A tourism demand model for Fiji, 1970-2000

Despite the growing importance of the tourism industry, little is known about the determinants of tourism demand in Fiji. The major findings of analyses of the 1970?2000 period are that growth in income in Fiji?s main source countries for tourists leads to an increase in visitor arrivals, while relative prices and substitute prices negatively impact visitor arrivals in the long run. This implies that Fiji needs to maintain price competitiveness. Empirical evidence was also found that coups impede the short-run growth of the industry.

Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports : an empirical investigation

Fiji is no exception to the rule that exports are an important source of growth and development. In this light, it is important to know the determinants of exports. However, there is no empirical study on Fiji's export demand. This paper uses the modern econometric techniques—in particular, the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration—to investigate whether the standard export demand variables, viz., trading partner income, export price, and competitor price, have a long-run cointegration relationship with Fiji's real exports for the period 1970 to 1999. In addition, the long-run results are also estimated by using the dynamic ordinary least squares and the fully modified ordinary least squares. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The long-run foreign income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities are found to be 0.7 to 0.8, −1.3 to −1.5, and 2.1 to 2.2, respectively.

An empirical analysis of Fiji’s import demand function

Purpose – This paper aims to estimate a disaggregated import demand model for Fiji using relative prices, total consumption, investment expenditure and export expenditure variables for the period 1970 to 2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration to test for a long run relationship is used, while the autoregressive distributed lag model is used to estimate short run and long run elasticities. These methodologies are shown to perform well in small sample sizes, particularly given that the bounds F-test critical values for small sample sizes generated by Narayan in 2004 and 2005 are used.

Findings – Amongst the key results it is found: a long run cointegration relationship among the variables when import demand is the dependent variable; and import demand to be inelastic and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level with respect to all the explanatory variables in both the long-run and the short-run.

Originality/value – The disaggregated import demand model estimated here provides a complete picture of the determinants of Fiji's imports. This model can be used by Fijian policy makers to draw pertinent policies and forecast import demand for Fiji.

The race that stops a nation : the demand for the Melbourne Cup

This article uses the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to estimate the determinants of attendance at the Melbourne Cup from its inception from 1861 to 2002. Following the literature on the demand for professional team sports, attendance is specified as a function of economic, demographic and race-specific factors. The main findings are that real income and population size are the major determinants of attendance in the long run, while in the short run the weather is the most important factor explaining attendance.

The residential demand for electricity in Australia : an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This paper reports estimates of the long- and short-run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in Australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag framework. In the long run, we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand, while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant. Our estimates of long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies, although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates. As expected, the short-run elasticities are much smaller than the long-run elasticities, and the coefficients on the error-correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short-run energy appliances are fixed.

Electricity consumption in G7 countries : a panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities

This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run and short-run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in G7 countries. The panel results indicate that in the long-run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic. The study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the G7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand, and thus curb carbon emissions, in the long run.

An online cross border contract for ecommerce transactions

The thesis identifies the deficiencies in the international legal framework that has been constructed in order to facilitate and provide certainty with online cross-border transactions. The thesis finds that it is possible to construct an anonymous online contract that permits certainty in enforcing online cross-border transactions, and provides such a contract.

The role of agregate demand and supply shocks in a low-income country : evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the relative role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in affecting the output level and inflation rate in a low-income country vulnerable to various economic shocks. The study uses Bangladesh data, and following Cover et al (2006), employs a modification of the Blanchard-Quah (BQ) approach, in which the two shocks are allowed to be correlated. Strong evidence is found for the hypothesis that aggregate demand and supply shocks are interrelated in Bangladesh. For the case in which causality is assumed to be running from demand to supply shocks, it was found that an independent supply shock plays significant role for fluctuations in inflation, which was absent in the standard BQ model. The results suggest that a tightening of monetary policy may lead to an adverse effect on the long-run growth potential and some supply-side policies may be required to supplement contractionary monetary policy in combating inflation in Bangladesh.

Demographic demand systems with application to equivalence scales estimation and inequality analysis : the Australian evidence

This paper proposes and applies an alternative demographic procedure for extending a demand system to allow for the effect of household size and composition changes, along with price changes, on expenditure allocation. The demographic procedure is applied to two recent demand functional forms to obtain their estimable demographic extensions. The estimation on pooled time series of Australian Household Expenditure Surveys yields sensible and robust estimates of the equivalence scale, and of its variation with relative prices. Further evidence on the usefulness of this procedure is provided by using it to evaluate the nature and magnitude of the inequality bias of relative price changes in Australia over a period from the late 1980s to the early part of the new millennium.

Estimating import and export demand elasticities for Mauritius and South Africa

In this paper, we re-estimate the import and the export demand functions for Mauritius and South Africa using time series data. We use the bounds tests for cointegration and find evidence of a long-run relationship between import demand, income and prices for both countries. Our long run elasticities reveal that domestic income and relative prices have significant effects on the import demand for both countries, with income being the most important determinant. Furthermore, we find that while South Africa’s export demand is not responsive to relative prices or income; for Mauritius income is statistically significant.