Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

A discrete simulation approach to spatial allocation of commodity production for revenue optimisation over a local region

A simulation approach is described for the spatial allocation of crops across a region in order to maximise total revenue. The model uses inputs from GIS-based land suitability analysis to provide data on yields for a range of commodities, where the land suitability for the crops can be determined by either biophysical models or multi-criteria analysis. The objective of the study was to gain some indication of the magnitude of improvement possible in revenue, based on the convergence results for the optimisation (subject to estimated production quantities and market prices). The basic structure of the model allows for scaling up to larger problems with additional inputs and finer cell resolution. The software produces a visualisation of crop spatial allocation across the region and is compatible with statistical uncertainty analysis. The results of model simulations revealed a significant increase in revenue is possible using this approach and, when projected over the full region, suggests the possibility of significant economic benefits.

Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: prospects for fuel substitution

We examine the relationship between Chinese aggregate production and consumption of three main energy commodities: coal, oil and renewable energy. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction modeling (VECM) show that Chinese growth is led by all three energy sources. Economic growth also causes coal, oil and renewables consumption, but with negative own-price effects for coal and oil and a strong possibility of fuel substitution through positive cross-price effects. The results further show coal consumption causing pollution, while renewable energy consumption reduces emissions. No significant causation on emissions is found for oil. Hence, making coal both absolutely and relatively expensive compared to oil and renewable energy encourages shifting from coal to oil and renewable energy, thereby improving economic and environmental sustainability.

Virtual villages: networking the global archipelago

In today’s changing economy, moving rapidly beyond industrial and information priorities, the creative arts, industries and enterprises have a powerful capacity for transforming a society’s cultural and economic capabilities and growth. One of the greatest challenges for present and future workplace participants in the context of this rapid change is the need to adapt to changing roles within a capitalism which has moved beyond a focus on the production of commodities to a greater social and economic flexibility. Gee talks of the ‘new capitalism’ requiring ‘shape-shifting portfolio people’ , creative and entrepreneurial individuals who can take on multiple identities. The key to managing this change is to focus on building a capacity to design new identities, affinity groups and networks. The virtual villages project described in this paper is a creative response to building ‘shape-shifting’ skills, focusing on the power of narrative immersion through virtual world environments to explore issues for rural and regional communities. The project aims to assist local communities in geographically diverse regions to develop their capacities for designing new identities through participating in the creation of digital storylines and characters for problem-solving. This will also have the outcome of an expanded affinity group (the project participants and their digital audiences) and potentially global networks (the archipelago). The concept of virtual villages utilizes associational narrative techniques, exploring portals of virtual worlds, thresholds of community discovery and fragments of narrative as the framework. Developing associational narratives which explore and share creative problem solving across diverse virtual villages will provide both individuals and the community with the ‘shape-shifting’ capacity to situate themselves beyond current community networks and identities.

A factor analytical approach to the efficient futures market hypothesis

Most empirical evidence suggests that the efficient futures market hypothesis, henceforth referred to as EFMH, stating that spot and futures prices should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. The current article can be seen as a step in this direction. In particular, a newly developed factor analytical approach is employed, which is very general and, in addition, free of the otherwise so common incidental parameters bias in the presence of fixed effects. The approach is applied to a large panel covering 17 commodities between March 1991 and August 2012. The evidence suggests that the EFMH cannot be rejected once the panel evidence has been taken into account. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

China's "South-South" trade with Southeast Asia: unequal exchange and combined and uneven development

China’s unprecedented emergence as an economic and political power has created a new geopolitical economy for semi-industrialised and developing economies in Southeast Asia. This paper examines China’s trade relationships with Thailand and Indonesia using the concepts of uneven and combined development (UCD) and unequal exchange. The mass of surplus value obtained through China’s trade with the developed economies has flowed into the considerable expansion in China’s imports from developing countries since 2000. China has maintained a consistent trade deficit with the latter. While the developing countries concerned have benefitted from this set of relationships, the extent to which they have done so has been determined by national strategies. In countries like Thailand – where manufacturing capital and a significant working class has emerged – exports expanded on the basis of mutually advantageous technologically and skills intensive goods. These are produced with a similar organic composition of capital as in China. The result has been a further consolidation of the hegemony of manufacturing capital. Indonesia, however, has a political system and economy long dominated by resource exploitation linked fractions of capital. The result has been a surge in primary goods exports. The current commodity price cycle has meant these goods exchange at prices above their value. The current looming price correction, however, may have negative repercussions. In the meantime, the concentration in raw materials exports is helping to prevent the emergence of a circuit of productive capital in manufacturing. The evidence from these contrasting cases suggests that the degree to which developing economies can benefit from China’s own historically unparalleled combined development remains highly contingent on the strength of the combined development possibilities and efforts within these other national social formations. Above all, there is the degree to which manufacturing sectors of capital can obtain hegemony.

Australian government budget balance numbers: the hybrid nature of public sector accrual accounting

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the nature and comparability of budget balance (surplus/deficit) numbers headlined by the Australian Commonwealth Government and the governments of the six Australian States and the two Australian Territories. It does this in the context of the transition to Australian accounting standard AASB 1049 Whole of Government and General Government Sector Financial Reporting. Design/methodology/approach - A case study research method is adopted, based on a content/documentary analysis of the headline budget balance numbers in the general government sector budget statements of each of the nine governments for the eight financial years from 2004-2005 to 2011-2012. Findings - Findings indicate some variation in the measurement bases adopted and a number of departures from the measurement bases prescribed in the reporting frameworks, including AASB 1049. Findings also reveal that none of the nine governments have headlined a full accrual based budget balance number since the implementation of AASB 1049 in 2008. Research limitations/implications - While the study focuses on the Australian general government sector environment, it has significant implications in highlighting the ambiguity in the government budget balance numbers presented and the monitoring and information asymmetry problems that can arise. Research findings have wider relevance internationally in highlighting issues arising with the public sector adoption of accrual accounting. Practical implications - The paper highlights the manner in which governments have been selective in the manner in which they present important budget aggregates. This has important practical and social implications, as the budget balance number is one of the most important measures used to evaluate a government's fiscal management and responsibility. Originality/value - The paper represents the first detailed examination of aspects of the effect of the transition to AASB 1049.

State-owned enterprises, competition and product quality

We consider a general oligopoly model with consumer surplus moderated quantity competition among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), where the SOEs employ workers who are members of the state-owned worker union and produce differentiated products. We show that increasing the number of SOEs would lead to an outcome in which these enterprises choose a lower level of product quality and this, in turn, results in welfare losses for the society, depending on the degree of substitutability. Our findings are consistent with the evidence from China and uncovers important linkages that exist between worker union, product quality and competition, and that have mostly been ignored in the industrial organisation, trade and development literature.