Spherulitic networks : from structure to rheological property

A finite element method based on ABAQUS is employed to examine the correlation between the microstructure and the elastic response of planar Cayley treelike fiber networks. It is found that the elastic modulus of the fiber network decreases drastically with the fiber length, following the power law. The power law of elastic modulus G′ vs the correlation length ξ obtained from this simulation has an exponent of −1.71, which is close to the exponent of −1.5 for a single-domain network of agar gels. On the other hand, the experimental results from multidomain networks give rise to a power law index of −0.49. The difference between −1.5 and −0.49 can be attributed to the multidomain structure, which weakens the structure of the overall system and therefore suppresses the increase in G′. In addition, when the aspect ratio of the fiber is smaller than 20, the radius of the fiber cross-section has a great impact on the network elasticity, while, when the aspect ratio is larger than 20, it has almost no effect on the elastic property of the network. The stress distribution in the network is uniform due to the symmetrical network structure. This study provides a general understanding of the correlation between microscopic structure and the macroscopic properties of soft functional materials.

Suitability of chlorine bulk decay models for planning and management of water distribution systems

Effective disinfection planning and management in large, complex water distribution systems requires an accurate network water quality model. This model should be based on reaction kinetics, which describes disinfectant loss from bulk water over time, within experimental error. Models in the literature were reviewed for their ability to meet this requirement in real networks. Essential features were identified as accuracy, simplicity, computational efficiency, and ability to describe consistently the effects of initial chlorine dose, temperature variation, and successive rechlorinations. A reaction scheme of two organic constituents reacting with free chlorine was found to be necessary and sufficient to provide the required features. Recent release of the multispecies extension (MSX) to EPANET and MWH Soft's H2OMap Water MSX network software enables users to implement this and other multiple-reactant bulk decay models in real system simulations.

Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting

Evolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.

Emotional reactions to real-world events in social networks

A convergence of emotions among people in social networks is potentially resulted by the occurrence of an unprecedented event in real world. E.g., a majority of bloggers would react angrily at the September 11 terrorist attacks. Based on this observation, we introduce a sentiment index, computed from the current mood tags in a collection of blog posts utilizing an affective lexicon, potentially revealing subtle events discussed in the blogosphere. We then develop a method for extracting events based on this index and its distribution. Our second contribution is establishment of a new bursty structure in text streams termed a sentiment burst. We employ a stochastic model to detect bursty periods of moods and the events associated. Our results on a dataset of more than 12 million mood-tagged blog posts over a 4-year period have shown that our sentiment-based bursty events are indeed meaningful, in several ways.

Adaptation of LEACH routing protocol to cognitive radio sensor networks

One of the drawbacks of LEACH protocol is the uncontrolled selection of cluster heads which, in some rounds, leads to the concentration of them in a limited area due to the randomness of the selection procedure. LEACH-C is a variant of LEACH that uses a centralized clustering algorithm and forms good clusters through sink control. According to experimental results, the IEEE 802.15.4 packets are damaged by WLAN interferences in ISM band. It seems that, sensor nodes equipped with cognitive radio capabilities can overcome this problem. In cognitive radio sensor networks (CRSN), routing must be accompanied by channel allocation. This requires spectrum management which can be devolved to cluster heads. For this networks, new duty cycle mechanisms must be designed that jointly consider neighbor discovery, and spectrum sensing/allocation. Cluster-based network architecture is a good choice for effective dynamic spectrum management. In such architecture, cluster heads have a proper spatial distribution and are optimally located all over the network. In this paper, using the physical layer information and preserving the feature of random cluster head selection in LEACH, it has been tried to both move the position of cluster heads to appropriate locations and make their quantity optimal. The simulation results show that the transferal of cluster heads to appropriate locations increases the network lifetime significantly though this comes at the price of early instability appearance. By considering the energy level in cluster head election algorithm, one can overcome the network stability issues too. However, this will move the cluster heads away from their appropriate locations. © 2012 IEEE.

Sociospatial distribution of access to facilities for moderate and vigorous intensity physical activity in Scotland by different modes of transport

Background People living in neighbourhoods of lower socioeconomic status have been shown to have higher rates of obesity and a lower likelihood of meeting physical activity recommendations than their more affluent counterparts. This study examines the sociospatial distribution of access to facilities for moderate or vigorous intensity physical activity in Scotland and whether such access differs by the mode of transport available and by Urban Rural Classification. Methods A database of all fixed physical activity facilities was obtained from the national agency for sport in Scotland. Facilities were categorised into light, moderate and vigorous intensity activity groupings before being mapped. Transport networks were created to assess the number of each type of facility accessible from the population weighted centroid of each small area in Scotland on foot, by bicycle, by car and by bus. Multilevel modelling was used to investigate the distribution of the number of accessible facilities by small area deprivation within urban, small town and rural areas separately, adjusting for population size and local authority. Results Prior to adjustment for Urban Rural Classification and local authority, the median number of accessible facilities for moderate or vigorous intensity activity increased with increasing deprivation from the most affluent or second most affluent quintile to the most deprived for all modes of transport. However, after adjustment, the modelling results suggest that those in more affluent areas have significantly higher access to moderate and vigorous intensity facilities by car than those living in more deprived areas. Conclusions The sociospatial distributions of access to facilities for both moderate intensity and vigorous intensity physical activity were similar. However, the results suggest that those living in the most affluent neighbourhoods have poorer access to facilities of either type that can be reached on foot, by bicycle or by bus than those living in less affluent areas. This poorer access from the most affluent areas appears to be reversed for those with access to a car.

Polynomial based key predistribution scheme in wireless mesh networks

Wireless mesh networks (WMNs) have the ability to integrate with other networks while providing a fast and cost-saving deployment. The network security is one of important challenge problems in this kind of networks. This paper is focused on key management between mesh and sensor networks. We propose an efficient key pre-distribution scheme based on two polynomials in wireless mesh networks by employing the nature of heterogeneity. Our scheme realizes the property of bloom filters, i.e., neighbor nodes can discover their shared keys but have no knowledge on the different keys possessed by the other node, without the probability of false positive. The analysis presented in this paper shows that our scheme has the ability to establish three different security level keys and achieves the property of self adaptive security for sensor networks with acceptable computation and communication consumption.

Engineering a distributed infrastructure for large-scale cost-effective content dissemination over urban vehicular networks

This paper proposes a practical and cost-effective approach to construct a fully distributed roadside communication infrastructure to facilitate the localized content dissemination to vehicles in the urban area. The proposed infrastructure is composed of distributed lightweight low-cost devices called roadside buffers (RSBs), where each RSB has the limited buffer storage and is able to transmit wirelessly the cached contents to fast-moving vehicles. To enable the distributed RSBs working toward the global optimal performance (e.g., minimal average file download delays), we propose a fully distributed algorithm to determine optimally the content replication strategy at RSBs. Specifically, we first develop a generic analytical model to evaluate the download delay of files, given the probability density of file distribution at RSBs. Then, we formulate the RSB content replication process as an optimization problem and devise a fully distributed content replication scheme accordingly to enable vehicles to recommend intelligently the desirable content files to RSBs. The proposed infrastructure is designed to optimize the global network utility, which accounts for the integrated download experience of users and the download demands of files. Using extensive simulations, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed infrastructure and show that the proposed distributed protocol can approach to the optimal performance and can significantly outperform the traditional heuristics.

Electricity load and price forecasting with influential factors in a deregulated power industry

With the emergence of smart power grid and distributed generation technologies in recent years, there is need to introduce new advanced models for forecasting. Electricity load and price forecasts are two primary factors needed in a deregulated power industry. The performances of the demand response programs are likely to be deteriorated in the absence of accurate load and price forecasting. Electricity generation companies, system operators, and consumers are highly reliant on the accuracy of the forecasting models. However, historical prices from the financial market, weekly price/load information, historical loads and day type are some of the explanatory factors that affect the accuracy of the forecasting. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model that considers different influential factors as feedback to the model is presented. This model is implemented with historical data from the ISO New England. It is observed during experiments that price forecasting is more complicated and hence less accurate than the load forecasting.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

Prediction interval estimation of electricity prices using PSO-tuned support vector machines

Uncertainty of the electricity prices makes the task of accurate forecasting quite difficult for the electricity market participants. Prediction intervals (PIs) are statistical tools which quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future electricity prices. Traditional approaches based on neural networks (NNs) generate PIs at the cost of high computational burden and doubtful assumptions about data distributions. In this work, we propose a novel technique that is not plagued with the above limitations and it generates high-quality PIs in a short time. The proposed method directly generates the lower and upper bounds of the future electricity prices using support vector machines (SVM). Optimal model parameters are obtained by the minimization of a modified PI-based objective function using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The efficiency of the proposed method is illustrated using data from Ontario, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection day-ahead and real-time markets.

Exponential stability for markovian jumping stochastic BAM neural networks with mode-dependent probabilistic time-varying delays and impulse control

Abstract
In this article, an exponential stability analysis of Markovian jumping stochastic bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with mode-dependent probabilistic time-varying delays and impulsive control is investigated. By establishment of a stochastic variable with Bernoulli distribution, the information of probabilistic time-varying delay is considered and transformed into one with deterministic time-varying delay and stochastic parameters. By fully taking the inherent characteristic of such kind of stochastic BAM neural networks into account, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is constructed with as many as possible positive definite matrices which depends on the system mode and a triple-integral term is introduced for deriving the delay-dependent stability conditions. Furthermore, mode-dependent mean square exponential stability criteria are derived by constructing a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional with modes in the integral terms and using some stochastic analysis techniques. The criteria are formulated in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities, which can be checked efficiently by use of some standard numerical packages. Finally, numerical examples and its simulations are given to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed results.

Malware propagation in large-scale networks

Malware is pervasive in networks, and poses a critical threat to network security. However, we have very limited understanding of malware behavior in networks to date. In this paper, we investigate how malware propagates in networks from a global perspective. We formulate the problem, and establish a rigorous two layer epidemic model for malware propagation from network to network. Based on the proposed model, our analysis indicates that the distribution of a given malware follows exponential distribution, power law distribution with a short exponential tail, and power law distribution at its early, late and final stages, respectively. Extensive experiments have been performed through two real-world global scale malware data sets, and the results confirm our theoretical findings.