Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis

Risk analysis is one of the critical functions of the risk management process. It relies on a detailed understanding of risks and their possible implications. Construction projects, because of their large and complex nature, are plagued by a variety of risks which must be considered and responded to in order to ensure project success. This study conducts an extensive comparative analysis of major quantitative risk analysis techniques in the construction industry. The techniques discussed and comparatively analyzed in this report include: Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Judgmental Risk Analysis Process (JRAP), Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA), Monte Carlo Simulation technique, Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review (CASPAR), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis technique (FMEA) and Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management model (APRAM). The findings highlight the fact that each risk analysis technique addresses risks in any or all of the following areas – schedule risks, budget risks or technical risks. Through comparative analysis, it has been revealed that a majority of risk analysis techniques focus on schedule or budget risks. Very little has been documented in terms of technical risk analysis techniques. In an era where clients are demanding and expecting higher quality projects and finishes, project managers must endeavor to invest time and resources to ensure that the few existing technical risk analysis techniques are developed and further refined, and that new technical risk analysis techniques are developed to suit the current construction industries requirements.

Quantitative determination of fatty acid compositions in micro-encapsulated fish-oil supplements using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy

The research describes a rapid method for the determination of fatty acid (FA) contents in a micro-encapsulated fish-oil (μEFO) supplement by using attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopic technique and partial least square regression (PLSR) analysis. Using the ATR-FTIR technique, the μEFO powder samples can be directly analysed without any pre-treatment required, and our developed PLSR strategic approach based on the acquired spectral data led to production of a good linear calibration with R^₂ = 0.99. In addition, the subsequent predictions acquired from an independent validation set for the target FA compositions (i.e., total oil, total omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA) were highly accurate when compared to the actual values obtained from standard GC-based technique, with plots between predicted versus actual values resulting in excellent linear fitting (R² ⩾ 0.96) in all cases. The study therefore demonstrated not only the substantial advantage of the ATR-FTIR technique in terms of rapidness and cost effectiveness, but also its potential application as a rapid, potentially automated, online monitoring technique for the routine analysis of FA composition in industrial processes when used together with the multivariate.

Life quality and wealth : a qualitative and quantitative comparison of affluent and poor people

It is well-documented that auent people, on average, have higher subjective wellbeing (SWB) than do poor people. is phenomenon has been explained using SWB homeostasis theory. However, a more precise understanding of the dierences in personal experience that lead to homeostatic failure remains to be documented. We sought such understanding through qualitative interviews and a quantitative examination of SWB domains. Twenty auent people and 20 people dependent on social welfare completed an interview and the Personal Wellbeing Index. As expected, the two groups diered signicantly in SWB. Moreover, the poor group reported a preponderance of negative life experiences while the auent group concentrated on the positive events in their lives. Most telling was the nding that both the qualitative and quantitative methods identied the area of ‘relationships’ as representing the greatest degree of divergence between the two groups. is life domain is especially relevant in the maintenance of normative levels of SWB.

Using quantitative and qualitative unit profiling for identifying the contribution of library resources to teaching quality

This paper presents the development and application of a new methodology incorporating both quantitative and qualitative profiling to help discern the characteristics of units of study that are the differentiators of student ratings of library resource quality. From the sub-set of those units with an ‘unremarkable’ rating for teaching quality, those units with the ‘extreme’ library resource quality ratings were selected for investigation. Examination of the handbook descriptions for those units suggests that units of study which explicitly incorporate student interaction with the wider literature and other information resources beyond those provided within the unit environment may lead students to engage with the library in deeper ways that highlight the value of library resources, and hence lead to higher mean ratings of library resource quality. This finding suggests potential areas for intervention to enhance student perceptions of the quality of library resources.

Quantitative experimental comparison of single-beam, sidescan, and multibeam benthic habitat maps

Map comparison is a relatively uncommon practice in acoustic seabed classification to date, contrary to the field of land remote sensing, where it has been developed extensively over recent decades. The aim here is to illustrate the benefits of map comparison in the underwater realm with a case study of three maps independently describing the seabed habitats of the Te Matuku Marine Reserve (Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand). The maps are obtained from a QTC View classification of a single-beam echosounder (SBES) dataset, manual segmentation of a sidescan sonar (SSS) mosaic, and automatic classification of a backscatter dataset from a multibeam echosounder (MBES). The maps are compared using pixel-to-pixel similarity measures derived from the literature in land remote sensing. All measures agree in presenting the MBES and SSS maps as the most similar, and the SBES and SSS maps as the least similar. The results are discussed with reference to the potential of MBES backscatter as an alternative to SSS mosaic for imagery segmentation and to the potential of joint SBES–SSS survey for improved habitat mapping. Other applications of map-similarity measures in acoustic classification of the seabed are suggested.

Iniatives to reduce the use of seclusion and restraints on people with developmental disabilities: a systematic review and quantitative synthesis

Contrary to the expectations articulated in public policy, restrictive interventions are commonly used in support services for people with developmental disabilities. This systematic review and quantitative synthesis was undertaken to investigate whether the use of seclusion and restraints on people with developmental disabilities can be reduced. Searches of the Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO electronic databases returned 7226 records, of which 11 met the inclusion criteria for this review. A further 3 papers were obtained through scanning the reference lists of those articles included from the initial literature search. All 14 studies were single-subject designs focusing on initiatives to reduce physical or mechanical restraint. Between the baseline and intervention phases, there were mean reductions in the frequency and duration of restraint use of 79% (SD = 21%, n = 13 subjects from 7 studies) and 45% (SD = 58%, n = 10 subjects from 6 studies), respectively. For studies in which restraint use to manage agitation and aggression was targeted, there was a 79% (SD = 21%, n = 13 subjects from 7 studies) decrease in the frequency and a 28% (SD = 67%, n = 6 subjects from 3 studies) reduction in the duration of restraint. With respect to studies in which restraint use to prevent self-harm was targeted, there was a 71% (SD = 34%, n = 4 subjects from 3 studies) reduction in restraint use. Effect sizes were calculable, using non-overlap approaches, for 9 of the 14 studies. The magnitudes of the effect sizes suggest that, on average, the interventions were effective in reducing the use of restraints. The effects generated in studies where restraint use for self-harm was targeted were typically more pronounced than those in which restraint use for agitation and aggression was addressed. There were broad variations, however, in the percentage reductions in restraint use and in the magnitudes of the effect sizes. Although the findings of this review are encouraging, more research is needed, in which greater attention must be paid to rigorous research design, application, and analysis.

Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.