discusses the technical feature of the solar ice making technology and the solutions we are working on to attack the problems which may have potential damage to application of the solar ice making system for air conditioning purposes.

Design of a distributed power system stabiliser

A new design method for a distributed power system stabiliser for interconnected power systems is introduced in this paper. The stabiliser is of a low order, dynamic and robust. To generate the required local control signals, each local stabiliser requires information about either the rotor speed or the load angle of the other subsystems. A simple MATLAB based design algorithm is given and used on a three-machine unstable power system. The resulting stabiliser is simulated and sample results are presented.

Design of a distributed power system stabiliser

A new design method for a distributed power system stabiliser for interconnected power systems is introduced in this paper. The stabiliser is of a low order, dynamic and robust. To generate the required local control signals, each local stabiliser requires information about either the rotor speed or the load angle of the other subsystems. A simple MATLAB based design algorithm is given and used on a three-machine unstable power system. The resulting stabiliser is simulated and sample results are presented.

Design of electrical infrastructure at container terminal and 'net metering'

Net metering is generally a consumer-based incentive for renewable sources such as wind or solar power systems also referred to as dasiacogenerationdasia. It is still a grey area for container terminals with large electric machines, such as quay cranes, automatic stacking cranes, that can operate in the regenerative mode and export electric energy to the grid. With actual measured electrical data presented for discussion, this paper provides information for the readers to provide a better understanding of their access to net metering, ultilizing their electrical equipment capabilities and be informed for their next negotiation with the power supply company.

Change implementers’ resistance : considering power and resistance in IT implementation projects

Resistance is normally characterized as a set of behaviours located in and belonging to change recipients. Such behaviours are seen to thwart the legitimate aims of both change strategists and the change agents who implement systems and the associated organisational change on the strategists' behalf. However, results from our case study research indicate that resistance can be a property not only of change recipients’ behaviour, but also of change agents and change strategists. The resistance behaviours identified included the failure to follow a prescribed corporate method and template, a refusal to help or listen, a refusal to fix known problems, the display of an adversarial, confrontational, and/or condescending attitude, subversiveness, a poor work ethic, and a refusal to meet requests. This paper argues for a revised conceptualization of resistance as a behaviour that can be demonstrated by any IT project stakeholders, that cannot be divorced from considerations of power in the IT project context.

Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Smart grid

All over the world, electrical power systems are encountering radical change stimulated by the urgent need to decarbonize electricity supply, to swap aging resources and to make effective application of swiftly evolving information and communication technologies (ICTs). All of these goals converge toward one direction; ‘Smart Grid.’ The Smart Grid can be described as the transparent, seamless, and instantaneous two-way delivery of energy information, enabling the electricity industry to better manage energy delivery and transmission and empowering consumers to have more control over energy decisions. Basically, the vision of Smart Grid is to provide much better visibility to lower-voltage networks as well as to permit the involvement of consumers in the function of the power system, mostly through smart meters and Smart Homes. A Smart Grid incorporates the features of advanced ICTs to convey real-time information and facilitate the almost instantaneous stability of supply and demand on the electrical grid. The operational data collected by Smart Grid and its sub-systems will allow system operators to quickly recognize the best line of attack to protect against attacks, susceptibility, and so on, sourced by a variety of incidents. However, Smart Grid initially depends upon knowing and researching key performance components and developing the proper education program to equip current and future workforce with the knowledge and skills for exploitation of this greatly advanced system. The aim of this chapter is to provide a basic discussion of the Smart Grid concept, evolution and components of Smart Grid, environmental impacts of Smart Grid and then in some detail, to describe the technologies that are required for its realization. Even though the Smart Grid concept is not yet fully defined, the chapter will be helpful in describing the key enabling technologies and thus allowing the reader to play a part in the debate over the future of the Smart Grid. The chapter concludes with the experimental description and results of developing a hybrid prediction method for solar power which is applicable to successfully implement the ‘Smart Grid.’