Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Hepatitis C virus infection in South Australian prisoners : seroprevalence, seroconversion, and risk factors

Objectives : To determine entry antibody seroprevalence and seroconversion to hepatitis C virus (HCV) and associated risk factors in newly incarcerated prisoners.

Methods : Males and females entering South Australian prisons completed risk factor surveys and were offered HCV-antibody testing. Participants completed additional surveys and, if HCV-negative at last test, underwent further antibody tests at 3-monthly intervals for up to 15 months. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate techniques.

Results : HCV seroprevalence among 662 prison entrants was estimated at 42%. Previous injecting history was highly prevalent at entry (64%) and both community and prison injecting independently predicted entry HCV status. Tattooing was not an important risk factor. While community exposure could not be ruled out, three seroconversions were noted in 148 initially HCV-seronegative individuals occurring in a median 121 days – 4.6 per 100 person-years. Prison injecting was infrequently reported, but HCV-seropositive participants were significantly more likely to commence IDU in prison than seronegative participants (p = 0.035).

Conclusions : Entry HCV seroprevalence in South Australian prisoners is extremely high and may have contributed to a ‘ceiling effect’, minimizing the observable seroconversion rate. Greater frequency of injecting among those already infected with HCV represents a significant threat to other prisoners and prison staff.

Pharmacist assessment of adherence, risk and treatment in cardiovascular disease (PAART CVD)

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) accounts for 18% of disease burden in Australia, and 35% of deaths. Evidence- based management of CVD risk requires systematic consideration of individual risk factors and overall CVD risk, and a balanced approach to lifestyle modification, the optimal use of medicines, and medicines adherence.

This project examines a pHot model for primary prevention of CVD in community pharmacy aimed at improving quality of care. Pharmacists from ten pharmacies received training in CVD risk factor management and facilitating patient lifestyle modification.

They recruited 70 participants aged 50-74 years, taking medicines for blood pressure (BP) or cholesterol, and without diabetes or CVD, At baseline, research assistants conducted a clinical assessment of anthropometric and biomedical risk factors, and conducted interviews to examine health behaviours, medicines use and related issues. Data was analysed by a consultant pharmacist and summary reports produced, with recommendations and targets for risk reduction. These were addressed by patients and their community pharmacists over five monthly sessions. At follow up, the relative risk reduction for CVD onset over the next five years was 24%, contributed to by reductions in mean systolic BP (-7mmHg), diastolic PP (-5 mmHg), total:HDL cholesterol ratio (—0.2), waist circumference (—2cm in males, —0.7cm in females) and other risk factors.

Several key health behaviours improved, including diet quality and physical activity levels. Prevalence of non-adherence to cardiovascular medicines dropped by 1 6% to 22%.

The potential health benefits from this intervention need to be confirmed via larger, controlled clinical trials. Overall, this appears to be a feasible and potentially effective public health measure.

Risk factors for chronic insomnia following hospitalisation

Aim. This paper reports a study whose purpose was to determine whether there is an increase in the incidence of chronic insomnia following hospitalization and, if so, to identify patients at risk.

Background. The consequences of difficulty sleeping in hospital have received scant attention from clinicians or researchers. Implicit in this lack of interest is the assumption that difficulty in sleeping is a transient reaction to hospitalization that will resolve on discharge, an assumption not empirically supported. It has been argued that in susceptible people this type of temporary disruption to sleep can be the catalyst for the development of chronic insomnia.

Method. Established sleep and depression rating instruments were used to monitor the sleep of 57 cardiac and 29 orthopaedic patients after elective surgery (n = 86), recruited through a hospital preadmission clinic.

Results. Preadmission chronic insomnia of 10% was consistent with general population prevalence estimates of 6–12%. Three months after discharge the incidence had almost doubled to 19%. Sixty-one per cent of this variance could be explained by hyperarousal, sleep hygiene issues, and dysfunctional cognitions about sleep. Depression was found to be a salient predictor but not an independent risk factor. Age, sex, and hospital-related data, such as score for difficulty sleeping in hospital, proved to be statistically insignificant.

Conclusions. The results support the role of hyperarousal and dysfunctional sleep attitudes and behaviours as stronger predictors of chronic insomnia than patient demographics or environmental issues. Given that most of the patients were ambivalent about how they slept in hospital, with high satisfaction (71%) in the presence of significant disruption (63%), preadmission sleep education given to these patients prior to admission potentially contributed to the development of more realistic expectations of the quality of in-hospital sleep.

Level of urbanization and noncommunicable disease risk factors in Tamil Nadu, India

Objective To investigate the poorly understood relationship between the process of urbanization and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) through the application of a quantitative measure of urbanicity.

Methods We constructed a measure of the urban environment for seven areas using a seven-item scale based on data from the Census of India 2001 to develop an “urbanicity” scale. The scale was used in conjunction with data collected from 3705 participants in the World Health Organization’s 2003 STEPwise risk factor surveillance survey in Tamil Nadu, India, to analyse the relationship between the urban environment and major NCD risk factors. Linear and logistic regression models were constructed examining the relationship between urbanicity and chronic disease risk.

Findings
Among men, urbanicity was positively associated with smoking (odds ratio, OR: 3.54; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.4–5.1), body mass index (OR: 7.32; 95% CI: 4.0–13.6), blood pressure (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.4–2.7) and low physical activity (OR: 3.26; 95% CI: 2.5–4.3). Among women, urbanicity was positively associated with low physical activity (OR: 4.13; 95% CI: 3.0–5.7) and high body mass index (OR: 6.48; 95% CI: 4.6–9.2). In both sexes urbanicity was positively associated with the mean number of servings of fruit and vegetables consumed per day (P < 0.05).

Conclusion
Urbanicity is associated with the prevalence of several NCD risk factors in Tamil Nadu, India.

Engaging community pharmacists in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease : protocol for the pharmacist assessment of adherence, risk and treatment in cardiovascular disease (PAART CVD) pilot study

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally. Community pharmacist intervention studies have demonstrated clinical effectiveness for improving several leading individual CVD risk factors. Primary prevention strategies increasingly emphasise the need for consideration of overall cardiovascular risk and concurrent management of multiple risk factors. It is therefore important to demonstrate the feasibility of multiple risk factor management by community pharmacists to ensure continued currency of their role.
Methods/Design: This study will be a longitudinal pre- and post-test pilot study with a single cohort of up to 100 patients in ten pharmacies. Patients aged 50-74 years with no history of heart disease or diabetes, and taking antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medicines, will be approached for participation. Assessment of cardiovascular risk, medicines use and health behaviours will be undertaken by a research assistant at baseline and following the intervention (6 months). Validated interview scales will be used where available. Baseline data will be used by accredited medicines management pharmacists to generate a report for the treating community pharmacist. This report will highlight individual patients’ overall CVD risk and individual risk factors, as well as identifying modifiable
health behaviours for risk improvement and suggesting treatment and behavioural goals. The treating community pharmacist will use this information to finalise and implement a treatment plan in conjunction with the patient and their doctor. Community pharmacists will facilitate patient improvements in lifestyle, medicines adherence, and medicines management over the course of five counselling sessions with monthly intervals. The primary outcome will be the change to average overall cardiovascular risk, assessed using the Framingham risk equation.
Discussion: This study will assess the feasibility of implementing holistic primary CVD prevention programs into community pharmacy, one of the most accessible health services in most developed countries.

Habitual physical activity and the risk for depressive and anxiety disorders among older men and women

Background: Regular physical activity is generally associated with psychological well-being, although there are relatively few prospective studies in older adults. We investigated habitual physical activity as a risk factor for de novo depressive and anxiety disorders in older men and women from the general population.
Methods: In this nested case-control study, subjects aged 60 years or more were identified from randomly selected cohorts being followed prospectively in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Cases were individuals with incident depressive or anxiety disorders, diagnosed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR (SCID-I/NP); controls had no history of these disorders.Habitual physical activity,measured using a validated questionnaire, and other exposures were documented at baseline, approximately four years prior to psychiatric interviews. Those with depressive or anxiety disorders that pre-dated baseline were excluded.
Results: Of 547 eligible subjects, 14 developed de novo depressive or anxiety disorders and were classified as cases; 533 controls remained free of disease. Physical activity was protective against the likelihood of depressive and anxiety disorders; OR = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32–0.94), p = 0.03; each standard deviation increase in the transformed physical activity score was associated with an approximate halving in the likelihood of developing depressive or anxiety disorders. Leisure-time physical activity contributed substantially to the overall physical activity score. Age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, weight and socioeconomic status did not substantially confound the association.
Conclusion: This study provides evidence consistent with the notion that higher levels of habitual physical activity are protective against the subsequent risk of development of de novo depressive and anxiety disorders.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors : an economic modelling study from Australia

Background
A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.
Methods
Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.
Results
Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.
Conclusions
Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

Potential of pharmacists to help reduce the burden of poorly managed cardiovascular risk

Introduction: Rural areas require better use of existing health professionals to ensure capacity to deliver improved cardiovascular outcomes. Community pharmacists (CPs) are accessible to most communities and can potentially undertake expanded roles in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Objective: This study aims to establish frequency of contact with general practitioners (GPs) and CPs by patients at high risk of CVD or with inadequately controlled CVD risk factors.

Design, setting and participants: Population survey using randomly selected individuals from the Wimmera region electoral roll and incorporating a physical health check and self-administered health questionnaire. Overall, 1500 were invited to participate.

Results: The participation rate was 51% when ineligible individuals were excluded. Nine out of 10 participants visited one or both types of practitioner in the previous 12 months. Substantially more participants visited GPs compared with CPs (88.5% versus 66.8%). With the exception of excess alcohol intake, the median number of opportunities to intervene for every inadequately controlled CVD risk factor and among high risk patient groups at least doubled for the professions combined when compared with GP visits alone.

Conclusion: Opportunities exist to intervene more frequently with target groups by engaging CPs more effectively but would require a significant attitude shift towards CPs. Mechanisms for greater pharmacist integration into primary care teams should be investigated.

Five-year change in cardiovascular risk factors according to education level : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) study

Background: Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is strongly associated with a higher prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors, but few studies have examined changes in these risk factors over time according to SES. We aimed to determine whether SES is a predictor of the change in cardiovascular risk factor levels in a contemporary Australian adult cohort

Methods: Participants in the population-based AusDiab study aged 25+ years who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 954) were categorised according to their level of education at baseline. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement. Analysis was stratified by gender.

Results: The mean levels of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and the prevalence of smoking decreased between the two time points across all educational categories. Increases were also seen in mean BMI and the prevalence of diabetes. For blood pressure, the smallest decrease was seen among men with lower education (age-adjusted difference from higher education 2.8 mmHg, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.6). For total cholesterol, the decrease was greatest among women with lower education (age-adjusted difference from higher education 0.11 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.02). Among those "not at risk" at baseline for each risk factor, women with lower education were more likely than those with higher education to progress to being "at risk" for BMI (age-adjusted odds ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.35).

Conclusion: Educational gradients narrowed for total cholesterol in women, but widened for systolic blood pressure in men and remained static for other risk factors. Lower education was also associated with an earlier onset of overweight or obesity in women. Given current socioeconomic gradients in risk factors levels, these findings suggest that social inequalities in CVD will persist and may even widen in the future.

Incidence of cardiovascular risk factors by education level 2000-2005 : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) cohort study

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher prevalence of major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, few longitudinal studies have examined the association between SES and CVD risk factors over time. We aimed to determine whether SES, using education as a proxy, is associated with the onset of CVD risk factors over 5 years in an Australian adult cohort study.

Participants in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) study aged 25 years and over who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 967) were categorised according to educational attainment. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement.

Women with lower education had a greater risk of progressing from normal weight to overweight or obesity than those with higher education (age-adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.06-2.31). Both men and women with lower education were more likely to develop diabetes (age-adjusted OR from higher education 1.75, 95% CI 1.14-2.71 and 3.01, 95% CI 1.26-7.20, respectively). A lower level of education was associated with a greater number of risk factors accumulated over time in women (OR of progressing from having two or less risk factors at baseline to three or more at follow up, 2.04, 95% 1.32-3.14).

In this Australian population-based study, lower educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of developing both individual and total CVD risk factors over a 5-year period. These findings suggest that SES inequalities in CVD will persist into the future.

Suboptimal management of cardiovascular risk factors in coronary heart disease patients in primary care occurs particularly in women

Background:  Patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) are at the highest risk of further events. Despite proven therapies, secondary prevention is often suboptimal. General practitioners (GPs) are in an ideal position to improve secondary prevention.

Aim:  To contrast management of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with established CHD in primary care to those in clinical guidelines and according to gender.

Methods:  GPs throughout Australia were approached to participate in a programme incorporating a disease management software (mdCare) program. Participating practitioners (1258 GPs) recruited individual patients whose cardiovascular risk factor levels were measured.

Results:  The mdCare programme included 12 509 patients (58% male) diagnosed with CHD. Their mean age was 71.7 years (intra-quartile range 66–78) for men and 74 years (intra-quartile range 68–80) for women. Low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol was above target levels in 69% (2032) of women compared with 58% (2487) in men (P < 0.0001). There was also a higher proportion of women with total cholesterol above target levels (76%, 3592) compared with men (57%, 3787) (P < 0.0001). In patients who were prescribed lipid-lowering medication, 53% (2504) of men and 72% (2285) of women continued to have a total cholesterol higher than recommended target levels (P < 0.0001). Overall, over half (52%, 6538) had at least five cardiovascular risk factors (55% (2914) in women and 50% (3624) in men, P < 0.0001).

Conclusion:  This study found less intensive management of cardiovascular risk factors in CHD patients, particularly among women, despite equivalent cardiovascular risk. This study has shown that these patients have multiple risk factors where gender also plays a role.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background While the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. The authors examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship.

Methods Adults (n=38 355) aged 40–69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990–1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports.

Results CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only, compared with those who had completed tertiary education, with an HR of 1.66 (95% CI 1.10 to 2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared with the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups.

Conclusions Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socio-economic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socio-economic groups.

The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality

Background The role of the duration of obesity as an independent risk factor for mortality has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between the duration of obesity and the risk of mortality.

Methods A total of 5036 participants (aged 28–62 years) of the Framingham Cohort Study were followed up every 2 years from 1948 for up to 48 years. The association between obesity duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was analysed using time-dependent Cox models adjusted for body mass index. The role of biological intermediates and chronic diseases was also explored.

Results The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality increased as the number of years lived with obesity increased. For those who were obese for 1–4.9, 5–14.9, 15–24.9 and ≥25 years of the study follow-up period, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27–1.79], 1.94 (95% CI 1.71–2.20), 2.25 (95% CI 1.89–2.67) and 2.52 (95% CI 2.08–3.06), respectively, compared with those who were never obese. A dose–response relation between years of duration of obesity was also clear for all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other-cause mortality. For every additional 2 years of obesity, the HRs for all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer and other-cause mortality were 1.06 (95% CI 1.05–1.07), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.08), 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.11), respectively.

Conclusions The number of years lived with obesity is directly associated with the risk of mortality. This needs to be taken into account when estimating its burden on mortality.

The duration of obesity and the risk of type-2 diabetes

Objective The evidence for the association between obesity and the risk of type 2 diabetes has been derived mainly from the analysis of the degree of obesity. The role of the duration of obesity as an independent risk has not been fully explored. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between the duration of obesity and the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Design Prospective cohort study.

Setting The Framingham Heart Study (FHS), follow-up from 1948 to 1998.

Subjects A total of 1256 FHS participants who were free from type 2 diabetes at baseline, but were obese on at least two consecutive of the study’s twenty-four biennial examinations, were included. Type 2 diabetes status was collected throughout the 48 years of follow-up of the study. The relationship between duration of obesity and type 2 diabetes was analysed using time-dependent Cox models, adjusting for a number of covariates.

Results The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the risk of type 2 diabetes for men was 1·13 (95 % CI 1·09, 1·17) and for women was 1·12 (95 % CI 1·08, 1·16) per additional 2-year increase in the duration of obesity. Adjustment for sociodemographic variables, family history of diabetes, health behaviour and physical activity made little difference to these HR. For women the evidence of a dose–response relationship was less clear than for men, particularly for women with an older age at obesity onset.

Conclusions The duration of obesity is a relevant risk factor for type 2 diabetes, independent of the degree of BMI.